Following the Rocket Mortgage Classic, on tap is another birdie fest in the John Deere Classic. Ever since this event was added to the annual PGA TOUR schedule in 2000, every John Deere Classic has been played at TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois. Sepp Straka won this tournament last season, finishing at -21 and two shots clear of the field. The John Deere Classic’s field this week will consist of 156 golfers, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Sungjae Im ($10,300) – It’s a tough debate on who is a better building block between Im and Straka, but ultimately, Im is in stronger form and the better choice. The 26-year-old is coming a T3 at the Travelers Championship, in which he finished only two strokes back of winner Scottie Scheffler and finished fourth in SG: Approach. This marked Im’s fifth top-12 finish in his last seven starts, and he has moved himself up 17 spots in the world golf rankings over this stretch. Im is far and away the most talented player in this field and should have been priced over $11,000, considering the weak competition.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Davis Thompson ($9,600) – Thompson doesn’t have a blemish in his game right now, and he should contend in his second attempt at the John Deere Classic this week – he finished T31st last season in his debut. Thompson was outstanding at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, finishing runner-up and only one stroke back of the winner in Cameron Davis. This finish comes after Thompson impressed at the demanding Pinehurst No.2 for the U.S. Open, finishing T9th, which is his best major finish to date. Thompson notably gained strokes in every major category during both of these past two finishes and is a terrific spend this week.
Denny McCarthy ($9,500) – McCarthy has finished T6th at the last two John Deere Classics and is well worth this high salary. Behind an incredible putter – he ranks second in SG: Putting this season – McCarthy has generated seven top-30 finishes this season, most notably with a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open in March, which, like the John Deere Classic, is an event that yields very low scoring. McCarthy’s irons came alive in his last start, and if he carries that momentum as a ball striker over to TPC Deere Run, the veteran should tally another high finish at the par 71.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Mark Hubbard ($8,400) – Finishing T41st, T13th, and T6th, in that order, Hubbard has improved in each of his last starts at TPC Deere Run, and the veteran returns to Silvis this week with a spotless 18-for-18 record in terms of made cuts this season. Plain and simple, Hubbard is an extremely safe pick this week and should have been priced near $9,000. In our PGA Models, Hubbard carries the 13th-highest Perfect%, but he is only the 17th-most-expensive golfer on DraftKings this week.
Adam Svensson ($8,200) – Expect a strong bounce-back performance from Svensson after his rare missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. Before this, the 30-year-old had made 11 straight cuts, with three top-30 finishes during this run. Svensson ranks top-20 in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds using the Bet Sperts Rabbit Hole Tool, and he has never finished worse than T24th in three starts at TPC Deere Run.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Patrick Rodgers ($7,800) – Rodgers has posted a top-30 finish in four of his last six starts TPC Deere Run – including a solo runner-up in 2017 – and he has only missed two cuts in his last eight starts entering this week. Most recently, Rodgers has finished T16th at the Travelers Championship and T31st at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his last two starts, while ranking top-15 in SG: Putting at both events. The 32-year-old was priced up to $8,300 for this event last year and is an awesome bargain this week.
Neal Shipley ($7,500) – Shipley is just starting to find his groove on the PGA TOUR and is far too cheap for his talent. After walking away with low amateur honors at both the Masters and U.S. Open – making him just the 10th player ever to reach this feat in the same season – Shipley made his PGA TOUR debut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic this past week and didn’t disappoint, with a T20 finish. Shipley finished the event sixth and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach, respectively, and he finished second in eagles at Detroit Golf Club. Shipley will now look to carry this momentum over to another easy track in TPC Deere Run, where he should flourish and card another top-20 finish.
Zach Johnson ($7,000) – Johnson is a true course horse at TPC Deere Run and is a strong, cheap option at this price tag, which is the lowest he has ever been priced for a John Deere Classic. Johnson has competed in every edition of this tournament since 2004, and he has only failed to make the cut once in those 19 starts. The two-time major champion won this event in 2012, which is just one of his seven top-five finishes at TPC Deere Run. Unsurprisingly, Johnson ranks first in career Strokes Gained at the par 71 among this field – via the Rabbit Hole – and entering this week as the maker of three of his last four cuts, the veteran should, at the minimum, advance through the cut this week.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Patton Kizzire ($6,900) – Kizzire has quietly been playing excellent golf, with five top-30 finishes in his last six starts. Ranking eighth in SG: Approach this season, Kizzire is having a career-best season striking the ball and his brilliant work with his irons should result in another strong finish at TPC Deere Run for the two-time PGA TOUR winner. Three of the last five winners at the John Deere Classic have finished the event top-10 in SG: Approach, and in five appearances at the John Deere Classic, Kizzire has carded four top-30 finishes.
Troy Merritt ($6,800) – Merritt was a featured pick in this article last week and we need to be going back to the veteran again at the John Deere Classic. Merritt finished T17th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week while gaining strokes in every major category except with his driver. This marked the fifth straight event Merritt has gained strokes on approach, and also his fifth made cut in his last six solo starts. On top of the promising form, Merritt posted a career-best T17th finish at TPC Deere Run last year, and he has made 6-of-10 cuts at the parkland track. Furthermore, TPC Deere Run is without a doubt one of the most scoreable courses on the PGA TOUR, and when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds in “easy” scoring conditions using the Rabbit Hole, Merritt ranks seventh in Total Strokes Gained. The 38-year-old has a clear knack for birdie fests and is an elite punt at this sub-$7,000 salary.
Ryan Moore ($6,800) – Moore loves competing at TPC Deere Run, making 12-of-14 cuts at the venue. Notably, the veteran won the John Deere Classic in 2016 and he finished runner-up in 2021, which are two of his nine top-30 finishes at TPC Deere Run. Highlighted by a T5 at the Valspar Championship, Moore has made seven of his past 10 cuts and his irons have been stellar this season, with him ranking 20th in SG: Approach. The 41-year-old has never been priced lower on DraftKings for a John Deere Classic and is an inexpensive, safe bet to make the cut this week.
