To begin the fall swing, we head to the North Course (par 72, 7,123 yards, Poa annua/bentgrass greens) of Silverado Country Club in Napa, California, for the Procore Championship. This event is formerly known as the Fortinet Championship, and Silverado CC has been the home of this fall stop since 2015. Tying a tournament record -21, Sahith Theegala is the defending champion of this event. This week’s field consists of 144 players, and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Sahith Theegala ($10,600) – Theegala should have been priced over $11,000, considering how weak this field is, and the defending champion is worth every cent this week. Including the two-shot win last season, the budding star has finished inside the top-15 in three of his four starts at Silverado CC, and Theegala returns to Napa this week, coming off an impressive showing at the TOUR Championship. Despite starting seven shots back of the lead due to the staggered stroke format, the 26-year-old finished third at the season finale. Theegala finished with the second-best overall score without starting strokes, and he gained strokes in every major category at East Lake. Theegala has finished inside the top six in three of his past six starts and is poised for a strong outing this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Corey Conners ($9,800) – As always, Conners is a very safe target this week. The Canadian has finished inside the top-30 in two of his four starts at Silverado CC, and he has yet to miss a cut in 22 starts this season, including 12 top-25 finishes. Conners is an incredible ball striker – he ranks third in SG: Approach and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green this season – and he has a knack for excelling during the fall. When we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds at fall swing tournaments via the Rabbit Hole, Conners ranks sixth in total strokes gained.
J.J. Spaun ($9,000) – Spaun checks all the boxes this week. The veteran has posted a top-12 finish in two of his last four visits to Silverado CC, and his form is phenomenal, making six straight cuts with three top-10 finishes during this streak. Spaun finished T3rd at the Wyndham Championship in his most recent start – which marked his highest finish of the season – while gaining strokes in every major category at Sedgefield CC. Spaun has impressively shot under par in 22 of his 24 rounds during this current cut streak, and his ball striking has been the main reason for his success, with him ranking first in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Spaun has gained strokes on approach at 11 consecutive events and has the potential to contend for a win this weekend.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Adam Svensson ($8,400) – Svensson is coming off a T7 at the Wyndham Championship, and he has been an awesome cutmaker, advancing to the weekend in 13 of his last 15 starts. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Svensson ranks 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and he ranks second in 400-450-yard par-4 efficiencies, which bodes well for Silverado CC, where six of the 10 par fours land in this range. Including a T12 last season, Svensson has never missed a cut at Silverado CC in three starts, and he is very underpriced for his safety this week.
Beau Hossler ($8,300) – Hossler has finished inside the top 30 at Silverado CC for four straight years, and he is poised to add another quality finish to his resume at the Napa track this week. Hossler is on the heels of an impressive T12 at the Wyndham Championship, in which he gained strokes in every major category at Sedgefield CC. During this finish, Hossler put on the show during the first round, carding a career-low 10-under par 60. Looking to build off this terrific showing, Hossler is too cheap for the upside he brings at this venue he knows very well in Silverado CC. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at fall swing events via the Rabbit Hole, Hossler ranks eighth in Total Strokes Gained.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Matt Kuchar ($7,900) – Coming off his third place finish at 3M Open, Kuchar’s strong form continued at the Wyndham Championship with a T12 finish. The veteran has now made seven of his last nine cuts and he has carded four top-25 finishes during this stretch. Ranking 17th in SG: Approach and 27th in SG: Putting when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Kuchar has the tools to flourish at this low-scoring event, and his success at Silverado CC should continue this week with another high finish at the par 72. In five starts at Silverado CC, Kuchar has generated three top-25 finishes, including a T7 last season.
Jhonathan Vegas ($7,800) – Vegas is another veteran who travels to Napa this week in undeniable form. The 40-year-old has only missed one cut in his last eight starts, with five of these finishes being top-30 results, including a victory at the 3M Open. Ranking top-15 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee, and SG: Approach this season, Vegas is having the best ball-striking campaign of his career, and he should have been priced over $8K in this weak field. Vegas has advanced through the cut in four of his last five starts at Silverado CC, most notably with a T10 in 2016.
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,400) – Bridgeman is an easy choice at this soft salary. The 24-year-old has finished T19th at the 3M Open and T12th at the Wyndham Championship in his last two starts while gaining strokes on approach and with his flat stick at both these tournaments. Bridgeman shot under par in all but one of his eight rounds during these past two starts – including a career-low 63 at the 3M Open – and if he can carry this momentum over to Silverado CC, Bridgeman should shine in his second attempt at the California track this week – he finished T55th in his debut at Silverado CC two years ago.
Zac Blair ($7,000) – Blair is an appealing and cheap combination of strong course history and current form. The 34-year-old has made 6-of-8 cuts at Silverado CC, including three top-12 finishes, two of which have come in the last four years. As for his form, Blair has made five of his past eight cuts, most notably with a runner-up finish at the ISCO Championship. Plus, the veteran ranks 13th in SG: Approach and fourth in par four efficiency when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds. Blair is a strong bet to make the cut this week and likely will come with little ownership, as he is not a well-known name on the PGA TOUR.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Trace Crowe ($6,900) – While this will be Crowe’s debut at Silverado CC, the Auburn product is a great bargain at this cheap price tag. After finishing T24th at the 3M Open while ranking 13th in SG: Approach for the event, Crowe kept his foot on the gas and finished T7th at the Wyndham Championship in his next start. During this season-best finish for the 27-year-old, he gained strokes in every major category and finished seventh in birdies recorded at Sedgefield CC. Crowe faces an easier course and field in Napa this week, and he brings tremendous upside relative to his low salary.
Kevin Streelman ($6,600) – Streelman must be on your radar at this low salary, which is a huge drop from his $8K salary for last year’s Fortinet Championship at Silverado CC. The veteran finished T56th at that event, which is the sixth time in nine tries that Streelman has advanced to the weekend at Silverado CC, with his best finish being a T3 in 2021. The 45-year-old has made six of his last eight cuts entering this week and is one of the best sub $7,000 options on the board.