For the first of three events for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA TOUR is hosting the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week at TPC Southwind (par 70, 7,243 yards, Bermuda greens) in Memphis, Tennessee. This par 70 has hosted a PGA TOUR tournament every year since 1968 and this will be the third year in a row TPC Southwind has hosted a playoff event. There will be no cut this week, and only the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be competing. After the FedEx St. Jude Championship, only the top 50 golfers in the standings will be advancing to the BMW Championship next week.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – With McIlroy owning a much better resume at TPC Southwind than either Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele, taking the savings and attacking McIlroy is the best move in this top tier. The Irishman finished T3rd at TPC Southwind last season and he has carded a top-seven finish in three of his last six visits to the track. McIlroy is also coming off a T5 at the Olympics, which is just one of his five top-five finishes in his last eight starts, most notably with a win at the Wells Fargo Championship in May. To put a cherry on top, McIlroy ranks first in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at no-cut events, via the Rabbit Hole.
Collin Morikawa ($10,000) – If fading the big three of Scheffler, Schauffele, and McIlroy and looking to build a more balanced lineup, Morikawa is a great starting piece. Including a T3 last year, the 27-year-old has produced two top-five finishes in four appearances at TPC Southwind. Morikawa has also carded four top-five finishes in his last eight starts, and he ranks fourth in driving accuracy this season, which sets him up perfectly for TPC Southwind. With this venue presenting narrow fairways and thick rough, being in the fairway is crucial at TPC Southwind and four of the last five winners at this par 70 have finished the event top-12 in driving accuracy.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) – Fleetwood took home the silver medal at the Olympics two weeks ago – including a second-round 6-under 64 – and the Englishman will now look to carry this momentum over to TPC Southwind, where he has tallied two top-five finishes in four appearances. Fleetwood has provided a top-25 finish in eight of his last 12 starts coming into this week and is a very safe target this week.
Russell Henley ($9,100) – Henley is in compelling form and is always a sharp target at courses with Bermuda greens. The veteran has posted a top-seven finish in two of his last four starts – both of which came at major championships – and Henley has finished inside the top seven in two of his past four appearances at TPC Southwind. The former Georgia Bulldog ranks ninth in driving accuracy this season, and he has top-five upside this weekend if his putter remains hot. Entering this week, Henley has gained strokes with his flat stick in five of his last six starts.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Sungjae Im ($8,700) – Im has finished inside the top 12 in eight of his past 11 starts, and he has finished T12th and T6th at TPC Southwind the last two seasons. Im ranks fourth in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at TPC courses – via the Rabbit Hole – and is a very appealing target at this sub $9K salary.
Billy Horschel ($8,500) – After finishing runner-up at the Open Championship – which is his best major finish to date – Horschel kept his foot on the gas at the Wyndham Championship last week, carding a T7 finish. The former Florida Gator gained strokes in every major category during this start at Sedgefield CC, and he posted an 8-under 62 in the first round, which tied his lowest score on the PGA TOUR since joining the circuit in 2011. Horschel’s form is undeniable right now, and the former FedEx Cup champion should thrive at TPC Southwind this week, which is a course he loves. In his last 10 starts at TPC Southwind, Horschel has finished inside the top 10 five times.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott has generated two top-10 finishes in four starts at TPC Southwind and he returns to Memphis this week playing his best golf of the season. In his last two starts, the Aussie has finished runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open and T10 at the Open Championship. Scott only shot over par once in his eight rounds during this two-event stretch – which is an impressive feat considering the volatile conditions in Scotland – and these two finishes alone have moved him up 30 spots in the OWGR. Scott is underpriced for upside and the best target under $8,000 this week.
Brian Harman ($7,600) – Harman has racked up 10 top-25 finishes in 20 starts this season, including a runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T7 at the Travelers Championship, both of which were played at TPC courses. Additionally, Harman has finished inside the top six in two of his last five appearances at TPC Southwind, and when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at all TPC venues, he ranks sixth in strokes gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole. Harman was priced up to $8,300 for last year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he is a steal at this $7,600 price tag. Despite being the No.15 ranked golfer in the world, Harman is only the 28th most expensive option on DraftKings this week.
Davis Thompson ($7,400) – Regardless that Thompson has never competed at TPC Southwind before, he is a terrific bargain at this low salary. The 25-year-old has finished inside the top 10 in five of his last 10 starts, including a four-shot victory at the John Deere Classic, which was played at another TPC venue in TPC Deere Run. Thompson ranks ninth in total strokes gained and second in SG: Around-the-Green this season, making him a strong match for TPC Southwind, where the greens are extremely small and being a strong short game player is a big advantage. Of the last four winners at TPC Southwind, three have finished the week top-six in SG: Around-the-Green.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Max Greyserman ($6,900) – Greyserman is playing brilliant golf right now and is tough to overlook at this cheap salary, regardless that this will be his debut at TPC Southwind. Greyserman hasn’t finished worse than T31st in seven straight starts, and the final two outings of this span have been runners-up finishes at both the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. The 3M Open was played at a TPC track in TPC Twin Cities, and at the Wyndham Championship, Greyserman turned heads with a 10-under 60 at Sedgefield CC during the second round, which was one stroke away from tying the lowest score on the PGA TOUR this season. Greyserman gained strokes in every major category during both these past two runner-up finishes, and he is criminally underpriced for his stellar form.
Denny McCarthy ($6,500) – McCarthy has supplied two top-20 finishes in three starts at TPC Southwind, and the veteran has been great at TPC courses in general. In five starts at TPC venues this season, McCarthy has carded a pair of top-seven finishes, and he hasn’t finished worse than T35th. Overall, when we compare this field’s results at TPC courses this season, McCarthy ranks fifth in Strokes Gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole. The short game specialist ranks top-12 in both SG: Putting and SG: Around-the Green this season, which has helped him record eight top-30 finishes in 21 starts. McCarthy is an elite punt play at this low price tag, which is a $1,000 decrease from his salary for last year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.
