The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Maryland this week as TPC Potomac hosts the Wells Fargo Championship. The course is a shorter par 70, measuring at 7,107 yards with bent grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Core Picks
Rory McIlroy ($11,500 DraftKings)
Not too much to say here, as McIlroy is the best player in this field by a pretty wide margin. The last time we had this scenario present itself was at the Valero a few weeks back, where McIlroy seemed incredibly disinterested and simply used the event as a tuneup for Augusta. It should be different this week, however, as the Irishman is coming in as the defending champ, albeit at a different course as this event was played at Quail Hollow last season.
McIlroy ranks No. 1 in our Perfect% metric and is projected to make the optimal lineup in a whopping 32% of simulations. Next closest is Tony Finau at 21%. McIlroy ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained and sits second in SG: Tee-to-Green across his past 48 rounds. If he brings his A-game al a Jon Rahm from last week, he could lap this field.
Corey Conners ($10,100 DraftKings)
Conners is on a nice roll right now, coming off a T12 at the RBC Heritage and T6 at the Masters. He’s also one of the handful of guys who played at TPC Potomac before, finishing T41 at the 2018 Quicken Loans National. He’s obviously a much more polished player than he was four years ago, but it’s nice to see he has some familiarity with the course. We like to target Conners at shorter tracks where his lack of distance is not a hindrance and can let his pinpoint iron play shine.
The Canadian ranks third in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and fourth in Total Strokes Gained across his past 48 rounds, and all signs point to him contending this week.
Fire him up in all formats.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000 DraftKings)
Fitz uncharacteristically missed the cut at the RBC Heritage, which was very surprising as it’s one of his favorite tracks, but it could have easily been a bit of Masters fatigue, so we will forgive him. Prior to that, he had posted five top-14 finishes in six starts which dates back to the Hero.
Another guy who shines on shorter tracks, the Englishman ranks fifth in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds and also ranks fourth in our Perfect%. Fitz rarely misses two consecutive cuts, and I would be shocked if he didn’t find himself inside the top 20 come Sunday evening.
He’s my favorite cash game play on the board.
Max Homa ($8,600 DraftKings)
Homa has been playing too well this season to only be $8,600 in this field. He’s only missed one cut so far in 2022, and that was back at the Farmers in January. Before his T48 at Augusta, he had posted five top-17 finishes across his previous six starts.
In that stretch, the California native ranks eighth in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and seventh in Total Strokes Gained. A former winner of this event, Homa should be well rested after taking three weeks off after The Masters. He’s one of the safest cash plays on the slate at his price.
Seamus Power ($8,300 DraftKings)
It looked as though the nice run Power was on was gonna come to an end after he missed three straight cuts towards the end of February, but he quickly rebounded with back-to-back strong finishes at THE PLAYERS and Masters. He’s really made significant improvements in his game and has become someone we can rely on most weeks to make the cut.
Despite costing only $8,300, Power sits fifth in our Pefect% metric, slated to make the optimal lineup over 17.5% of the time. He also ranks second in this field in GIR% and 10th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds.
He is simply too cheap for his talent level in a field like this and should be cash game staple.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Brian Harman ($7,800 DraftKings)
Harman has been a little hit or miss lately, missing two of his past five cuts, but he’s been a bit unlucky, it appears as his rolling numbers look good in that period. He sits eighth in this field in driving accuracy, 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 18th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 16 rounds.
Shorter tracks are Harman’s specialty, and most sportsbooks see it that way, as his make the cut odds are shorter than most guys priced above him.
He is one of the better values on the board this week.
Joel Dahmen ($7,600 DraftKings)
Dahmen bounced back from his withdrawal from the Corales Puntacana Championship to post a T12 at the RBC Heritage in his last start. Prior to his WD, he had only missed two cuts on the season in 14 starts, including two top-10 finishes as well.
Taking a long-term view, Dahmen’s numbers look great, as he ranks eighth in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR%, and 27th in Total Strokes Gained, all over his past 48 rounds in this field. He’s become an incredibly consistent golfer, and he even finished T23 in his lone start at TPC Potomac in 2018.
He’s as strong a cash game play as it gets in this field.
Sepp Straka ($7,600 DraftKings)
Not quite sure what Straka has to do to get his salary raised, but we can simply thank DraftKings for the error and play him this week. The big Austrian has three top-10 finishes over his past five starts, which includes his maiden PGA TOUR victory at the Honda Classic and, most recently, a T3 at the RBC Heritage.
Since the calendar flipped to 2022, Straka has missed just one cut in 10 starts while ranking No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 16 rounds.
He’s on a heater right now, and there is zero reason to fade him this week.
