GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Wells Fargo Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
May 3, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club will host this absolute bear of a par 71, measuring at 7,521 yards. We will be back on Bermuda greens as well.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Rory McIlroy ($11,100 DraftKings)

Rory stands out among the rest of the field this week for a myriad of reasons, but let’s first start with his price. He’s $11,100, or just $400 more than Xander Schauffele and $600 more than Patrick Cantlay. With no Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler in the field this week, McIlroy is the class of this field and in a tier of his own. If you’re going to get up to Cantlay or Schauffele, there’s legit no logical reason to find the extra money for McIlroy.

The reasoning for that is simple: McIlroy owns Quail Hollow. He’s the current defending champion (2022 WFC was played at a different course) from 2021 while winning here in 2015 and in 2010. In addition to the three wins, he’s got a pair of T8s, a T10, T4, and T2 all over the past 10 years. There’s really no one on TOUR who has better history at any course than McIlroy has at Quail Hollow.

The last time we saw the three-time major champion was at Augusta, where he missed the cut in an extremely ugly fashion. After four weeks of rest, he should absolutely be ready to rock at his favorite course on Earth. McIlroy leads the PGA TOUR in driving distance and is going to birdie plenty of holes where others make bogey on this week. You can count on that.

There’s always merit to fading the highest priced golfer in the field, especially when they come with ownership like McIlroy will. However, there are plenty of ways to build strong teams around the Northern Irishman, unlike last week, where all the golfers you have to play to fit Rahm made you want to vomit.

No one in this field has the floor/ceiling combination that McIlroy possesses, and he’s just so likely to finish in the top five.

A true fade at your own risk situation.

Cameron Young ($8,700 DraftKings)

Young makes for the easiest pairing with McIlroy with the way pricing is lined up. By the way, this is something that does not get talked about enough — especially when it comes to PGA DFS. It really doesn’t matter how good of a play somebody is. They have to fit within the context of your roster, otherwise, it’s meaningless.

Young is built in the same mold as McIlroy in that he’s a complete monster off the tee, ranking third on TOUR in driving distance this season. Quail Hollow is theoretically a perfect course fit for the 25-year-old, and he’s underpriced at just $8,700.

Sportsbooks have his odds to win in the 20-1 range, which simply does not line up with his salary. This is part of the reason why Rory is such an elite play is that you can still fit Young alongside him on your roster and build a quality team.

Young is seven for seven in made cuts this season and has a few high finishes at tough tracks, such as his T7 at Augusta and T10 at Riviera.

He makes too much sense at this price point, and 100% has win equity in this spot.

Keith Mitchell ($7,800 DraftKings)

Mitchell’s price was the first thing that stood out when I opened DraftKings this week, as his $7,800 tag was a bit low considering his course history at Quail Hollow. In three career starts at this course, Mitchell has finished T34, T8, and T3, respectively.

It should not be a surprise, as he’s one of the best in the world off-the-tee and sits 16th on TOUR in driving distance. Hitting the ball extremely far and in the fairway is a massive advantage at Quail Hollow, and that is where Mitchell excels.

Mitchell was awful at the RBC Heritage but looked great at the Zurich, where he was paired with Sungjae Im.

He should play well this week and is simply mispriced for his projected floor/ceiling combination at this course.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Viktor Hovland could have easily been a core play, but I went with Cam Young for pricing purposes. However, Hovland remains an elite option in all formats and can even be played with McIlroy if you really wanted to push the envelope. The last time this event was played at Quail Hollow was 2021, and Hovland finished T3 that year. He even gained almost four strokes putting that week, which has been his major bugaboo of late. The ball-striking has remained elite, as the Norwegian sits No. 2 in this field in that department over his past 24 rounds. He’s a great play at $9,200.

Justin Thomas should theoretically be a good play in this spot, being that he’s an eye-popping $8,900. However, if you’ve watched him play this season, you know why he’s priced down here. He simply cannot make a putt and has shown virtually zero upside. Having said that, he hasn’t been missing many cuts outside of that meltdown at Augusta, and he’s going to snap out of this funk eventually. If you play him, just know watching him on the greens will make you want to pull your hair out.

I will not end up on Tony Finau this week, but he’s an elite GPP option at $10,200. Everyone will either pay up for Rory/Xander/Cantlay or simply pay down for the Hovlands/Cam Youngs of the world, leaving the most recent PGA TOUR victor largely overlooked. We have seen Finau press his edge after a win, and it would be foolish to jump off now.

Tommy Fleetwood has been Mr. Reliable this season, missing just one cut all year. He’s also in the midst of his best stretch of golf on the year after his T15 at RBC and T3 at Valspar. He posted T14 back at this course in 2021 as well. Fleetwood probably cannot win, but he should absolutely make the weekend in this spot, which is pretty solid for just $8,000.

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The upper $7,000 range is where all the money will be made this week, as there’s a bevy of plays here. Corey Conners, Wyndham Clark, and, dare I say, Gary Woodland. Clark is a terrific course fit, as he’s long off the tee and makes very few bogeys. He’s also having an incredible season and is coming off another top-25 in Mexico, where he shot 12-under-par over his final three rounds. Conners has been a bit flat after his win at Valero. After the missed cut at Augusta, he finished T31 at the RBC. He’s a phenomenal ball-striker at a course that demands it and is another strong option at $7,900.

I have promised myself that I’d never play Woodland again, but he’s played well this season for the most part and has a really strong course history at Quail Hollow with a pair of top-fives over the course of his career. He also ranks sixth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds and costs just $7,600. Hold your nose and hope he makes the weekend because the data suggests that he should.

Taylor Moore is also in play at the same price as Woodland. He’s definitely on the come-up, especially after his win at the Valspar. He’s shown very few weaknesses lately, ranking 14th in this field in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds.

J.J. Spaun is also someone I almost made a conviction play. He finished T18 here in 2021, and despite missing the cut at the RBC Heritage, he shot a 69 during his second round. He then parlayed that into a T26 at the Zurich Classic with Hayden Buckley. We have seen him play well at tough tracks before, and I really like him here at $7,300 as a salary saver.

Stephan Jaeger has been dialed in with his irons of late but cannot make a putt. He is making cuts, though, and is only $7,300. He’ll likely be popular in higher stakes but remains a solid option in cash. His ceiling feels a bit capped right now, however, so just beware in large field tournaments.

At the bottom of the $7,000 range, there are a couple of cash viable options, but S.H. Kim at $7,000 stands out to me. He’s made 13-of-18 cuts so far this season and has played well at other tough courses on the year, such as Riviera and Torrey Pines.