GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Cognizant Classic on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Feb 28, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR starts its annual Florida swing this week with the Cognizant Classic. PGA National will host the event formerly known as the Honda Classic but will play as a par 71 this year rather than the usual par 70. The 10th hole has been converted from a par 4 to a par 5 and has been lengthened by 20 yards. Overall, the course measures 7,147 yards and features Bermuda grass greens.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Starting at the top, DraftKings really priced up Rory McIlroy this week, which was a nice surprise. I figured Rory would sit somewhere in the upper-$10,000/low $11,000 range, which would make him virtually an auto-play. At least at $12,200, you have to really think about whether he’s worth the pay-up or not.

With DK continuing the $5,000 range this week, there are plenty of ways to fit Rory and still field a strong team. He’s not been playing well whatsoever to begin 2024, but he did win at this course in 2012 and finished runner-up in 2014. He’s also the best player in this field by a wide margin.

I am not usually the biggest Cam Young guy, but he’s been playing much better to begin the new year, coming off a T16 at Genesis and a T8 in Phoenix. In his lone start at this event in 2022, he finished T16 and gained over 4.4 strokes from tee to green. We know Young has always been an elite long-iron player, and we should target him at tracks that require that skill set, such as PGA National.

Young is going to win on TOUR this season, and it would not be surprising if that were this week. He’s a great pivot from Rory at $10,700.

Player Pool: Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Russell Henley

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

DraftKings $9,000 Range

Eric Cole is priced up thanks to his T2 finish here last year, but he absolutely deserves to be after the way he’s played this year. Cole is coming off a T10 at Genesis in his last start and now sits fourth in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds, behind only Rory, J.T. Poston, and Lucas Glover. He’s definitely on the shortlist of guys who could win this week.

Chris Kirk has been trending in the wrong direction since his win at The Sentry to open the year, but I will never completely remove a defending champion from my player pool. Not only did Kirk win here last year, but he finished T7 in 2022 and T25 the year prior. Kirk’s putter has been ice cold on the West Coast, so a return to Florida and Bermuda greens will be a welcomed sight. He’s in play in all formats at $9,500.

Shane Lowry is by far my favorite play in the $9,000 range. He’s got elite course history at PGA National, having finished T2 in 2022 and then T5 last year. He’s also failed to miss a cut in six career starts. Lowry is a true grinder and is always in play at courses where par is a good score, hence his elite track record in majors. His form coming in is not great, but he did gain strokes ball-striking in his last start at Waste Management and has had three weeks off to get ready for one of his favorite events on TOUR.

Keith Mitchell is also in play this week at $9,000, which feels a bit weird to me. However, there is no denying the run he’s been on with his ball-striking, ranking No. 1 in the field in that department over the past 16 rounds. He also sits No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in Total Strokes Gained in the same time frame. Mitchell has three top-20 finishes over his past four starts, including a T9 at the American Express. His putter has been holding him back, but now we head to Florida and his preferred Bermuda greens. Killa Keith won his only PGA TOUR event at PGA National back in 2019 and is a serious threat to do so again this week.

Player Pool: Eric Cole, Benny An, Chris Kirk, Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell

Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

My boy Stephan Jaeger has really taken a step forward this season. He used to be an elite cutmaker with virtually zero ceiling, but now he is just a really, really good golfer. Jaeger is coming off his second T3 finish over his past three starts last week in Mexico, where he gained 5.37 strokes from tee to green and 4.23 more putting. His history at PGA National is nothing to write home about, but he’s improved his finishing position in each of his four starts, which culminated with a T14 last year. Jaeger is playing the best golf of his career right now and is probably underpriced at just $8,800 in this field.

Sepp Straka has dominated at PGA National throughout his career. After missing the cut in his first start back in 2019, he’s rattled off finishes of T27, T33, WIN, and T5 each of the past four years. Among players with more than one career start at this event, only Benny An and Sungjae Im have averaged more strokes per round from tee to green at PGA National than Straka, while no one in the field has averaged more total strokes per round. He’s been up and down to begin the year, but does have finishes of T12 at The Sentry and T26 at Pebble Beach, so his game is in fine shape overall. I have a hard time envisioning my single entry team not including Straka this week.

