GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Wells Fargo Championship on DraftKings

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
May 8, 2024

For the PGA TOUR’s sixth signature event of the season, we head to Quail Hollow Golf Club (par 71, 7,558 yards, POA trivialis greens) in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. Outside of 2022, 2020, and 2017, Quail Hollow has hosted every Wells Fargo Championship since its inception in 2003. The club also hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. At last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, Wyndham Clark won for the first time on the PGA TOUR, finishing at -19, four strokes clear of the field. With this being a signature event, only 70 golfers will be competing this week, including all of the PGA TOUR’s best players except Scottie Scheffler, who is out due to the birth of his child. Additionally, there will be no cut for the Wells Fargo Championship this week, while all previous editions of this tournament featured a cut.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Rory McIlroy ($11,800) – Tom Fazio has made major renovations to Quail Hollow over the last three decades, and McIlroy is always a sharp target on courses designed by the great architect. The Irishman has produced six top-five finishes in 13 starts at Quail Hollow, including three victories. He ranks first in career strokes gained when we compare this field’s histories on Fazio designs, using the Betsperts Rabbit Hole tool. Furthermore, McIlroy ranks first in total strokes gained we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds at events that feature no cut. With Shane Lowry as his teammate, McIlroy is coming off a win at the team-based Zurich Classic, and he is the clear favorite to win this week with Scheffler absent.

DraftKings $9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500) – After posting a disappointing T49 at the RBC Heritage, Fleetwood should get back on track with a high finish this week. The Englishman had carded three top-10 finishes in his previous five starts before teeing it up at Harbour Town, and he has finished T5 and T14 at the last two Wells Fargo Championships played at Quail Hollow. In fact, Fleetwood has finished inside the top-10 in three of his past four starts at a Fazio design.

Max Homa ($9,400) – Homa has thrived at Quail Hollow in the past, with a T8 at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship and win at this event in 2019. The 33-year-old has finished T16 or better in five of his 10 starts this season – including a T3 at the Masters last month – and he has collectively gained strokes with his irons and putter in three of his past four starts. Homa is a safe bet for a top-15 finish this weekend and is a great high-end value at this price.

Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Justin Thomas ($8,500) – After missing the cut at the Masters, Thomas bounced back in a big way at the RBC Heritage, with a T5 finish. This marked the two-time major champion’s best finish at Harbour Town, and Thomas gained strokes in every major category during this start. Like the Wells Fargo Championship, the RBC Heritage is one of the PGA TOUR’s signature events that feature the circuit’s best players, and in his four starts at these tournaments this season, Thomas has produced three top-12 finishes. Plus, the 31-year-old won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, and he ranks third in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at no-cut events, via the Rabbit Hole. Looking to build off that impressive showing at Harbour Town, Thomas should flourish at Quail Hollow and is vastly underpriced for his upside. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Alabama product carries +2500 odds to win the Wells Fargo Championship, which are the same odds as Viktor Hovland, who is notably more expensive for DFS on DraftKings at $9,200.

Tony Finau ($8,000) – Finau is coming off a T12 at the RBC Heritage, in which he finished the event top six in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach. Finau has now recorded a top-20 finish in five of his last nine starts, and he ranks top 12 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, and 450-500-yard par four efficiency when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds. That latter ranking is especially crucial this week, with six of the 11 par fours at Quail Hollow falling in this range and five straight winners at this par 71 finishing the tournament in the top 10 in efficiency on the 450-500-yard par fours of this track. Finau has generated a top-30 finish in four of his eight starts at Quail Hollow and is a standout value at this reasonable salary.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Will Zalatoris ($7,900) – Zalatoris always steps it up in world-class fields, and he is far too cheap for his upside. The 27-year-old has provided two top-five finishes in three starts at signature events this season, and he just finished T9 at the Masters last month. Zalatoris missed the cut in his lone start at Quail Hollow in 2021, but we should ignore this one-start sample, as he is a strong match for the course. Zalatoris ranks eighth in SG: Approach this season, and he ranks 14^th in total strokes gained when we analyze this field’s resumes on Fazio courses, via the Rabbit Hole.

Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott loves teeing it up on Fazio designs. Including a T5 last season, the Aussie has three career top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, and he ranks fifth in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s histories on Fazio creations, via the Rabbit Hole. Scott has finished inside the top 30 in six of his eight starts this season and is a safe target for cash games this week.

Tom Hoge ($7,200) – Hoge is having an incredible season as a ball striker, ranking second only to Scheffler in SG: Approach, which has translated into seven top-25 finishes in 14 starts for the veteran. Hoge hasn’t been great at Quail Hollow in the past, making 2-of-5 cuts at the venue, but the 34-year-old has never faced the famous track in better form as a ball striker. He has risen to the occasion of competing at signature events this season, with four top-18 finishes in five starts at these evaluated tournaments. Clark led his field in SG: Approach during his victory at Quail Hollow last season, and Hoge’s stellar irons give him top-20 upside this weekend.

DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range

Rickie Fowler ($6,900) – Fowler won the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow and has finished T21st or better in eight of his 11 starts at the track. The veteran ranks fourth in total strokes gained when compare this field’s histories at Fazio courses, and he returns to Quail Hollow this week in convincing form, with his last two starts being a T30 at the Masters and a T18 at the RBC Heritage. Fowler gained strokes with his irons at both these tournaments and is arguably the best value on the board at this cheap salary.

Lucas Glover ($6,700) – Including a win in 2011, Glover has generated seven top-30 finishes at Quail Hollow, and the former major champion has produced five top-30 finishes in 11 starts this season. Ranking top 12 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach, Glover’s ball striking has remained stellar this season. If he can find some luck on these greens at Quail Hollow that he knows very well, Glover is a real threat to finish inside the top 20 this weekend.