The Aloha swing continues this week with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club (par 70, 7,044 yards, Bermuda greens) in Honolulu. This course has hosted every Sony Open, and the late Grayson Murray is the defending champion of this event, finishing at -17 a year ago and edging out Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An in a three-man playoff. There will be 144 players competing this week, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000)
After some questionable performances in the fall, Matsuyama cruised to a three-shot victory at the Sentry last week while shooting a tournament-record -35. Matsuyama incredibly shot 8-under or better in all four of his rounds at the Plantation Course, and now, the former Masters champion heads Waialae CC, where he won three years ago. To combine with his always stellar ball striking, Matsuyama gained a career-high 10.7 strokes on the Bermuda greens of the Plantation Course last week. If he can carry this momentum as a putter over to Waialae CC, which also presents Bermuda putting surfaces, a second straight win is absolutely on the table for Matsuyama. In our PGA Models, the 32-year-old carries the highest Perfect% on the slate by a mile, which is the chance that he is in the perfect lineup for this week based on our simulations here at FanatsyLabs.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Russell Henley ($9,900)
Henley is always at his best at courses with Bermuda greens, and he is well worth this high salary this week. Three of Henley’s four career wins have come at a venue with Bermuda putting surfaces, including a three-shot victory at Waialae CC in 2013. On top of this convincing win, Henley has finished inside the top five at two of the past three Sony Opens. Evident from these results, the veteran loves competing at Waialae CC, and with three top-seven finishes in his last seven starts coming into this week, Henley is poised to add another high finish to his Sony Open resume. When we compare this field’s last rounds at courses with Bermuda greens, Henley ranks second in strokes gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole.
Maverick McNealy ($9,200)
McNealy continues to play the best golf of his career. At the Plantation Course last week, McNealy certainly didn’t show that it was his first attempt at the track, carding a T8 finish. McNealy has now finished T16th, T6th, T17th, first, and T8th in the last five starts and sits at a career-best No. 28 in the world golf rankings. During this five-start stretch, the 29-year-old has gained strokes on approach at every event, and he has shot under par in all but one of his rounds, with that lone outlier being an even par 70 during his win at the RSM Classic. If excluding Matsuyama, you could make a strong case that McNealy is in the best form in this entire field, and his brilliant run of golf should continue at Waialae CC, where McNealy has never missed a cut in three starts and finished T7th two years ago.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Taylor Pendrith ($8,800)
Pendrith posted a T10 at last year’s Sony Open, and he returns to Waialae CC in even better form this time around. Coming off a T13 at the Sentry last week, Pendrith has made 12 cuts in a row, and he has produced four top-eight finishes in his seven most recent starts. Pendrith now sits at a career-best No.44 in the world golf rankings, which is a whopping 60 spots higher than his ranking heading into last year’s Sony Open. Pendrith has collectively gained strokes on approach and with his putter in five of his past six starts and is undoubtedly one of the best targets this week.
Luke Clanton ($8,400)
Clanton is the top-ranked amateur in the world, and his incredible talent has been on full display in his seven starts at the PGA TOUR level, with four top-10 finishes. Most recently, Clanton finished runner-up to McNealy at the RSM Classic by one shot, which was Clanton’s first attempt at the event. The 21-year-old will be making his Sony Open debut this week and is a perfect match for Waialae CC. When we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds, Clanton ranks first in Birdie-or-Better percentage, third in par-4 efficiency, and sixth in SG: Approach. Furthermore, when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with Bermuda greens, Clanton easily ranks first strokes gained per round at 1.93. For some perspective, Henley ranks second at 1.32. Clanton contending this week is a real possibility and he is a tough fade at this $8,400 salary, which is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings since his second start on the PGA TOUR back in June.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,800)
Hughes has been outstanding with a top-eight finish in four of his past five starts. Hughes has made 11 cuts in a row, with this cut streak beginning last June, and his short game has been the key to his success recently, with him ranking first in SG: Around-the-Green and first in SG: Putting when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds. Three of the last six winners at Wailae CC have ranked top three in SG: Putting during their victories, and Hughes’ sensational flat stick should lead him to a strong finish at the Sony Open. In six starts at this event, Hughes has carded two top-30 finishes.
Daniel Berger ($7,500)
Along with Clanton, Berger finished runner-up at the RSM Classic, and the veteran notably carded a 7-under 63 during the third round of this tournament, which is the lowest score Berger has posted on the PGA TOUR in over four years. This finish marked Berger’s sixth made cut in a row and third top-25 finish during this streak. It’s safe to say the former No.12 ranked golfer in the world is ascending right now, and Berger is vastly underpriced for the upside he brings at Waialae CC, which is a course he knows very well. In six starts at the par 70, Berger has never missed a cut, and he has recorded three top-15 finishes.
Matt Kuchar ($7,200)
Kuchar has finished inside the top 30 in six of his last 12 starts, which is attributed to some excellent ball striking, with the veteran ranking fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds. Additionally, Kuchar has been extremely successful at Waialae CC. In his last 11 starts at the par 70, Kuchar has finished T13th or better eight times, including a four-shot win in 2019. Plus, when we compare this field’s history at Waialae CC, Kuchar ranks second in strokes gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole. This is the cheapest Kuchar has ever been priced for a Sony Open on DraftKings, and he is a cash game staple at this low salary.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Greyson Sigg ($6,800)
Sigg is safe pick to make the cut this week. The Georgia product owns a spotless 3-for-3 record in terms of made cuts at the Sony Open, and he has posted a top-25 finish in four of his past six starts entering this week, most notably with a T4 at the Procore Championship. Sigg ranks ninth in par-4 efficiency when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, which bodes well for his return to Waialae CC this week. This track is a classic par 70 that features 12 par fours, and four of the past five winners at Waialae CC have finished the week top-six in par-4 efficiency.
Brendan Todd ($6,700)
Todd has never been cheaper for a Sony Open on DraftKings, and the veteran is a viable punt for cash games. Todd has made 9-of-10 cuts at Waialae CC and produced five top-30 finishes at the par 70, two of which have come in the past two years. As for his current form, Todd has made eight of his past 10 cuts, with three top-25 finishes during this timeframe. The course manager finished last season 24th in SG: Putting and Todd is a solid bet to advance through the cut this week.
