GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for Fortinet Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Sep 14, 2022

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The TOUR heads to Napa Valley this week for the start of the 2022-23 season, as Silverado Resort & Spa hosts the Fortinet Championship. The course is a short par 72, measuring 7,150 yards with poa grass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Max Homa ($10,500 DraftKings)

We will start with the defending champ, who is also the best player in the field, with Hideki Matsuyama’s recent injury woes. Homa went bananas over the final three rounds at the TOUR Championship, shooting 62, 66, 66 after an opening round 70 en route to a T5 finish. We are back in his home state of California, where he usually thrives on the poa greens. He’s a former winner at Riviera, which is a comp course to Silverado.

His price is more than palatable in a field like this at just $10,500, and if you are paying up this week, let it be for a proven winner rather than a Corey Conners or Hideki, who have not been at their best of late. Homa has not been great on approach of late, but if we take a broader view of everything, he ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained while sitting eighth off-the-tee and seventh on approach.

The President’s Cup is next week, so there may be a slight chance he is looking ahead, but it’s extremely hard to ignore the best player in the field in this spot.

Maverick McNealy ($9,900 DraftKings)

Mav is another Cali native that plays this course every year, as he was born in Portola Valley and went to college at Stanford. He is also at his best on poa greens as well, ranking third in this field in SG: Putting per round on this particular surface. He finally put it all together last year at Silverado, finishing runner-up to Homa despite having the lead with a few holes left to play.

He came close to making the TOUR Championship after a pair of top-32 finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. I do believe McNealy will get a win one of these days and is probably on the short list of best PGA TOUR players who have yet to win.

We know he can score, ranking 12th on TOUR last season in birdie or better percentage.

He has sky-high upside in this spot and is a rock-solid play in all formats.

Taylor Pendrith ($9,800 DraftKings)

Pendrith is a rising star, and people are not quite keen to this yet. He finished T13 at THE PLAYERS and then missed three months due to a rib injury. After returning, his ensuing results read T13, T11, T2, T13, 68th, and T8. The guy is a monster. Over his past 24 rounds, which is basically the entirety of his post-rib injury portion of the season, he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, 14th in SG: Approach, and No. 2 in Total Strokes Gained.

He can bomb it, which we’ve seen has been a successful strategy at this course in the past, considering past winners here include Brendan Steele (twice), Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, and Kevin Tway. Pendrith is my favorite play on the board this week and also makes for a great outright bet at 30/1.

Brendan Steele ($8,900 DraftKings)

Steele, as previously mentioned, is a two-time winner at this event and has played Silverado each of the past eight years. He’s made the cut in every appearance as well, with three additional top-30s. He’s coming in with very good form as well, having made nine of his past 11 cuts with three top-13 finishes in that stretch. Over his past 24 rounds in this field, he’s second to only Corey Conners in total ball-striking while sitting No. 1 on approach.

I don’t love paying $8,900 for Steele anywhere; however, with the lackluster field we have this week and the influx of Korn Ferry Tour graduates, he provides a nice bit of safety.

He’s been playing too well to ignore of late, and it would surprise no one if he contends for his third career title at Silverado this week.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Chez Reavie ($7,600 DraftKings)

Chez is an incredibly boring play no matter the event, but you cannot deny the man was put on this planet to hit fairways. He ranks No. 2 in this field in driving accuracy over his past 48 rounds, trailing only Ryan Armour (?) in that stretch. If you aren’t going to bomb it off the tee, you better be accurate if you want to contend here, and Reavie fits that mold to a T. It’s then no surprise to learn he’s made eight straight cuts at Silverado with four top-28 finishes and a T3 as well.

I would say he’s not likely to win, but that would be a lie considering he won the Barracuda just two months ago. Much like Week 1 in the NFL, we have a lot of unknowns this week, so it’s nice to lock in some more safety with Chez. At $7,600, we don’t need a whole lot more than a made cut.

Kevin Streelman ($7,500 DraftKings)

Sticking with boring players who play well at Silverado, Streelman makes an appearance on that list. He’s made three of his past four cuts here with a T25, T13, and, most recently, a T3 in 2020. It’s not entirely surprising to see him have success here, as he’s also done extremely well at another shorter California course called Pebble Beach. His putting splits on poa greens are also working in our favor here, as he’s .32 strokes better per round compared to other surfaces.

Streelman has missed his last two cuts overall but still ranks seventh in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green in that time frame. It’s been a faulty putter that’s let him down of late, but that shouldn’t be a problem this week. Streelman is like a bevy of other PGA TOUR veterans that simply play well at courses that they’ve always played well at.

This week is no different, and the price is really strong at just $7,500.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,300 DraftKings)

Rodgers is one of the most mispriced players in the field. We can start with his course history, as he’s made six of his past seven cuts at Silverado with a pair of T6 finishes along with an additional T25. Over his past 24 rounds in this field, he ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in Total Strokes Gained as well. Not bad for 40th highest-priced golfer in the field. Rodgers is a good putter on all surfaces, but especially on poa, sitting .23 strokes per round better on the Cali grass.

I do not see a reason to get away from P-Rod in this spot, as all the contextual factors are working in his favor. He can be the last player on your roster, which sits pretty well with me.

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