For the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship will be played at Castle Pines Golf Club (par 72, 8,130 yards, bentgrass/POA greens) in Castle Pines, Colorado. While this will be the first time Castle Pines has hosted the BMW Championship, this Jack Nicklaus-designed course used to host the International, which was an annual PGA TOUR event from 1986-2006. Only the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings have qualified for this week’s BMW Championship, and there will be no cut. After this event, the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Scottie Scheffler ($12,300) – After his incredible gold medal win at the Paris Olympics, Scheffler finished T4th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. The world No. 1 has extraordinarily won seven of the last 13 times he has teed it up, including a victory at Muirfield Village for the Memorial, which, like Castle Pines, was designed by Nicklaus. Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at Nicklaus designs – via the Rabbit Hole – and he is worth paying up for at this salary, which is the cheapest Scheffler has been since his Masters win in April.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) – Cantlay is a sharp target this week with Castle Pines being a Nicklaus design. Cantlay has won the BMW Championship twice, and three of his eight PGA TOUR wins have come at a Nicklaus creation. Plus, Castle Pines presents bentgrass/POA mixed greens, and when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at tracks that are home to this type of putting surface, Cantlay ranks fourth in strokes gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole. Heading to Castle Pines with three top-12 finishes in his last four starts, Cantlay should contend for his third BMW Championship win this weekend.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Aaron Rai ($8,600) – Rai has been magnificent and must be considered at this salary. The English professional has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his past eight starts, including a runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and his breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship. Over the course of this eight-start stretch, Rai has moved himself up 54 spots in the world golf rankings to No.22, which is a career-best for the 29-year-old. Rai has gained at least 7.8 strokes on approach in back-to-back starts, and he shouldn’t disappoint in this incredible form.
Adam Scott ($8,300) – Scott has tallied five top-10 finishes in 10 starts at BMW Championships, and the Aussie heads to Colorado in awesome form. In his last three starts, Scott has finished runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open, T10 at the Open Championship, and T18 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scott has thrived at Nicklaus venues in the past – he won the 2016 Honda Classic at PGA National – and he needs to be backed at this reasonable salary.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Byeong Hun An ($7,700) – An has recorded 10 top-25 finishes in 20 starts on the PGA TOUR this season – including two in his last three starts – and he has flashed strong upside at Nicklaus courses in the past, with two top-five finishes at PGA National and a runner-up at Muirfield Village. An ranks top-25 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee this season and is a safe choice for cash games this week.
Robert MacIntyre ($7,600) – MacIntyre is an affordable target that always brings great upside. The 28-year-old has produced six top-10 finishes this season, including two wins and T7 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. During that finish, MacIntyre gained strokes in every major category at TPC Southwind and he closed the event out with a 5-under 65 during the final round. Looking to build off this terrific finish, MacIntyre has top-10 upside at Castle Pines, which a course that sets up for his game. Six of the 10 par 4s at Castle Pines range from 450-500 yards, and MacIntyre ranks fourth in efficiency on this length of par 4 when we analyze this field’s past 24 rounds.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Will Zalatoris ($6,800) – Zalatoris’ game is trending upwards right now, and he needs to be attacked at this low price tag, which is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings since he came on the scene at the 2020 U.S. Open with an impressive T6 finish. Zalatoris is on the heels of a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, in which he was one of only seven golfers to gain strokes in every major category at TPC Southwind. Zalatoris ranks sixth in Strokes Gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at no-cut events – via the Rabbit Hole – and he is criminally underpriced for his potential at this playoff stop.
Max Greyserman ($6,300) – Greyserman is far too cheap for his form and is a valuable punt play this week, that helps you fit Scheffler into your lineups with ease. In his last eight starts, Greyserman has finished inside the top-25 five times, including back-to-back runner-up finishes at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. Remarkably, Greyserman has only shot over par twice in his last 28 rounds, including an eye-popping 60 and a pair of 63s, one of which came last Sunday during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Greyserman notably ranks sixth in Total Strokes Gained when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds, but he is only the 45th most-expensive-golfer on DraftKings this week. Additionally, Greyserman carries the fifth highest Perfect% in our PGA models despite his near minimum salary.
