The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Hilton Head, South Carolina this week as Harbour Town Golf Links hosts the RBC Heritage Open. The course is a short par 71, measuring at 7,100 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Core Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500 DraftKings)
Fitz has been on some kind of roll of late, as his T14 at the Master’s was his sixth 14th place finish or better over his previous seven starts. Over that span, he ranks 11th in this field in SG: Approach, 20th in SG: Putting, and ninth in Total Strokes Gained. He now comes back to Harbour Town, a place in which he once described as his favorite course on the PGA TOUR circuit.
His results largely back that up over the years, as in seven career starts at the RBC, he has four top-24 finishes, including a T4 last season. Fitz is playing the best golf of his career right now and looked great at Augusta, gaining strokes off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green. He’s the best play in the $9k range and a terrific option to start cash game rosters with.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,100 DraftKings)
Much like Fitz, Niemann as also professed his love for Harbour Town, and in his lone start here back in 2020, he finished T5. Keep in mind that was the second event back after the COVID layoff, and the field that week was loaded, making his high finish that much more impressive. Since then, he’s only posted a wire-to-wire victory at Riviera, so you probably don’t need me to tell you the kid is a superstar in the making.
Just to put in perspective how dominant Niemann was at this course back in 2020, of all players in this field, he averages 2.8 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round, which ranks first by a large margin. Checking in behind Niemann is Emiliano Grillo, who averages 1.8 strokes tee-to-green per round. The 22-year old is likely to build on that this week and is a bargain at just $9,100
Webb Simpson ($8,800 DraftKings)
There are certain courses on TOUR known as “Webb Tracks,” and Harbour Town happens to be one of those. Since 2013 he’s posted finishes of T9, 1st, T16, T5, T11, T2. DraftKings did us a favor pricing him at just $8,800, which you can argue based on his history is about $500 too cheap.
His form has not been great lately, but he is coming off back-to-back made cuts at the Masters and Valspar, which is more than enough for me to consider him in cash this week. You do not wanna look back on Sunday afternoon when Webb is on the first page of the leaderboard and wonder why you faded him. This is a layup, folks.
Alex Noren ($8,300 DraftKings)
Noren has been red-hot of late, posting top-12 finishes in three of his past four starts, including both a T6 and T5 in that span. In three career starts at Harbour Town. he’s made yet to miss a cut while finishing T28 or better in all three trips. Known for his elite short game, it’s been Noren’s ball-striking that’s carried him during this stretch, as the Swede ranks eighth in this field on approach and 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Another guy who DraftKings priced a bit too cheap and someone who is firmly in cash game consideration. He boasts a ton of upside for the price and may go overlooked by those who want to jam in some of the studs at the top. Safety is the name of the game when playing cash, and I’d say someone who hasn’t missed a cut since January is pretty safe.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,200 DraftKings)
Very quietly, Fleetwood has had a bit of a resurgence of late. Since his missed cut at the Honda Classic, he’s gone T20, T22, T16, and most recently, T14 at Augusta. His rolling numbers back that up as well, as the Englishman ranks 22nd in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Total Strokes Gained over his previous 12 rounds.
He gained 4.33 strokes off-the-tee at the Masters, which ranked third in the field behind Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick. In two starts at Harbour Town, he has a T25 and a MC (last year); however, the missed cut came directly on the number, and he even shot a second-round 65. It’s been about two years since we’ve seen Fleetwood at his best, but he seems to be getting back to his old form, and $8,200 is a nice price here.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Maverick McNealy ($7,900 DraftKings)
I am not sure what DraftKings was thinking here with this price on McNealy. He’s missed just one cut on the year, which came all the way back at the Shriner’s in September. Since then, he’s made 11 starts, finishing inside the top-35 in eight of those. His ball-striking has been superb in that stretch as well, as he ranks 13th off-the-tee and 37th on approach in this field.
McNealy has played Harbour Town twice, making the cut both times while posting a T4 last season. He’s got the best make-the-cut odds of anybody in the $7,000 range this week and should be a cash game staple.
Matt Kuchar ($7,800 DraftKings)
Much like Webb Simpson, Harbour Town has been very kind to Kuch in the past as well. Dating back to 2014, he has three top-five finishes, including a win. He’s also made the cut in all 10 of his starts here this decade. He’s another guy having a bit of a resurgent season after a subpar 2021.
Kuchar has made eight-of-11 cuts on the year and is coming off a runner-up finish at the Valero two weeks ago. He is a really safe bet to make the weekend in this spot, which is all we should really care about at his price.
Joel Dahmen ($6,800 DraftKings)
Dahmen has too much talent for someone priced at just $6,800. He was playing really well until a stomach bug forced him to withdraw from the Corales Puntacana Championship three weeks back. He’s played Harbour Town twice and made the weekend both times, including a T16 back in 2019. If you need the savings this week, Dahmen is by far the preferred option in this range.
