GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational on DraftKings

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 6, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR continues its Florida swing this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club and Lodge will host, and measures as a 7,466-yard par 72, while of course featuring Bermuda grass greens. This week is another Signature Event, so there will only be 69 golfers in the field, while the top-50 and ties, along with anyone within 10 strokes of the leader will make the cut.

Disclaimer: Some players will find their way into my player pool who have not been written up, as you will see in the player pool section for each price range. I have less conviction in the names I did not write up, but they still remain in play for me on tight builds.

PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Scottie Scheffler is of course in play any time he tees it up, but Rory McIlroy is my preferred pay-up option this week. Rory has the best course history at Bay Hill of anyone in the field, having won this event back in 2018 and posting five additional top-10 finishes since 2017. He’s coming off a strong week at the Cognizant where he gained over eight strokes ball striking, but simply couldn’t putt. I firmly expect a top-five finish this week from the World No. 2.

Patrick Cantlay faded over the weekend at Genesis but still finished T4. Last year at this time, people were afraid to roster Cantlay at this event because of his “poor track record in Florida,” and then he went out and finished T4. Cantlay clearly took a liking to Bay Hill, as he averaged 2.49 SG: Tee-to-Green per round last year, which ranks second in the field to only Scottie Scheffler.

Player Pool: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay

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DraftKings $9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele has been playing too well to ignore at $9,800. Despite him not having the best history at this event (T39, T24), things are a bit different now that it’s a limited-field event with a massive purse. Over the past 24 rounds in this field, which dates back to last year’s BMW Championship, Schauffele ranks No. 1 in the field in Total Strokes Gained. He’s come out on a mission so far in 2024, posting four top-10 finishes in five starts. He’s lacked a signature win these past couple of years, and it would not be surprising if that was rectified this week.

Another week, another chance to play Ludvig Aberg. He actually made his debut PGA TOUR debut at this course last year and finished T24. Aberg is obviously light years better now than he was this time last year, which is quite scary because he was still a phenom. He started the season kind of slow, but then posted two top 10s at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, before posting a T19 at Riviera in his last start. There’s no course on the planet that Aberg cannot conquer, but in weeks like these, where you need your full tee to green bag, I love to target the Swede. Only Scottie, JT, Xander and have gained more total strokes over the past 24 rounds.

Sam Burns has to be mentioned based on how he’s playing right now. Burnsy is coming off his fourth straight top-10 finish at the Genesis in his last start and ranks fifth in the field in Total Strokes Gained in that stretch. His moniker has always been “Bermuda Burns” due to his positive putting splits on Bermuda greens, and that’s translated to this event as well, where he ranks fifth in the field in SG: Putting per round at Bay Hill over his six career starts. Overall, Burns’ history here is kind of meh, but he did post a T9 back in 2022, so the upside is clear.

I am probably on an island here, but I would like to go back to Max Homa. I will blindly play him on tough courses that aren’t majors anywhere in the world. His history at Bay Hill is also quite strong, having finished T24 or better in all four of his starts, including a T10 in 2021. He had been struggling but bounced back at Genesis with a T16. It should surprise no one if he plays well again this week at Arnie’s Place. I like it quite a bit at just $9,200.

Player Pool: Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Max Homa

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

It looks as if Will Zalatoris is fully recovered from his back surgery. He lit it up at Riviera in his last start, finishing runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama and gaining 6.7 strokes ball striking. His history at Bay Hill is more than okay, making all three of his cuts with a T10 in 2020. Zalatoris is very much in the Homa/Aberg mold, where the tougher the course, the more you should want to play him, and that’s no different this week. He’s even more enticing when you see his $8,900 price tag.

Tommy Fleetwood might go overlooked this week, but he should not. He’s always played Bay Hill great, finishing T10 or better in three of seven starts, with two additional T26 finishes in that stretch as well. He’s been hit or miss this season so far, but he looked strong at Genesis in his last start with a T10. Long term, Fleetwood ranks seventh in this field in Total Strokes gained (48 rounds), and is a threat to top-10 at any course on earth. Sign me up at low ownership at just $8,800.

Jason Day has won at Bay Hill before but also withdrawn multiple times due to injury, or as some will say, to “go to Disney World.” If you take out the WDs, though, the Aussie has failed to miss a cut here in eight starts dating back to 2015 while finishing no worse than T31 in any of those. He’s been playing well so far in 2024 with three top 10s in five starts, including his last time out at Genesis. Day looks healthy right now, and that’s all that matters to me at this $8,200 price tag.

