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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for The Honda Classic

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Feb 22, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR begins its Florida swing this week with the Honda Class. PGA National will be the host course, and is a 7,125-yard par 70 with Bermuda grass greens. There are water hazards all over this Jack Nicklaus design and it presents one of the more difficult tests golfers will see all year.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Sungjae Im ($10,700 DraftKings)

No surprises here. Im stands out as the most talented player in this field by a decent margin. Outside of a random missed cut here last year, he won this event in 2020 and finished T8 in 2021. DraftKings did us a favor this week by only pricing him at $10,700, as he could easily be in the $11,000 range, which would present us with more of a decision on whether a fade is a viable option. There is simply no getting around running Im in cash games.

He ranks No. 1 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total while sitting second off-the-tee, fourth on approach, and 10th in putting over his past 48 rounds in this field. Just to show you the gap between Im and the field, Aaron Wise (who we will get to in a moment) ranks No. 2 in SG: Total over the same time frame but sits .58 strokes per round worse than Im. That’s the same gap between Wise and Mark Hubbard, who ranks 17th.

If you fade Im in cash, find a new hobby.

Using our PrizePicks promo code LABS ($100 sign-up bonus), you could bet Sungjae to finish under 69.5 strokes in Round 1 if you’re feeling bullish about him.

Aaron Wise ($9,200 DraftKings)

As mentioned above, Wise rates out really well long term, ranking second in the field in SG: Total, 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and third in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds. He did miss the cut in each of his past two starts at the Amex and Waste Management, but prior to that was on a really nice run. Wise posted four straight top-22 finishes during the Fall Swing, including a T6 at the CJ CUP.

He’s also played well historically at PGA National, making three of four cuts with two top 35s and a T13. Wise ranks ninth in SG: Total per round at this course among anyone with more than one start. He’s too talented a golfer to be $700 less than Chris Kirk or $100 less than Matt Kuchar. He should 100% snap out of his recent funk and contend this week at a very friendly price tag.

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,600 DraftKings)

Vegas loves the Honda Classic. He’s played here each of the past six years and eight of his past 10 appearances while missing just one cut in that time frame. He also has a pair of top-16 finishes in that stretch to go along with a T4. He’s been on a nice run since returning from injury, making three of four cuts with a pair of top-25s. Over this stretch, Vegas ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee, and SG: Ball-Striking.

Due to the nature of this event, with all the water hazards everywhere, most players in this field have not made 87% of their cuts like Vegas has. There is obviously no such thing as a safe play this week with trouble lurking everywhere, but when you factor in Vegas’ recent ball-striking numbers and course history, he makes for a great play at $8,600.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Stephan Jaeger ($7,800 DraftKings)

Very quietly, all Jaeger does is make cuts. Dating back to the fall, he’s made the weekend in nine of 11 starts while posting a T9 at the Houston Open and a pair of top 30s as well. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, he ranks 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in SG: Total. Now, a lot of this is due to his elite short game, where he ranks No. 1 in SG: ARG, but he also struck the ball pretty well during this stretch, sitting 35th on approach.

You’re never going to be blown away by Jaeger’s profile, but he’s really solid in a bunch of areas and does not hurt himself with stupid mistakes. He finished T48 here last year, and there is no reason he should not build on that this week in a pretty weak field.

Lee Hodges ($7,700 DraftKings)

After five straight missed cuts, Hodges finally turned it on last week at Genesis, finishing in a tie for 18th. Even taking all the recent MCs into account, the 27-year-old still ranks 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, seventh in SG: Ball-Striking, and 11th in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds in this field.

Hodges made his PGA National debut last year and lit it up, finishing T9. Even though it was just one start, he averaged 1.8 Total Strokes Gained per round, which would rank him fourth him in this field. He (clearly) misses his share of cuts but tends to play well in spurts, highlighted best by his success in the fall, where he finished T30, T23, and T7 in a four-event stretch. I do not think last week was a one-off, and with the success, he displayed last year at this event, I like him quite a bit at just $7,700 this week.

Byeong Hun An ($7,600 DraftKings)

Benny An is back in our lives after getting his TOUR card taken away last season. His story is one of triumph, as he posted a win and seven additional top-25 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour to earn back his PGA TOUR status. Never quit on your dreams, kids.

Since returning back at the Fortinet in September, An has been playing quite well, making the cut in seven of 10 starts, including four straight. He’s coming off a T37 at Pebble Beach in his last start, which was on the heels of a T12 a few weeks prior at the Sony Open. He looked quite strong at Pebble, gaining 3.86 strokes from tee-to-green in his two measured rounds. Prior to his relegation to the KFT, An had a great deal of success at PGA National in his career, finishing T5, T36, and T4 from 2018-2020.

With the way he’s been playing of late, combined with his history at The Honda, An feels like a pretty strong play this week in all formats.

Matthias Schwab ($7,000 DraftKings)

If you have a weak stomach, then I suggest you look away for this one because I am about to speak highly of our friend Matthias ‘Stump The’ Schwab. The thesis behind this play is based on what he did at this event last year. The Austrian finished in a tie for seventh but absolutely shredded PGA National.

It was only his first start, so it’s not a large track record, but Schwab gained 2.05 total strokes per round here in 2022, which would rank him No. 1 in this field by over .17 strokes. There are many who will not put a lot of stock into this, but keep in mind Schwab costs just $7,000 this week, and outside of the guys I wrote up above in the $7,000 range, it’s largely barren.

Thankfully for us, he played pretty well last week at Genesis, so there’s a more than decent chance he keeps that momentum going at a track that clearly caught his eye last season. Schwab has never won an event before but does have countless top-10 finishes all over the world throughout his career. There are exactly zero golfers I trust in the $6,000 range this week, and the options around Schwab consist of current social security recipients and Mark Hubbard, who’s made one cut in his past eight starts.

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