GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the WM Phoenix Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Feb 7, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR heads to Arizona this week for the WM Phoenix Open, hosted by TPC Scottsdale. This course measures as a 7,261-yard par 71 with poa greens.

We are also back to a full-field, 36-hole cut event as well.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

With Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele both withdrawing, Scottie Scheffler becomes an even better play this week, even at $11,600. Scheffler was not at his best last week, which, of course, came down to the fact that he could not make one single putt on Saturday. He struggled a bit off the tee as well in his final round but gained 2.3 strokes on approach, so I’m not too worried. In case you live under a rock, Scheffler is the two-time defending champion at the WMPO and will be looking for the three-peat this week.

It’s nothing new at this point. If Scheffler putts even remotely close to neutral for the week, he’s going to finish inside the top three, and if he doesn’t, he’ll finish in the top 10. You know what you’re paying for, and there’s no safer option on the board.

If you don’t feel like paying all the way up, Justin Thomas is your man. JT is likely going to be the highest-owned golfer on the slate this week, but he’s playing too well to ignore right now. After having a miserable 2023 season, he found something at the Wyndham Championship in the final event of the season before carrying that into the fall. Overall, JT has five straight top-six finishes across the PGA and DP World Tour and ranks No. 1 in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained in that stretch.

He is fully back to his old self, which couldn’t have come at a better time, considering TPC Scottsdale might be his favorite course on the circuit. JT has three top-four finishes, a T8 and a T13 over his past five starts at this event, and ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained per round at this course behind only Hideki Matsuyama and Scottie Scheffler. If Xander and VIktor withdrew earlier in the week rather than Monday morning, JT would be more expensive. Instead, you can save $1,600 on Scottie and keep all the upside.

Player Pool: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas

DraftKings $9,000 Range

The $9,000 range is filled with unknowns in my opinion. Max Homa doesn’t boast the best course history here and did not play particularly well last week. I only roster Sam Burns in certain spots, and this does not feel like one of them, while then we have an out of form Matt Fitzpatrick and Sungae Im, both of whom have strong course history at TPC Scottsdale. Jordan Spieth I will reserve for Augusta only, while I never ever play Cam Young or Sahith Theegala at these price tags.

This means Wyndham Clark is the lone survivor. Clark is coming off the win at Pebble Beach last week, where he played the round of his life on Saturday, shooting a 12-under-par 60 to break the course record. Clark had been leading up to this with his recent play, and I wrote him up last week, so it’s not entirely surprising to me that he won. He did not play that well in his two post-victory starts last season, but he does have a good course history at TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T10 last year. Clark got as big of a price jump as you’re going to see in a field like this, going from $7,400 to $9,000, but it probably was not enough when you factor in the WDs, so he is quite enticing in this spot.

Player Pool: Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Wyndham Clark

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

I mentioned already how the $9,000 range is barren. Well, it’s the complete opposite in the $8k range, as you can make a strong case for about eight of the 11 golfers in the range.

J.T. Poston has finished T20 or better in each of his past four starts, which include a pair of top-six finishes at the Sony and Sentry. It’s been his short game carrying him during this stretch, which is no surprise whatsoever. Unlike many other sub-par ball-strikers, Poston’s short game can be counted on weekly, as he ranks No. 1 in that department over the past 48 rounds. He missed the cut at this event last year but finished T26 or better in three of his previous four starts here, including a T11 in 2021.

Benny An did not have his A-game last week at Pebble Beach but still finished T31, which is just a testament to how far he’s come as a golfer. He was coming off back-to-back top-four finishes at Sentry and Sony, where he gained 13.2 combined strokes from tee to green. An has not played this event since 2021 but has never missed a cut here in five starts while posting a pair of top-nine finishes and two top-23s. Fire him back up this week.

Min Woo Lee has quickly become a DFS darling and will likely be quite chalky again this week after receiving a $400 price decrease from his last start. Min Woo has never played TPC Scottsdale before but has had success all over the world in his career, and if you’re unfamiliar, he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball and putters in the world. He’s too cheap for his talent level this week.

After Eric Cole somewhat predictable struggled at Torrey Pines, he just as predictably smashed last week at Pebble, finishing T14. The T14 marked his fourth top-21 finish across five starts in 2024. Cole has never played the WMPO before, but it shouldn’t be anything he can’t handle, especially when you see that players of his archetype have had success here, i.e. Jordan Spieth. Until he gives us a reason not to, Cole will continue to be in play.

Hideki Matsuyama continues to be hit or miss, but this should still be a spot where we can roster him with confidence. He’s a former two-time winner here while failing to miss a cut in 10 starts this decade. He’s also finished inside the top eight three other times as well and ranks No. 1 in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at this course. Torrey Pines was a Hideki Course, and he finished T13 there, so I expect him to play well this week.

Adam Scott has played well since the fall began and continued that in 2024, with a T20 last week at Pebble. Scott gained 4.2 strokes ball-striking last week in his two measured rounds, and will always be in play for me at this price tag when he’s in form. He’s made one start at the WMPO, a T38 in 2022. Scott is a veteran who rarely misses cuts, which is way more valuable than people realize.

