For the fourth time this season, the PGA TOUR heads to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This event was added to the PGA TOUR schedule in 1946 and has only been played at Colonial Country Club (par 70, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens), which is located in Fort Worth. Emiliano Grillo (-8) is the defending champion of this event after defeating Adam Schenk in a playoff a year ago. This week’s field features 133 players, and there will be a normal top 65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Scottie Scheffler ($13,300) – As it has been the case all season, building around Scheffler in cash games is the best option this week. Despite the debacle of him getting arrested prior to his second-round tee time at the PGA Championship last week, the No.1 player in the world still finished T8th at the major, including a 6-under 65 on Sunday, which tied for the lowest score of the final round. Scheffler absolutely would have contended for another major title if he didn’t have to deal with the chaos of his unexpected arrest, and he has the potential to run away with his fifth win of the season at the Charles Schwab Challenge considering how weak this field is and how well he knows Colonial. At last two editions of Charles Schwab Challenge, Scheffler has finished runner-up and T3rd. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, the superstar is heavily favored to win this week at +275, which are the best odds a golfer has ever seen for a PGA TOUR event in the history of DFS golf according to FantasyLabs’ Trends Tool. Also via the Trends Tool, when a golfer has had at least a 20% chance of winning an event based on their Vegas odds, they have averaged a whopping 103.6 DraftKings points per start (32 players).
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Tony Finau ($9,900) – Including a runner-up finish in 2019, Finau has carded five top-25 finishes in eight starts at Colonial, and the veteran is coming off an impressive T18 at the PGA Championship. Finau led the major in SG: Approach, but ultimately, his putter held him back from contending. If Finau can find some luck with his flat stick this week, which is totally possible with Colonial presenting bentgrass greens, he could contend this weekend. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with this type of putting surface, Finau ranks seventh in total strokes gained, via the Betsperts Rabbit Hole Tool.
Tom Hoge ($9,300) – Hoge has made 4-of-7 cuts at Colonial, including a T17 in 2016. While this is a solid finish, the veteran should outdo himself and have a career performance at Colonial this week. This season, Hoge has become one of the best ball strikers in the world, ranking second in SG: Approach, only trailing Scheffler in the category. With the newfound dominance as a ball striker, Hoge has made 14-of-16 cuts this season and has recorded eight top-25 finishes, including a T23 at the PGA Championship last week. Elite work with your irons is a must at Colonial – four of the last five winners have finished the event top-five in SG: Approach – and Hoge brings top-five upside in this weak field.
Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Sepp Straka ($8,300) – Straka finished T29th at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and he should bounce back at Colonial after missing the cut at the PGA Championship last week. While he was sent home early from Valhalla, Straka still gained a very encouraging 4.2 strokes on approach, marking the fourth straight event he has been positive in the category. Straka had posted a top-16 finish in four of his previous five starts before last week, and he is vastly underpriced for his upside. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Straka presents +400 odds for a top-10 finish this weekend, which are the same odds as Min Woo Lee, who is much more expensive at $9,700.
Thomas Detry ($8,000) – Detry shined at the PGA Championship this past week, carding a T4 finish while gaining strokes in every major category at Valhalla. This marked the Belgian professional’s best major finish to date and his second top-five finish in his last four starts. Ranking 10th in SG: Putting this season, Detry has been incredible with his flat stick, and his expertise on the greens should translate into a high finish for him at Colonial, where he finished T21st in his Charles Schwab Challenge debut last season. For five straight years, the winner of this tournament has finished the week top seven in SG: Putting at Colonial.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Daniel Berger ($7,800) – Berger has a ton of merit at this price tag. The veteran is coming off his best finish of the season, with a T13 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, in which he gained strokes in every major category at another Texas venue in TPC Craig Ranch. Overall, Berger has been tremendous in the Lone Star state. The 31-year-old has recorded three straight top-25 finishes at Colonial – most notably with a win in 2020 – and he ranks fourth in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds in Texas, via the Rabbit Hole. Berger has made four of his last five cuts entering this week and brings top-10 upside at an affordable cost. The last time he teed it up at Colonial, Berger was priced up to $9,000 on DraftKings.
Maverick McNealy ($7,700) – McNealy has made 4-of-5 cuts at Colonial, and he has only missed one cut in his last 14 solo starts. During this span, McNealy has generated four top-25 finishes, including a T23 at last week’s PGA Championship. The 28-year-old’s game really doesn’t have a blemish right now, and getting him at less than $8,000 in this field feels like highway robbery.
Andrew Putnam ($7,400) – Putnam is arguably the best value on the board this week. Including four top-25 finishes, the veteran has made 11-of-14 cuts this season, and at Colonial, Putnam has produced four top-30 finishes in his six appearances at the Texas track. Most notably, he finished T3 at Colonial in 2019. Also, Putnam ranks sixth in 400-450 yard par four efficiency when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, which bodes extremely well for Colonial. Seven of the 12 par fours at this par 70 land in this range, and three of the past five winners at Colonial have finished the event in the top eight in efficiency on the 400-450 yard par fours of this venue.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Webb Simpson ($6,800) – Simpson isn’t the most exciting play, but he is one of the best bets to make the cut of all the players priced under $7,000 this week. After an ugly campaign last season, Simpson has only missed one cut in eight starts this season, and he has supplied two top-30 finishes. Plus, Simpson’s short game has been impeccable, with him ranking seventh in SG: Around-The-Green for the season, and he has thrived at Colonial in the past. The former major champion has advanced to the weekend in three of past five visits to the par 70, including a pair of top-five finishes.
Adam Svensson ($6,400) – Svensson posted a T40 finish in his debut at Colonial last season and is currently riding a six made cuts streak. During this run, the Canadian has gained stokes on approach in all but one start, and he ranks fourth in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Great work with your irons is a necessity at Colonial, and Svensson’s elite form as a ball striker should result in at least a made cut for the 30-year-old this week.
