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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on DraftKings

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
May 1, 2024

After the Zurich Classic in New Orleans, the PGA TOUR returns to Texas for the fourth time this season for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Located in McKinney, TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,414 yards, bentgrass greens) will host this event for the fourth consecutive year. Jason Day (-23) won the Byron Nelson last season and KH Lee went back-to-back winning the first two Byron Nelsons at TPC Craig Ranch. This is a full field of 156 players and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Tool Highlights

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DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Jordan Spieth ($10,900) – While Spieth’s recent results haven’t been great, with a MC at the Masters and then a T39 at the RBC Heritage, TPC Craig Ranch is a perfect place for him to get back on track. In two appearances at the par 71, Spieth has finished T9th and runner-up. The 30-year-old was born and raised in Texas, and when we compare this field’s histories in the Lone Star state, Spieth ranks first in career strokes gained, via the Betsperts Rabbit Hole Tool.

The three-time major winner clearly loves competing in his home state and should contend for a win in this weak field.

DraftKings $9,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($9,800) – The most optimal route for roster construction this week is building around multiple $9,000 players, and Kim is the best choice in this price range. The 28-year-old is currently tied with Spieth on the DraftKings Sportsbook for the best odds to win the Bryon Nelson at +1600 and it is for very good reason. Ranking fourth on the PGA TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, Kim is having the best ball striking campaign of his career, and it has translated into him missing no cuts in 11 starts, including five top-20 finishes.

Kim finished runner-up to Day by one stroke at last year’s Byron Nelson and could win this weekend if he catches fire with his flat stick, which is absolutely possible given Kim’s putting is statistically at its best on bentgrass.

Alex Noren ($9,500) – Noren is an excellent target this week. The Swede has finished T21st and 12th in his two starts at TPC Craig Ranch and is in the midst of a terrific season, with a spotless 9-for-9 record in terms of made cuts and six top-25 finishes, five of which have come in his last five starts. For the season, Noren impressively has shot under par in 31 of his 35 rounds (88%) and he ranks sixth in total strokes gained.

Tom Kim ($9,000) – In this weak of a field, Kim is a steal at this price tag. The 21-year-old has only missed one cut in his last eight starts, and his last two solo finishes have been a T30 at the Masters and a T18 at the RBC Heritage. Kim gained strokes with his irons at both these events and is a strong bet for a top-10 finish if he can find some rhythm with his putter this week.

Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Thomas Detry ($8,700) – Detry should thrive in his TPC Craig Ranch debut this week. The professional out of Beligum has been awesome as of late, finishing T17th, 2nd, and T28th in his last three solo starts. Detry has produced five top-20 finishes in 11 starts this season, and he has moved himself up 29 spots to No.67 in the world golf rankings during this campaign. Detry absolutely should have been priced over $9,000 in this weak field and is a great high-end bargain at $8,700.

Mark Hubbard ($8,100) – Hubbard is one of the best values on the board at this affordable price. At last week’s team-based Zurich Classic, Hubbard finished in third place with Ryan Brehm as his partner. As an individual, Hubbard has yet to miss a cut this season in 11 starts and has carded five finishes of T31 or better. The 34-year-old golfer ranks 24th in SG: Approach this season, and he has finished inside the top 35 in both his starts at TPC Craig Ranch. Sitting 207 spots higher in the world golf rankings since his last visit to the par 71, Hubbard should produce a career best finish at TPC Craig Ranch.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Chan Kim ($7,600) – Kim finished T28th at the Zurich Classic playing alongside Doug Ghim last week, and more importantly, has made eight straight cuts on his own. Notably, Kim’s final two starts during this run have been a T14 at the Valero Texas Open and then a season-best T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Kim has gained strokes on approach in three consecutive starts and should excel in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch, which is a track that requires elite work with your irons. Ever since TPC Craig Ranch became of the home of the Byron Nelson in 2021, all three of the golfers to win this event have finished the week top 10 in SG: Approach.

Peter Keust ($7,500) – Kuest finished T14th in his first start at TPC Craig Ranch a year ago and has the potential to outdo this performance considering his form. Kuest has moved up 1,068 spots in the world golf rankings since his impressive Byron Nelson debut, and he has been outstanding in the new year. In his two starts in 2024, Kuest has finished T10th at the Valero Texas Open and T9th at the Corales Puntacana Championship while gaining strokes in every major category during both these starts. At this low salary, Kuest is one of the best values available for the Bryon Nelson.

C.T. Pan ($7,300) – Pan was stellar in his first attempt at TPC Craig Ranch last year, finishing T4th, including a closing round 9 under 62, which is his career low on the PGA TOUR. Sitting 167 spots higher in the world golf rankings this time around, Pan has top-10 upside and is a cash game staple at cheap salary. The 28-year-old Pan finished T28th at the Zurich Classic last week with Kevin Yu as his teammate and has made five cuts in a row as an individual, including two top-30 finishes.

DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range

Martin Laird ($6,800) – Laird has made 2-of-3 cuts at TPC Craig Ranch, and he has made five straight solo cuts entering this week, including a pair of top-10 finishes. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Laird ranks third in par four efficiency and sixth in 450-500-yard par four efficiency, which bodes well for TPC Craig Ranch, where six of the 11 par fours fall in this range. Laird never comes with much ownership and is a compelling combination of strong course history and current form at this low price point.

Brice Garnett ($6,800) – Highlighted by a T15 in 2022, Garnett has never missed a cut in three tries at TPC Craig Ranch. On top of the impressive course history, the veteran returns to McKinney in promising form. Garnett finished T11th at the Zurich Classic last week with Sepp Straka as his partner, and prior to this, Garnett had made four of his six previous solo cuts, with all these finishes being results of T35 or better. Most notably, Garnett finished T18th at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, which was a signature event that hosted all of the PGA TOUR’s best players, and he won the second PGA TOUR title of his career at the Puerto Rico Open in March. All things considered, Garnett is severely underpriced at this sub-$7,000 salary and is an elite value play.