Following the fourth and final major of the season, the PGA TOUR travels to TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards, bentgrass greens) in Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open. Ever since this tournament’s inception in 2019, every 3M Open has been played at TPC Twin Cities. The defending champion of this event is Lee Hodges, who won at a tournament-record -24 and seven shots clear of the field a year ago. This week, the 3M Open features a field of 156 golfers, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
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- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Tony Finau ($10,300) – Finau is the heavy favorite to win this week and absolutely should have been priced over $11,000. Before missing the cut at the Open Championship last week, which was the product of one poor round, the 34-year-old had carded three straight top-eight finishes. Ranking third in SG: Approach this season, Finau has been masterful with his irons, and the veteran won the 3M Open two years ago by three strokes, which is just one of his three top-seven finishes at TPC Twin Cities. Finau ranks first in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with bentgrass greens – via the Rabbit Hole – and is a tremendous value this week despite being the most lucrative golfer on the board. By a huge gap, Finau carries the highest Perfect% on the slate in our PGA models.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Akshay Bhatia ($9,800) – Bhatia ranks second only to Finau in Perfect% in our PGA models and is a great high-end target for the 3M Open despite never competing at TPC Twin Cities before. Bhatia missed the cut in his debut at the Open Championship last week, but prior to this, the blossoming star had finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T5th at the Travelers Championship in his previous two starts. Bhatia has carded 11 top-25 finishes in 21 starts this season, and he ranks second in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, via the Rabbit Hole. Including a win at the Valero Texas Open in April, Bhatia has shown a prowess for birdie fests during the early stages of his career and he should thrive in his 3M Open debut this week.
Luke Clanton ($9,300) – Clanton is another 3M Open debutant who makes a ton of sense this week. After impressing as an amateur with a T41 at the U.S. Open, Clanton has finished T10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, runner-up at the John Deere Classic, and T37th at the ISCO Championship, in that order. Clanton has gained strokes in all three major ball striking categories during his first four starts at professional tournaments, and shining at two low-scoring events in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and John Deere Classic bodes well for his chances at the scoreable TPC Twin Cities. While a limited sample of 12 rounds, Clanton is gaining an impressive 2.18 strokes per round in easy scoring conditions, which ranks first among this entire field, via the Rabbit hole.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Cameron Davis ($8,900) – Following his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month, Davis posted a solid T26th finish at the Genesis Scottish Open in his next start while gaining strokes in every major category at the Renaissance Club, except with his putter. Davis has shot under par in nine of his past 12 rounds and has huge upside at TPC Twin Cities in this type of form. At this par 71, Davis has provided three top-16 finishes in the last four years.
Tom Hoge ($8,800) – Hoge has produced three top-25 finishes in five appearances at TPC Twin Cities – most notably with a T4 in 2022 – and should add another high finish to his 3M Open resume this week. Hoge ranks second only to Scottie Scheffler in SG: Approach this season, which is incredible news with TPC Twin Cities up next, where four of the five 3M Open winners have finished the tournament top-four in SG: Approach. Hoge has recorded 10 top-25 finishes in 22 starts this season, and he ranks fifth in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at TPC Courses, via the Rabbit Hole.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Ben Griffin ($7,900) – After missing the cut in his Open Championship debut last week, Griffin should get back on track at the 3M Open. The veteran finished T20th in his first attempt at this event a year ago, and he was playing excellent golf before the Open, making 10 of his previous 12 cuts, with five of these finishes coming inside the top 20, most notably with a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open last month. Griffin ranks sixth in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, and on top of promising form as a ball striker, the 28-year-old ranks seventh in par-4 efficiency during this time, making him an awesome fit for TPC Twin Cities. Of the five winners at this par 71, four have finished the event top-five in both SG: Approach and par-4 efficiency.
Chan Kim ($7,600) – Kim is in superb form, and he should shine in his first attempt at TPC Twin Cities. In his last three starts, Kim has finished T10th, T12th, and T29th while shooting under par in all 12 of these rounds, including a pair of 63s, which marks the 34-year-old’s lowest score on the PGA TOUR. Additionally, Kim has gained strokes in every major category in two of these three starts, and he has gained over 3.0 strokes on approach at all three of these tournaments. Kim’s form warranted a salary over $8K this week and he has top-20 upside in this weak field.
Jhonathan Vegas ($7,500) – Vegas finished runner-up when he last teed it up at TPC Twin Cities in 2021 and travels back to Blaine this week with three finishes of T27th or better in his last four solo starts. The Venezuelan has moved himself up a huge 123 spots in the world golf rankings since the beginning of this stretch, and Vegas ranks top 30 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, and SG: Off-the-Tee this season. The veteran’s game is ascending right now and this salary is too low for his potential this week.
Austin Eckroat ($7,200) – Eckroat is in the midst of a strong season, making 16-of-20 cuts with five top-25 finishes, including his breakthrough win at the Cognizant Classic in March. The Oklahoma State product ranks 18th in SG: Approach this season, and he finished T16th in his debut at TPC Twin Cities in 2021. Sitting 489 spots higher in the world golf rankings this time around at No.60, Eckroat has terrific upside this week and is an elite value at this cheap price tag. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Eckroat carries +5000 odds to win the 3M Open, which are the same odds as Maverick McNealy, who costs $8,300.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Seung-Yul Noh ($6,700) – Noh has only missed one cut in his last seven starts – when excluding his withdrawal at the RSM Classic – and his most recent two starts have been a T6 at the ISCO Championship and a T24 at the Barracuda Championship. During these two starts, Noh shot under par in all eight of his rounds, and he gained strokes on approach at both tournaments. Looking to carry this momentum over TPC Twin Cities, where Noh has advanced to the weekend the past two years, the 33-year-old is a strong bet to make the cut this week.
Austin Smotherman ($6,200) – Smotherman is way too cheap for his chances of making the cut. The veteran has only missed one cut in his last 12 starts and is fresh off a T21st at the ISCO Championship, in which he finished the tournament top-10 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach. Smotherman has made 1-of-2 cuts at TPC Twin Cities, with a T24th in 2022, and has similar upside this week.
