The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate by using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Delaware this week for the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Wilmington Country Club hosts the BMW Championship. The course is a par 71, measuring 7,534 yards with bentgrass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings’ scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Core Picks
Jon Rahm ($10,300 DraftKings)
Rahm played great last week at the FedEx St. Jude, finishing in a tie for fifth after gaining over seven strokes ball-striking.
From all accounts, Wilmington is going to favor bombers who can play out of the fairway and that are good with long irons. Those are boxes that are certainly checked off by the Spaniard.
No one in this field has been better in SG: Off-the-Tee than Rahm over the past 48 rounds, and only Will Zalatoris has been better in total ball-striking in the same timeframe. Rahm receives a lot of strange criticisms from the golf betting/DFS community. However, the true sharps know that when he’s on, he’s the best player on the planet.
He’s also historically dominated this event, having posted a win, two top fives, and a top 10 in five starts.
Don’t overthink this one.
Tony Finau ($9,700 DraftKings)
Finau did not hit the ball well whatsoever last week and still finished T5, which is a testament to how dominant he’s become. Everything mentioned about Rahm above can apply to Finau as well, as he has the requisite distance and long iron game to dominate this course.
He’s also one of the best lag putters in the game and is atop the TOUR in bogey avoidance.
Finau has now finished inside the top-five in four of his past eight starts, a pretty remarkable feat. Over his past 48 rounds, he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and No. 3 on approach. The man is on some type of run right now and has an insanely high floor.
Just for good measure, Finau’s history the last five years at the BMW reads: T15, 5th, 4th, T8, T7.
Sungjae Im ($9,100 DraftKings)
Im’s last three starts have produced a pair of runner-up finishes, as well as a T12 last week. In this timeframe, he’s the No. 1 driver of the golf ball on TOUR, gaining .3 strokes more per round than the next closest guy (Matt Fitzpatrick).
In addition to the elite driving, Im has been putting the ball great as well, sitting 10th in that department in this three-tournament stretch.
Wilmington is incredibly long and possesses huge greens, so driving and putting are the two skills most conducive to winning this week.
With that in mind, Im joins Finau and Rahm as pretty close to a must-play at the moment. He’s priced more appropriately than he was last week, but he’s absolutely still a value.
Aaron Wise ($8,100 DraftKings)
Wise posted two great rounds and two not-so-great rounds last week. However, he led the field in SG: Approach on Sunday, which is something we love to see heading into the following week.
Wise has played the BMW twice in his career, posting finishes of T17 and T16.
He’s a monster off-the-tee and finished runner-up at the Memorial this year, which is another long course with bentgrass greens. Wise has been quite consistent this year, making 17-of-22 cuts. While that won’t matter this week due to everyone getting four rounds, I believe he’s taken that next step toward elite status.
He will likely be higher-owned the higher you go up in stakes this week.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Cam Davis ($7,600 DraftKings)
Davis has been on a tear of late, posting five consecutive top-16 finishes, with a pair of top-10s in that stretch. He ranks fifth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Total Strokes Gained in that time frame. We know he can bomb it off-the-tee, but he’s been incredibly accurate of late as well, sitting 22nd in this field in driving accuracy and 19th in greens-in-regulation.
Davis is also a scoring machine, ranking 26th on TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage. He’s checking a ton of boxes for me for someone that costs just $7,600 and is guaranteed four rounds.
While it’s not the end all — since each year this event is played on a different course — he did finish T29 at last year’s BMW. Davis is a rock solid cash-game option this week.
Mito Pereira ($7,100 DraftKings)
It felt there for a while that Pereira’s meltdown at the PGA Championship really took a toll on him. While he did play really well in the two tournaments directly after, he then missed four cuts in a row prior to last week’s T42 at the FedEx St. Jude.
Thankfully, he showed some signs of life last week, shooting three rounds in the 60s while gaining close to 3.5 strokes on approach for the week.
There’s no chance for him to miss the cut this week, and if he can simply find any bit of the form he had prior to the PGA Championship, he’s a mega value at just $7,100.
Sebastian Munoz ($6,500 DraftKings)
Munoz has been a lot more consistent this year. However, in his heyday, he was always the best no-cut type of player to target. He can go super low at any time and then shoot a 76 the following day.
With four full rounds, we don’t need to worry about him melting down on Friday and missing the weekend for us, so we can sit back and watch him rack up the birdies at an incredibly strong $6,500 price tag.
It also helps that he’s finished T8 and T29 in both his BMW starts.
During his final round last week, he gained 2.3 strokes tee-to-green and 2.7 on approach, signaling to me he’s ready to go low this week at Wilmington.
