The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Augusta, Georgia this week as iconic Augusta National Golf Club hosts the 2022 Masters Tournament. The course is a long par 72, measuring at 7,510 yards with bentgrass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Jordan Spieth ($9,800 DraftKings)
Do I really have to explain this one?
Dating back to 2014, here are Spieth’s results at Augusta National: T3, T46 (COVID Masters,) T21, 3rd, T11, T2, 1st, T2. Since 2015, per Justin Ray, Spieth’s ranks at Augusta read: first in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Ball-Striking, and sixth in SG: Putting. Not sure how else to put it. The man absolutely loves this tournament.
Last week at the Valero Texas Open, Spieth gained 10.83 strokes tee-to-green, including 6.91 on Sunday alone. He lost over six strokes putting over the weekend, which we know is extremely uncharacteristic of the three-time major champion. The fact that his ball-striking is this locked in as we head to his favorite course on earth is a scary thing for the rest of the field.
Fade at your own risk.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600 DraftKings)
I will be keeping it incredibly simple this week and playing guys who get up for majors and have plenty of experience at Augusta. Enter the X man, who over his past three years at the Masters has gone T3, T17, T2. Since his TOUR debut in 2016, Schauffele has finished inside the top 10 in exactly 50% of the Majors he’s appeared in.
Pretty Good.
He’s been quietly rolling along this season as well, having posted four top-13 finishes over his previous six starts. He was on his way to a fifth before the cyclone hit THE PLAYERS and torpedoed his chances in two holes. Even with his mishap at Sawgrass, Schauffele still ranks 14th in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained over his past 24 rounds.
We’re getting a pretty nice discount in this spot on one of the premier big game hunters in the sport.
Brooks Koepka ($9,400 DraftKings)
It’s officially Major SZN, which means it’s time to fire up some Brooks Koepka. Another one that really needs no further explanation, but one that I’ll be glad to give.
Koepka’s results in major championships dating back to 2016:
T6, T4, T2, MC (recovering from knee surgery,) T7, T4, 2nd, 1st, T2, 1st, T39, 1st, T13, T6, 1st, T11, T4, T13, T21.
What an absolutely ridiculous display of dominance. We can throw models and numbers out the window when it comes to Brooks at Majors. The man is an Alpha and simply finds a gear that no one else can get to when the lights get bright.
He’s entering play this week healthy and in good form, having posted a T5 at the Match Play, T12 at Valspar, T16 at Honda, and T3 at the WMPO.
He is absolutely ready to claim his fifth major title this week and is a borderline lock in cash games for me at just $9,400.
Value Plays
Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,700 DraftKings)
Fitz is coming into play white-hot after posting four top 10s in his previous five starts. Over that stretch, he ranks 17th in SG: Ball-Striking, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and seventh in Total Strokes Gained. He’ll be making his eighth career start at Augusta, having made the weekend in each of his past six, including a pair of top 20s.
The Englishman is undoubtedly playing the best golf of his career right now and is way too cheap at just $7,700 in this spot.
Fire him up in all formats.
Corey Conners ($7,600 DraftKings)
Conners has played the Masters three times in his career and already has two top 10s to his name. After a brief slump at the end of January, he’s picked up his game considerably, having finished 11th at the API, 26th at THE PLAYERS, and then disposing of Dustin Johnson to finish third in the Match Play.
Over his past 12 rounds in this field, the Canadian ranks seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, third off-the-tee, and 16th on approach. Conners was the first name I clicked on this week as his price stands out like a sore thumb.
He’s at least $500 too cheap based on his make-the-cut and top-20 odds.
He will be mega chalk, and for good reason.
Robert Macintyre ($7,000 DraftKings)
Most people are not aware of this, but Bobby Mac led the 2021 Masters field in total birdies and eagles with 21. This led him to a T12 in his debut, an extremely impressive feat considering what we know about rookies at Augusta. The Scotsman made the cut at all four majors last season and has two career top 10s at the Open Championship in his career.
He clearly has a knack for big boy events. Macintyre looked really good in three of four rounds at Valero last week and finished T15 at Riviera, his start before that.
He likely won’t be that chalky, but I love him in all formats and think he’s a borderline cash game lock at this price.
Stewart Cink ($6,400 DraftKings)
This one may not be for the faint of heart, but hear me out for a second.
Cink finished T12 at the Masters last year and went T14, T25, T50 in three starts from 2012-14. His only missed cut at Augusta this decade came in 2019, which also came directly on the number after he made a snowman on the par-5 15th hole during his opening round. We can chalk that up as an anomaly.
Cink has not been incredible by any means this year but is coming off a T7 at the Valspar three weeks ago. He also ranks 12th in SG: Approach, eighth in SG: Putting, and eighth in Total Strokes Gained over his past four rounds in this field.
That’s a small sample, I get it, but he costs just $6,400 in a tournament where the top 50 and ties make the weekend in a 90-man field. You can even break it down further and remove the amateurs and senior tour guys, which puts the field at about 78 players.
This means essentially 75% of the field will make the cut, so we should be trying to jam in as many high-priced guys as possible who can win. Cink allows you to do just that while even boasting a little bit of upside in the process.
