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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Nov 2, 2022

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Mexico this week for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. El Camaleon Mayakoba Golf Course will be the host, and it’s another shorter par 71, measuring 6,987 yards with paspalum grass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Viktor Hovland ($11,200 DraftKings)

We will start with a fairly obvious selection, as Hovland will be attempting to three-peat here in Mexico. Heaven forbid that in 2022, we could have ShotLink data at this tournament. so I could fully explain how dominant Hovland has been at El Camaleon, but you’ll just have to take my word for it.

After what felt like a bit of malaise from the Norwegian over the Summer, he’s really picked it up during the Fall Swing, having finished T5 at both the BMW PGA Championship and the ZOZO. Hovland is not cheap this week, but I much prefer him to Scottie Scheffler if paying up this week. I would never say anybody over $11K is a stone lock, but I would be a bit scared to fade Hovland this week.

Aaron Wise (10,200 DraftKings)

If you do, in fact, choose to fade Hovland, I like starting rosters with Wise, who will absolutely win again at some point this season. Long-term, Wise has been one of the best golfers in this field, ranking seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in SG: Ball-Striking, 13th in SG: Putting, and fourth in Total Strokes Gained, all over his past 48 rounds. He’s very quietly up to No. 34 in the world and is only ascending.

Wise has made six career starts at this event, having made the cut in four of them while posting a runner-up and two additional top-15s in that stretch. It’s always good to target Wise in birdie-fest type events, as he can score like few others. We get a nice discount from both Hovland and Scheffler by starting with Wise this week, making him an extremely strong cash game option.

Billy Horschel ($10,100 DraftKings)

Horschel has been playing some great golf this Fall Swing on both the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR, having posted three consecutive top-10s at the BMW PGA, Alfred Dunhill, and CJ CUP. Historically, he’s had a lot of success at Mayakoba as well, missing just one cut in six career starts with top-eight finishes in two of his past three trips. Only Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau are ranked higher in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds than Billy Ho.

Obviously, at $10K he is not cheap, but when you looked at the options priced right below him, you find golfers that are not in the same tier as him, such as Taylor Montgomery, Mav McNealy, and Tom Hoge. No disrespect to those guys, but if you are gonna attack this price range, you’re always going up to Horschel here.

Emiliano Grillo ($9,100 DraftKings)

My favorite option in the $9K range is, by far, Grillo, who has really turned it around these past few months after being absolutely dreadful for the better part of 2022. Since the John Deere Classic in July, the Argentine has posted four top-five finishes while missing just one cut in eight starts.

He’s been lighting it up in all facets of the game in that time period, ranking sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in SG: Ball-Striking, and maybe most impressively, 30th in SG: Putting. We know how big of an issue putting has been for Grill over the course of his career, so to see him putting this well of late makes him very dangerous. Another feather in his cap is that he’s historically a good putter on paspalum greens, which is what El Camaleon features.

In six starts at Mayakoba, Grillo has three top-10s and an additional T15 as well. When you put everything together, Grillo is a great play this week at just $9,100.

PGA DFS Value Picks

J.J. Spaun ($7,300 DraftKings)

Spaun is slightly underpriced for his talent and for the way he’s been playing this fall. His last start at the CJ CUP was all over the place, with two rounds in the 60s and then a final round 76, but prior to that, he finished T25 at the ZOZO and T15 at the Shriners.

He’s also got strong history at El Camaleon, having made all six of his cuts with four top 30s, including a T3. The mid-range options are not great this week, which will lead to builds where you start with multiple $10K+ options. With that in mind, you’re going to need to find value plays in the low $7K range, and Spaun should certainly be on that list.

Chris Kirk ($7,200 DraftKings)

Kirk will not blow you away with anything he does, but he’s a veteran that makes cuts, knows how to find fairways, and hit his short irons. All of those traits will be incredibly valuable this week as if you miss the fairway at El Camaleon, you’re not going to have much success.

Another guy who’s been incredibly consistent here, Kirk, has made all five of his cuts at Mayakoba, with a T7 mixed in among those. He ranks 11th in this field over his past 48 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green and 29th in Total Strokes Gained. There’s nothing incredibly attractive about clicking Kirk’s name, but he’s likely to make the weekend in this spot, and thats enough at this price tag when you’re trying to jam in studs up top.

Joel Dahmen ($7,200 DraftKings)

After a pretty subpar summer, Dahmen has been really good this fall, posting a pair of top-16 finishes at the ZOZO and Sanderson Farms, as well as a T37 at the Shriners. Over this stretch, Dahmen ranks 16th in SG: Ball-Striking and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

You obviously know where I’m going next. Dahmen’s history at El Camaleon is top-notch, making five-of-five cuts with three top-25s, which include a T6 in 2019. Dahmen got his first-ever PGA TOUR victory on a resort-style course with paspalum greens at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021, so it’s not surprising to see his strong history here. At just $7,200 this week, I like him to continue his recent strong play at a bargain bin price.

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