Player Pool: Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Chris Kirk played well again last week in his title defense at PGA National, finishing in a tie for 28th. He now comes back to Bay Hill, a course he’s also had quite a bit of success at, with three top-15s and two top-eight finishes over his past nine starts. Kirk gained 5.7 strokes ball striking last week, and is looking great to start 2024. He’s only $7,800 this week, making him quite a strong value.

Benny An continues to just play outstanding golf, as he’s now six-for-six in made cuts to start the season. He posted a T21 last week at the Cognizant, which could have been better if not for some inexplicably bad around-the-green. An gained 6.2 strokes ball striking at PGA National and has striking it very well to begin the year. He’s also played this event plenty in his career, making seven starts here since 2016 while failing to miss a cut and posting two top-14 finishes. I expect another steady finish this week for just $7,600.

Adam Scott is yet again back on our radar after a very solid T19 finish at Riviera his last time out. Scott has now finished T20 or better in each of his past four starts, with a pair of top-eights in that stretch. He ranks fifth in SG: Ball-Striking and sixth in Total Strokes Gained over his past 16 rounds and has finished T35 or better in six of seven starts at Bay Hill since 2014. He might be popular at this $7,500 price tag, but he’s simply playing too well to ignore.

Keegan Bradley has not been playing that well, but he’s always played Bay Hill well in his career. Keegs has played this event each of the past 10 years and never missed a cut, while finishing T10, T11, T10 in each of his past three starts. At a ball-strikers course where par is a good score on most holes, Keegan will always be in play, especially at $7,400.

Kurt Kitayama is the defending champion here, and as expected, it is just $7,300 due to field strength. Overall, he’s been quite good in 2024, failing to miss a cut in four starts while posting a T8 at Pebble Beach. He ranks 10th in the field in SG: Ball Striking over that stretch, which bodes well for his chances of playing well again this week. I will never discount a defending champ at any course.

Harris English for whatever reason has very strong history at Bay Hill, having posted a T2 and T9 in two of his past three starts at Arnie’s Place. Overall, he’s made the cut here in seven of nine starts. English is coming off a solo seventh-place finish at Genesis in his last start, where he gained strokes in every department. Combine his course history with recent rolling numbers and you have yourself a strong play at just $7,300.

Tom Hoge kept it rolling last week with a T28 at PGA National, where he gained 4.62 strokes on approach. Hoge continues to operate as the best iron player on Earth right now, ranking No. 1 in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds in this field. His best finish at Bay Hill came in 2020, where he finished T15. He’s made three of five cuts here overall, and is simply hitting the ball too well right now to not go back to at just $7,100.

I will forgive Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who missed the cut by one last week at the Cognizant because he yet again gained strokes on approach and with his putter. That is a formula I continually want to bet on, and it also helps that Bez has two top 20s and a T7 at Bay Hill in four-career starts.

Player Pool: Chris Kirk, Benny An, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Kurt Kitayama, Harris English, Tom Hoge, Christiaan Bezuidenhout

DraftKings $6,000 Range

Being that this is an event where 50+ of 69 players will make the cut, it’s more than okay to drop to this range. It’s hard to pinpoint which one of these volatile golfers will show up this week, but a few I like are Emiliano Grillo, Adam Hadwin Austin Eckroat, Min Woo Lee, Adam Svensson and Adam Schenk.

Grillo gained over 10 strokes ball striking here last year and has four top-26 finishes here in six starts.

Hadwin has missed each of his past two cuts here, but had made three straight cuts prior to that, which include at T6 in 2017. Overall, he has gained strokes per round on average at Bay Hill from both tee-to-green and with the flat stick.

Eckroat has never played this course before but is coming off a win and looks to be ready to take off. I am willing to find out at just $6,800.

Min Woo Lee is probably the most egregiously-priced golfer of the week. His top-20 odds are those of guys in the mid-$8,000 range, while he sits at just $6,600.

Svensson let a lot of people down last week but is now $6,400 at a premier ball-striker’s course. He finished T24 here last year and has the upside to be an incredible value at this price.

Schenk has been pretty bad overall to begin 2024, but I will always give him consideration when he’s priced this low because of his upside. He’s never missed a cut at Bay Hill either while finishing T31 or better in two-of-three starts.

Player Pool: Emiliano Grillo, Adam Hadwin, Austin Eckroat, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Rodgers, Adam Svensson, Adam Schenk