Beau Hossler has turned into a cut-making machine. The visor-wearing Texan is nine-for-nine in that department dating back to the Fall Swing while posting three top-seven finishes in that stretch. This is not really a course where you should target non-elite ball-strikers like Hossler, but he actually has a good history at PGA National. Hossler has never missed a cut at this event in three starts while posting a career-best T16 finish in 2022. There are more ways than one to get the ball in the hole, so who am I to argue with how Hossler gets that done? I will continue to keep playing him until he gives us a reason not to.

Player Pool: Stephan Jaeger, Sepp Straka, Beau Hossler, Alex Noren

DraftKings $7,000 Range

I really don’t like that Tom Hoge has missed the cut at this event in each of his past four starts, but he’s on quite the heater right now and has to be mentioned. Hoge has a pair of top-eight finishes sandwiched between a T17 over his past three starts and has gained a combined 14.3 strokes on approach during that time frame. That obviously ranks him No. 1 in the field over that stretch while also sitting fifth in Total Strokes Gained as well. Ride the heater if you like and simply hope Hoge can avoid the water on his tee shots.

It never feels exciting to roster Brendon Todd, but he’s been quite consistent to open the season, making all seven of his cuts dating back to September. In that time, Todd finished outside the top 33 just once while posting a pair of top 20s. This has not been an event he’s played very much throughout his career, but he did finish T48 in 2022, his only start at PGA National since 2016. One of the best Bermuda putters on the planet; Todd should hit enough greens in regulation to stick around for the weekend.

Adam Svensson is quietly one of the best long-iron players on the PGA TOUR, which will come in quite handy this week, as PGA National requires long approach shots despite it being a 7,100-yard course. His results here bear that out, as the Canadian has failed to miss a cut here in three trips while posting a T9 here in 2022. Svensson has looked good to start the season, ranking third in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds. He’s coming off a T10 at the Genesis his last time out and is a great play again this week at just $7,700.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is usually someone I look to target on easy courses, and PGA National is certainly not one of them. However, he’s two-for-two in making the cut here with finishes of T42 and T25. He’s also had a really nice start to 2024, finishing runner-up at the American Express and then rattling off three straight top-28 finishes at Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale, and Riviera. Only Tom Hoge ranks higher in SG: Approach than does Bezuidenhout over the past 16 rounds. He’s rock solid this week at $7,600.

I don’t love a ton below $7,500 this week, but Adam Schenk is always someone to consider when he’s in this range. He’s been pretty hit or miss this year, but he does have a pair of top-25 finishes at Torrey Pines and the WMPO over his past five starts. Schenk has made four of six cuts at PGA National with two top-30s since 2018.

Maverick McNealy will round out the $7,000 range for us this week, as he’s been playing way too well to be priced this low. McNealy is coming off a T13 in Mexico, where he shot 67/66 over the weekend. This was on the heels of his T8 at the WMPO as well, and he now ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the past eight rounds. He’s trending in the right direction after last year’s injury and is a great value this week.

Player Pool: Tom Hoge, Brendon Todd, Adam Svensson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adam Schenk, Matt Wallace, Maverick McNealy

DraftKings $6,000 Range

I hate recommending $6,000 players, as these guys are all usually hit or miss, but with DraftKings giving us another week of a $5,000 range, there are some decent golfers to choose from this week.

Carson Young has been heatering and is coming off a T8 last week in Mexico, where they closed with three straight rounds of 68 or better and gained 7.13 strokes on the field. He finished T29 here last year in his lone start and, at the very least, should come close to that this week at a fair $6,700 price.

I was big on Dylan Wu last week at $6,900, and he did not disappoint, posting a T24 finish in Mexico. Wu is quietly very talented, ranking 18th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds. In two career starts at PGA National, he’s finished T30 and T10, which only adds to the prestige.

Finally, we will close with Andrew Novak, who is $5,900 despite coming off back-to-back T8 finishes in Mexico and Phoenix. He gained 10.6 strokes on approach combined across those two starts and has made two of three cuts at PGA National in his career, including a career-best T29 last year. If going down this low, Novak makes quite a bit of sense this week.

Player Pool: Ben Griffin, Carson Young, Dylan Wu, Andrew Novak, Matt NeSmith