GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for The American Express

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jan 18, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to La Quinta, California this week for The American Express. There will be a three course rotation in play this week, with a 54-hole cut. Each golfer will play PGA West’s Stadium Course, PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club over the first three days. The final round will be played back on the Stadium Course. All three courses are par 72s that measure less than 7,200 yards and feature Bermuda grass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Jon Rahm ($10,800 DraftKings)

This week is really tricky at the top of the salary range, as you really cannot go wrong with any of the names up here. However, I believe Rahm is the most talented golfer in the world, despite Scottie Scheffler holding the top spot in the world rankings, and I will side with him yet again this week.

Rahm is coming off a ridiculous comeback victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He was down a whopping nine strokes to Collin Morikawa after bogeying his first hole on Sunday. I think you know how the story ended, but Rahm went on to shoot a final round 63 and steal the title after Morikawa inexplicably imploded yet again.

Rahm made 28 birdies on the week despite losing 2.75 strokes on approach, proving just how dominant he is even when his game is not clicking on all cylinders. The win marked his third worldwide victory in his last five starts, and now he is coming back to the place where he won in 2018.

Rahm’s approach play has been a little worrisome for some time now, as he ranks just 68th in this field in SG: Approach over his past 48 rounds, but it’s yet to prevent him from contending anywhere. All of his other rolling numbers look incredible, ranking No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and third in SG: Total.

Any time Rahm is in the field, I usually look to him as the pay-up option, but even more so this week with a 54-hole cut, as you’re going to want to jam in as many high-priced options as you can since there’s little penalty for punting off a spot or two.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,100 DraftKings)

After a lackluster opening two rounds at the TOC, Cantlay played great over the weekend, firing off a 66 and 68 over his final two rounds to finish in a tie for 16th. He gained 3.5 combined strokes off-the-tee on Saturday and Sunday after losing 3.7 during his first two rounds. This is always something I look for heading into the next week, as momentum always seems to carry over.

I always like to play Cantlay on Cantlay courses, and he almost always crushes any event on the west coast, being that he’s from California. You won’t believe it, but his history at the AMEX is elite, having played here three times since 2014 and finishing T9, solo ninth, and solo second in those three trips.

When he’s on his game, Cantlay has virtually no weaknesses, and that bares itself out in the data. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, he ranks no worse than 29th in any Strokes Gained category while sitting seventh in Total Strokes Gained. It’s really splitting hairs with him and Tony Finau in this low $10,000 range, but Cantlay gets the nod for me due to his history here.

Obviously, you can and should pair him with Rahm in any format, or make him your highest-priced golfer and pair him with this next guy we are going to discuss right below this.

Will Zalatoris ($9,600 DraftKings)

Zalatoris certainly did not look like a guy who hadn’t played competitive golf for five months after suffering herniated discs in his back. Will Z finished T11 at the TOC, which was his first start since withdrawing from the BMW Championship in August. He shot an eight-under 65 in his final round and gained strokes across the board. He did look a bit rusty to open, but he was quick to find his game and should be ready to contend again beginning this week at the AMEX.

Zalatoris finished T6 at this event last year, which was his first career trip to La Quinta. He averaged 2.85 strokes gained from tee-to-green on the Stadium course as well last year, which ranks second in this field behind only Lee Hodges among guys who have played this event before.

Only Tony Finau has gained more total strokes than Zalatoris over the past 48 rounds, and no one has gained more strokes on approach than the Dallas native. Assuming his injury is fully behind him, $9,600 is an extremely fair price for arguably the best pure ball-striker on the planet, and he needs to be in consideration for your lineups this week.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Patrick Rodgers ($7,700 DraftKings)

Man, Rodgers had an amazing Fall Swing, making six of seven cuts (excluding the ZOZO) while finishing inside the top 16 in four of those starts (including two top 10s). We only have Strokes Gained data for five of those eight starts but during this elite stretch, P-Rod ranks sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 14th in SG: Ball-Striking, and eighth in Total Strokes Gained.

His history at this event is nothing special, but he has made the cut in three of his four trips to La Quinta, with his highest finish (T40) coming last season. He’s simply playing too well right now to be ignored, and when you see his ridiculously cheap $7,700 price tag on DraftKings, he looks like a lock-button candidate.

David Lipsky ($7,300 DraftKings)

Lipsky played incredibly last week at the Sony, finishing in a tie for fourth after shooting four consecutive rounds in the 60s. He gained 5.73 strokes on approach for the tournament, even after losing 1.77 during his final round. You’ll also be surprised to know that he somehow gained 2.47 strokes putting for the week. I bring this up because Lipsky is an egregious putter, ranking 118th in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds and 138th over his past 36 rounds.

His ball-striking, however, has remained really strong, as he ranks a very respectable 26th in SG: Approach and 35th in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds. Lipsky played this event for the first time in his career last season and finished T14. He also finished out his Fall season pretty strong, posting a T10 at Mayakoba and a T22 at the Houston Open.

Lipsky is checking a lot of boxes for someone who costs just $7,300.

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Stephan Jaeger ($7,300 DraftKings)

Jaeger played great yet again last week at the Sony, finishing T28. It marked his sixth made cut over his past seven starts and third top-30 finish over his that span as well. You obviously have to hamper your expectations when dealing with players in this price range, as finishing inside the top 30 isn’t all that impressive for most guys, but for a $7,300 golfer, it’s quite strong.

It’s Jaeger’s elite short game that’s propelled him in this recent stretch, as he ranks No. 4 in SG: Around-the-Green and fourth in SG: Putting over his past 24 rounds in this field. He’s yet to make a cut here in two trips, but he hasn’t played this event since 2019, and he’s clearly a much more refined player now.

Being that we have a 54-hole cut this week, it’s much more palatable taking a chance on a guy with subpar history, as the most he can miss is one round.

I will take my chances on Jaeger at this price with the way he’s been playing.

Luke List ($7,200 DraftKings)

We will wrap things up with our old friend Luke List. If you are new to DFS golf, or just golf in general, List is by far one of the most frustrating players on TOUR. The guy is one of the purest ball-strikers on the planet, but legit putts like your dad at a muni course.

Just to illustrate that point further, List ranks eighth in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee and 16th on approach over his past 48 rounds, while simultaneously ranking 155th in SG: Putting. Guess how many players are in the field this week. You guessed it, 155!

Even with his clear shortcomings on the green, he managed to finish T11 at the TOC two weeks back and has posted a pair of top-22 finishes at the AMEX over his last trips as well.

Among golfers with at least three starts at this event, List ranks 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at the Stadium Course.At $7,200, at an event with three guaranteed rounds for each golfer, we do not need him to do too much for us this week.