Adam Hadwin absolutely loves TPC Scottsdale, having made each of his past eight cuts here with three top-26 finishes and a T10, which came last year. He’s also had a strong start to his 2024, finishing T14 at Sentry and T6 at the AMEX before a respectable T39 last week. Another strong cut-maker, Hadwin makes a ton of sense at just $8,000 this week when you factor in his recent form and course history.

Finally, we have Beau Hossler to close out the range. Hossler is very J.T. Poston-like, as he’s not a strong ball-striker, but he has one of the best short games on TOUR. He can also make a lot of birdies, ranking 16th in the field across his past 48 rounds in that department. His history at this event is so-so, as he has two missed cuts in six starts with a pair of top-17s mixed in. Overall, Hossler has been playing quite well, coming off a T14 at Pebble Beach and T6 at Torrey Pines. There’s no reason to think he won’t continue to play well this week.

Player Pool: J.T. Poston, Ben An, Min Woo Lee, Eric Cole, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Adam Hadwin, Beau Hossler

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim has been cooking lately, especially with his ball-striking, where he sits fifth in this field over the past 16 rounds. In four starts thus far in 2024, Kim has three top-25 finishes, including a T13 last week at Pebble, where he gained 4.1 strokes ball-striking and 5.8 strokes from tee to green in his two measured rounds. Kim’s course history here started off quite poor, but he’s finished T26 and T23 each of the past two years and is coming into play this week in great form. He’s underpriced at just $7,800

Another guy who feels underpriced is Akshay Bhatia. The 22-year-old has six top-21 finishes across his past eight starts, including a pair of T13s at Farmers and the Sony. During this run, Bhatia ranks 10th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, sixth in SG: Putting, and fourth in Total Strokes Gained. He’s never played this event before but is simply too talented a ball-striker for someone who costs just $7,800. I think he makes for an intriguing outright as well at 60/1.

Denny McCarthy was pretty strong again last week, finishing T26, which was on the heels of his T24 at the Sony. He finally gained strokes ball-striking at Pebble but uncharacteristically lost 2.1 around the greens. Either way, McCarthy has been making cuts, and I don’t see that stopping this week, even despite his somewhat poor course history at TPC Scottsdale.

Emiliano Grillo has been a mixed bag at the WMPO in the past, but does have five made cuts in eight starts, including a T22 in 2021. His putting has surprisingly become his best weapon in recent weeks, ranking No. 1 in the field in SG: Putting over the past eight rounds, which is three tournaments worth of data. During this stretch, Grillo has finishes of T14, T20, and T7 at Pebble Beach, Farmers, and Sony. He was brutal with his irons last week but gained 6.1 strokes combined on approach across his previous two starts.

Mark Hubbard is on a nice run right now, and when that’s the case, we need to ride the heater. He’s coming off a T4 last week at Pebble and a T20 at Farmers the week before. He gained a whopping 8.4 strokes on approach at Torrey Pines and then 4.8 strokes putting last week. He’s kind of all over the place but is doing a bunch of things well, just not all at once. Hubbs missed the cut here last year but made each of his previous four at this event while posting a T9 in 2020. He’s a fine value at $7,400.

Tom Hoge had the most Tom Hoge week ever last week at Pebble. He was brutal both off the tee and around the greens but caught fire with his irons and putter en route to his T6. This is what Hoge does all the time, as he’s one of the best approach players on TOUR and can have spike weeks with the putter but literally cannot do anything else. I am willing to go back to him this week after three straight made cuts and two top-17 finishes. His history at the WMPO is hit or miss as well, where he’s missed three cuts in six starts but has a T25 and T14. Overall, Hoge ranks third in the field in SG: Approach and fourth in Total Strokes gained over this mini-run he’s on.

As long as Adam Schenk is priced at $7,200, he’s going to be in play every week. He used to be far more inconsistent, but he really turned his game around last season when he made the TOUR Championship and finished T6. Schenk wasn’t great at Pebble last week, but he did close with a Saturday 66, which was on the heels of a T25 at the AMEX the week prior. Long term, he ranks 24th in this field in Total Strokes Gained but is still priced as the 43rd most expensive golfer. He’s coming off a T23 at this event last year, which would be more than enough at his price this week.

Kurt Kitayama might be my favorite play on the board this week at this ridiculous $7,200 price tag. He’s coming off a T39 finish at Pebble, where he did everything well except putt. In his two measured rounds at PB (Spyglass had no shotlink Data), Kitayama gained a whopping 6.7 strokes from tee to green. Unfortunately, he lost 2.7 with the flat stick. This has been a theme of late, as Kitayama ranks third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 120th in SG: Putting over his past eight rounds. He’s laying the groundwork for success, and he won’t putt this poorly every week. Last year, he finished T23 here in his lone start, and I like him to build on that this year.

Erik Van Rooyen posted a T20 finish last week at Pebble Beach, where he gained 2.61 strokes from tee to green in his two rounds. The T20 marked EVR’s third top-25 finish in four starts to open the 2024 season. He’s rolling right now, ranking ninth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking and 30th in Total Strokes Gained over this stretch. He looks like a completely different player than years past and is not priced appropriately for the way he’s been playing.

Player Pool: Si Woo Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, Mark Hubbard, Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk, Kurt Kitayama, Erik Van Rooyen