The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Mexico for the second time this season as Vidanta Villarta hosts the inaugural Mexico Open. The course is a longer par 71, measuring at 7,456 yards with paspalum grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Core Picks
Jon Rahm ($11,300 DraftKings)
This will seem incredibly obvious, but it needs to be stated anyway. If you consider yourself a serious PGA DFS player, then you absolutely must roster Jon Rahm in cash games this week, bar none. He’s only $11,300 in one of the worst fields we will see all season long and is a staggering +350 to win. Rahm usually hovers around $11,000 every week regardless of field, which includes majors. This week, Rahm is only $1,200 more than Kevin Na, who he was a full $3,000 more than at The Masters just a few weeks ago. It’s not like the talent gap between the two has changed since then. Rahm could easily be $13,000 in this field, making him an incredible value even at his price tag.
It comes as no surprise that the Spaniard ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, Approach, Ball-Striking, and Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds. He also ranks No. 1 in our new metric, Perfect%, which is simply the percentage chance a golfer has of finishing in the optimal lineup based on thousands of simulation runs.
He currently has a 24% (when we ran our sims) chance of finishing on the winning roster, which is a 4% better than Aaron Wise. The bottom line is, if Rahm brings his A-game this week, nobody in this field can touch him.
Gary Woodland ($9,900 DraftKings)
Woodland had been rolling along prior to stubbing his toe at The Masters, but I’m willing to overlook that as he’s never really played well at Augusta. Before that, he had posted three top-eight finishes over his previous four starts, including a pair of T5s at the API and Honda Classic. Over his previous 24 rounds in this field, he ranks No. 1 in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Putting, and second in Total Strokes Gained.
Every facet of Woodland’s game is clicking on all cylinders right now, and he’s probably $500 too cheap in this field. Pairing him with Rahm will be a popular strategy in all formats.
Charles Howell III ($8,400 DraftKings)
I have cooled on Chuckie Howell a bit this season, as he hasn’t shown to have the upside that he once had. However, there are still spots where he can be good for us, and resort-style course events like we have this week is certainly one of them. Just to show how poor this field is, Howell has missed three of his past five cuts and still ranks 13th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 29th in Total Strokes Gained.
He’s far more consistent than most guys in his price range, and I like him to make the weekend in this spot, with a top-25 finish firmly within his range of potential outcomes.
Mark Hubbard ($8,000 DraftKings)
Hubbard is another guy I love targeting at these alternate-type events, as he’s shown to be a much better golfer than people realize. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, he ranks No. 6 in Total Strokes Gained. Pretty good for someone who costs just $8,000. The five guys ahead of him all cost $9,500 and above, just to put that in perspective. It is these types of pricing mistakes that we must capitalize on.
Hubbard has been tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour of late, posting top-10 finishes in each of his past three starts and finished 15th at the Honda Classic before that. This is a really nice price we’re getting, and he’s a rock-solid cash game option.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Adam Long ($7,800 DraftKings)
Long has been pretty consistent of late, making the cut in five of his past six starts, which includes a T12 his last time out at the RBC Heritage. Over his past 12 rounds in this field, he sits fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Putting, and fifth in Total Strokes Gained. Long is currently -195 to make the weekend at some respected sportsbooks, which is shorter than everyone in the $7,000 range and more than a few in the $8,000 range as well.
Long had some pretty good results in the fall swing as well, and this would be the type of field where he could do some damage at.
He’s a really strong cash game option this week.
Greyson Sigg ($7,300 DraftKings)
Sigg has been a paragon of consistency so far this season, making 12-of-16 cuts on the year, including eight of his previous nine. Many of these events have boasted strong fields as well, most notably the Farmers Insurance Open and the AMEX, where he went T34 and T25, respectively.
Sigg will not blow you away with any one part of his game but does enough in each area to make the weekend at most events. He’s been on fire with his flat stick of late as well, ranking fifth in this field in SG: Putting over his previous eight rounds.
In fields like this with so many mediocre players, targeting consistent cut makers like Sigg is always the optimal approach.
Chase Seiffert ($7,100 DraftKings)
Another resort course event means another chance to roster Chase Seiffert. The last two events he’s played have been at Puerto Rico and Punta Cana, both featuring resort courses. Seiffert made the weekend at both and finished 22nd at the latter. He’s been on fire over his past 24 rounds, ranking seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Ball-Striking, and 16th in Total Strokes Gained.
He’s simply too cheap at just $7,100 and is my favorite value play on the week.
