GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Valspar Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 15, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR finishes up its Florida swing week with the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort will be the host and is a 7,341-yard par 71 with Bermuda grass greens. The field is not nearly as strong as we have seen in recent weeks since this is not an elevated event.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Justin Thomas ($10,900 DraftKings)

JT let everyone down last week at THE PLAYERS, but he’s the best player in a field bereft of high-end talent, making him pretty difficult to get away from in any format. Despite only posting one finish better than T20 in 2023 thus far, Thomas still ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds. Whether you pair him with another $10K+ option or simply play him in balanced builds, It’s hard to envision JT not being the highest-owned player in the field this week.

He’s historically played well at Innisbrook over the years, finishing T18 or better in four of his five starts, including a T3 last season. JT can be infuriating to watch at times, but there’s not a ton to like this week anywhere, making him one of the premier plays on the slate.

Sam Burns ($10,200 DraftKings)

Burns has been playing miserably of late, but thankfully he righted the ship a bit last week just in time for his favorite event on the calendar. For those unfamiliar, Burns is the reigning, defending, two-time Valspar champion of the world. He’s clearly not the same player that was last season, but we do know a few things: he can score and absolutely putt the lights out, especially on Bermuda greens.

Burns actually gained two strokes on approach during his final round at THE PLAYERS last week, which is enough for me to trust him in this spot. Even prior to his two wins at this event, he posted a T30 and T12 in his first two starts at Innisbrook, clearly showing his affinity for this track.

I have absolutely no problem playing Burns over JT this week in any format. Pairing them gets tricky, but it certainly can be done. Also, both JT and Burns are my preferred spend-ups in this range, over both Spieth and Fitz.

Adam Hadwin ($9,200 DraftKings)

Hadwin might just be the best play on the slate this week. He’s coming in with phenomenal form, having made the cut in nine of his 10 starts to begin the 2022-23 season while posting three top 10s. Hadwin is getting it done in every facet of the game during this stretch, ranking ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Ball-Striking, 35th in SG: Putting, and sixth in SG: Total.

He’s also got some of the best course histories you’re going to find in this field at Innisbrook. Hadwin won this event back in 2017 while finishing T7 last season and T12 in 2018. Based on his odds on most sports books this week, his $9,200 price tag is simply too cheap, making him an elite source of value.

Justin Suh (8,900 DraftKings)

This kid is absolutely for real. After winning the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour Championship, Suh struggled quite a bit out of the gate, missing three straight cuts to begin the 2022-23 season. However, after that, he began to find it, and it’s been absolutely full steam ahead over his past six starts. Suh finished T20 at Torrey Pines before posting a pair of top-six finishes over his past three weeks at the Honda and PLAYERS.

Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but Suh ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Total, No. 2 in SG: Tee-to-Green, and fifth in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 12 rounds. He is absolutely live to win this week, which could make his $8,900 salary look incredibly silly come Sunday evening.

The time to hop on this train is now before Suh continues this inevitable ascension.

Brandon Wu (8,500 DraftKings)

Wu has quietly been playing great golf of late, fresh off back-to-back top-19 finishes at two really tough events; THE PLAYERS and Honda. Prior to that, he had finished runner-up at Pebble Beach. During this run, he’s been really getting it done with his ball-striking, ranking 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th on approach over his past 16 rounds.

In his lone start at this event, Wu finished T33 last season, and when you combine his recent play of late with the lack of star power in this field, he could absolutely make some noise this week. The 23-year-old won the 2020 Korn Ferry Championship and will absolutely break through at the next level one of these weeks.

It feels weird to pay $8,500 for him, but he remains a great play, nonetheless.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Stephan Jaeger ($7,800 DraftKings)

Back to the Jaeger well we go this week as the only thing this guy does is make the cut. He’s made the weekend in 11 of the 13 standard cut events he’s played this season while missing only one since the end of October. Despite the consistency, his putting woes have kept him from posting any high finishes in this stretch. Jaeger’s ball-striking, however, has remained elite, where he sits 10th in that department over his past 24 rounds in this field.

He also ranks ninth in SG: Total over that span, which makes his $7,800 price tag look very enticing this week. Roster construction becomes tough if you start with a double pay-up this week, so if you plan to roster Jaeger or the guy we will be discussing next, it’s best to start with either JT/Burns and then drop to Hadwin for your second golfer.

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,700 DraftKings)

Vegas did not play well last week at THE PLAYERS, but I am going to completely throw those results out the window due to the volatility of TPC Sawgrass. Prior to that, he’d been rolling, making four consecutive cuts with three top-25 finishes in that stretch.

Vegas, since returning from injury earlier this season, has been dominating from tee-to-green, ranking sixth in this field over his past 24 rounds there, including second in SG: Off-the-Tee and 21st on approach. If he could simply get some putts to drop this week, Vegas could find himself in contention come Sunday.

It feels like he’s way too cheap for his talent level in a field like this at just $7,700.

Adam Schenk ($7,100 DraftKings)

It never feels good to write up Schenk, but there are very few ways to roster the guys you want up top without dropping down to some shakier plays this week. Schenk is perennially in this low $7K range, it feels like, forcing you to make a decision like this almost every week, but he has been playing pretty well of late, making six of his past seven cuts.

In four career starts at Innisbrook, Schenk has made the cut twice and posted a T18 finish in 2021. Most of his success is derived from his elite putting, which is a bit frightening, but somehow he manages to grind his way to the weekend in most events.

Over his past 24 rounds, Schenk sits seventh in the field in SG: Putting and 19th in SG: Around-the-Green. If he gives us just an average ball-striking week, he will find his way to grind out a T37 finish for us, which is more than enough at this price.

Mark Hubbard ($7,100 DraftKings)

Hubbard has picked up his game of late after looking completely lost to start 2023. He finished T42 at the Honda and then T35 last week at THE PLAYERS. He had looked great during the Fall Swing as well, posting a T5 at Sanderson and two other top-30s.

During his recent run of good play, Hubbard sits 21st in SG: Ball-Striking and 18th in SG: Total and this mini two-event stretch is a harbinger of things to come.

He’s absolutely too cheap at just $7,100.

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