GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for Sanderson Farms Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Sep 27, 2022

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The TOUR heads to Jackson, Mississippi this week for the second event of the 2022-23 season, as the Country Club of Jackson hosts the Sanderson Farms Championship. The course is a par 72, measuring 7,460 yards with Bermuda grass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Sam Burns ($10,700 DraftKings)

Burns is just one of two golfers inside the top 50 in the world teeing it up this week, the other being Harris English. This field is dreadful, and DraftKings did not even price Burns up; he’s only $300 more expensive than zero-time PGA TOUR winner Sahith Theegala, I mean give me a break. He should about $1,000 more expensive than he is and absolutely must be rostered in any cash game format.

Burns is the defending champion at this event and has a mighty impressive three wins over the past calendar year. He’s become one of the best players in the world. His only ‘weakness’ — if you even want to call it a weakness, considering he ranks inside the top 25 in driving distance — is his off-the-tee game, as he sits 92nd in SG: OTT over his past 48 rounds.

Otherwise, he’s top three or four in every other department. He’s far too underpriced in this spot, and his top-10 equity is simply too high to fade in cash games.

Denny McCarthy ($9,900 DraftKings)

McCarthy loves the CC of Jackson, as he’ll be teeing it up for the sixth time here, with each of his past four starts resulting in two T10s and two T20s. He’s arguably the best putter in the world and is certainly the best putter in this field, ranking No. 1 in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds (Sam Burns is No. 2). Not only is he the best overall putter in the field, but he’s even better on Bermuda greens, which is what we have on tap this week.

He is not the best ball-striker, but with the wide fairways and huge greens at this course, it’s not overly important. What’s important here is rolling the rock, and McCarthy can do that like few others on the planet. He obviously feels quite comfortable on the greens in Jackson, and even though paying $9,900 for him feels gross, his floor is pretty high in this spot.

Run him out with confidence.

Emiliano Grillo ($9,200 DraftKings)

Hell must be freezing over because Grillo has now gained strokes putting in 16 of his past 24 rounds. I used to joke that my dog William could putt better than this joker, but it appears he’s worked on his game and turned a once considerable weakness into dare I say a strength? Maybe I shouldn’t go that far, but in all seriousness, if he’s going to putt at even close to TOUR average, he’s gotta be taken seriously, as we know his ball-striking has always been elite.

Dating back to the RBC Canadian Open, which is about 24 rounds worth of golf for most guys, Grillo ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained, 23rd in putting, and fourth in ball-striking. His finishes in that stretch include a pair of runners-up with two additional top 25s.

His game has really come together, and he’s yet to miss a cut at the CC of Jackson in three career starts while finishing inside the top 40 on each occasion.

Wyndham Clark ($8,000 DraftKings)

Clark has now made 10 of his past 11 cuts dating back to the Memorial. His profile is that of a bomber who can score on par 5s and putt well, but he’s been getting it done in a variety of ways lately. He’s been incredibly Jekyll and Hyde with almost every club in his bag of late, but especially the putter where he lost 2.1 strokes on Sunday at the Fortinet, one day after gaining 4.5 strokes on Saturday.

We are not going to argue with results, however, and the results have shown that Clark has been incredibly steady, and if you take a long-term view of his numbers, you’ll see he sits 27th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds.

Sharp DFS players know how good Clark is and I would expect him to be more popular in higher stakes stuff this week.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Dean Burmester ($7,600 DraftKings)

Burmester is an unknown to the average golf fan, but he’s an absolute bomber from the DP World Tour and is in the midst of quite a stretch of golf; posting four top-11 finishes over his past six worldwide starts, including a T11 at the Open Championship and a pair of top-five finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour. Before you laugh, the field this week feels like a Korn Ferry event, so do not take that lightly.

He played so well at the Korn Ferry Championship that he earned a Tour Card for the 2022-23 season, so you better start getting familiar with his name.

He is shorter than 50-1 at most respected sports books, which means he is way too cheap at just $7,600 on DraftKings.

Luke List ($7,300 DraftKings)

Ugh, I just cannot quit this guy. I’m sorry, but List is simply too talented to keep playing this poorly in these weak fields. Over his past 48, 36, 24, and 16 rounds in this field, he ranks No. 3 in SG: Ball-Striking, which is obviously not surprising. The problem is he ranks 129th or worse in SG: Putting over each of those time frames. Thankfully for us, List is not as egregious with his flat stick on Bermuda greens, averaging .083 strokes better per round compared to other surfaces.

His history at this event is also pretty good, making three of his five cuts, with a T17 and a T2. He’s now missed five of his past six cuts overall, but I can confirm this cannot keep happening with how good List is at striking the golf ball. I am going to wager real American dollars that he snaps out of this and plays well in this spot. He will most certainly be higher owned in higher stakes stuff.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,100 DraftKings)

Much like List, I am going right back to the P-Rod well after a pair of missed cuts. I am betting on long term form here, as he ranks 15th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds while sitting 34th in SG: Ball-Striking and 12th in SG: Putting. His history at CC of Jackson is a mixed bag, as he’s missed back-to-back cuts here, but before that posted two top 20s in his previous three starts.

He failed to make the weekend at the Fortinet, but played incredibly well on Friday, gaining over 2.96 strokes on approach and 3.98 strokes tee-to-green.

If that carries over to this week, he’s way too cheap at just $7,100.

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