GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Wyndham Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Aug 2, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. Sedgefield Country Club will be the host course and measures as a 7,131-yard par 70 with Bermuda greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Denny McCarthy ($8,700 DraftKings)

This feels like an incredible misprice by DraftKings. Just a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, McCarthy was the highest-priced golfer on the board, about $300 more than Russell Henley. This week, for some reason, McCarthy is all the way down to $8,700, while Henley sits at $10,200. Make it make sense. I understand Henley has elite history at Sedgefield, but McCarthy has three top-22 finishes himself at this event over the past five years.

If you roll this field back 48 rounds, which is about 12 tournaments worth, only Hideki Matsuyama has gained more total strokes than McCarthy has. In that stretch, McCarthy rates out as the best putter in this field, and likely in the world, as he’s gaining more than .1 strokes per round on the greens than Justin Suh, who ranks second in that time frame.

Sedgefield is pretty much tailor-made for McCarthy’s game, as you’ll need to be accurate but not long off the tee, hit a bunch of greens, and putt the lights out.

Based on where McCarthy is priced in the betting market, he should be about $1,000 more expensive, making him the best value on the board.

Alex Smalley ($8,100 DraftKings)

You might hear this a few times this week, but this is a home game for Smalley. If you are unfamiliar, the Rochester, New York native played his college golf at Duke, currently resides in Greensboro, North Carolina, and is a member at Sedgefield. Normally I try not to put too much stock into narratives like this, but it does feel like a lot of data to simply ignore. I would be more hesitant if Smalley wasn’t already having a strong season, but he has been so good that it simply adds to the allure.

Prior to his missed cut at the Scottish Open, Smalley had posted five top-25 finishes across his past eight starts, including two top 10s. He also ranks sixth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds.

In two career starts at this event, Smalley finished T13 and T29, which only further backs up the home game narrative. Just two starts ago at the John Deere, he was $8,900, meaning one missed cut overseas basically cut his price by $800.

That makes little to no sense to me, and I have a ton of conviction that Smalley gets back on track this week.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I have zero interest in Sungjae Im despite his history here. I played him last week and he prevented me from min-cashing even though I had Lee Hodges on my roster. There’s something seriously wrong with his game right now and I will gladly pass at this ridiculous $10,800 price tag.

I like Sam Burns the most in this range. He’s had a down season based on his standards, but he can still putt the lights out and make a ton of birdies when he’s on. He also finished T13 here in 2020 in his lone start at this event.

Russ Henley, on paper, is probably the best play on the board, but I play this guy all the time and reap exactly zero rewards from it. He leads the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy and has three top-nine finishes here in the past three years, but I just know this will be the year he implodes for no reason if I pay this $10,200 tag for him. I have not decided what I’m gonna do with him or Burns yet, but both are firmly in play.

Si Woo Kim has been bad lately but probably has the best course history in the field. Since 2016, he boasts a win, a solo fifth, a T3, and a T2. Kim is an elite fairway finder and can catch fire with his irons. This is a prime bounce-back spot for him.

Stephan Jaeger just keeps on rolling along, making another cut last week, which marked the 14th time he’s done so over his past 15 starts. He still can’t putt whatsoever, but is on fire with his ball-striking right now, ranking sixth in the field in that department over his past 16 rounds. Jaeger finished T13 here last year and continues to be the safest play on the board on a weekly basis.

As usual, I love the bottom of the $8K range this week. I already mentioned Smalley, but both Taylor Moore and Adam Hadwin are two of my favorite plays on the week as well. Moore has had a rough go of it since his first career win at the Valspar back in March, but he did finish T4 at Rocket Mortgage, which, just like Sedgefield CC, was designed by Donald Ross.

Also, if you go back and look at his results from last year, you’ll see he was not in great form leading into both the Rocket Mortgage and Wyndham but went on to finish T6 and T5, respectively, at both events. Maybe he has a knack for Ross designs. Either way, he’s an elite putter who can go extremely low at events like this and is a really strong play at $8,000.

Hadwin has played better than his recent results have suggested. Last week he missed the cut on the number after completely botching the par 5s. Another Donald Ross specialist, Hadwin, finished runner-up to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage while posting a T10 at this event the last time he teed it up in 2021. The Canadian is usually accurate off the tee and sits 20th in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds in this field. It feels like he’s on everyone’s betting card this week, but I think he’s underpriced for his upside in this spot.

The last guy I will mention in this range is Chris Kirk, who has never missed a cut at Sedgefield in five starts dating back to 2013. His history is nothing to write home about, but he’s a really accurate driver of the golf ball who can putt and hit short irons. He also finished T14 at Rocket Mortgage just a few weeks ago. He’s missed eight cuts in 23 starts, but the majority of those have come at the Open Championship, U.S. Open, Memorial, Charles Schwab, PLAYERS, and Waste Management. None of those tracks present easy tests. I think he gets to the weekend with ease in this spot and pays off this $8,200 salary.

Let’s speed through the $7K range here. The pool of players I will be fishing from this week includes Eric Cole, Harris English, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, and Ben Griffin.

Cole has been rolling along all season and makes the cut pretty much every week now. He’s not long or particularly accurate, but he boasts an elite short game and ranks fourth in this field on approach over his past 24 rounds.

English might be broken, but I’m willing to bet on a bounce back this week at a course he’s had some success at in the past. Setting aside last year’s missed cut when he was injured, English had made six straight cuts at this event from 2015-2020, including a T11 and T23. He should putt well enough here to stick around for the weekend at $7,600.

I absolutely cannot stand Brendon Todd. I just want that to be clear. It always feels like he’s a good play, but then you look at his game log and see T49, T56, MC, T34, MC, T57, and MC. To be fair, he does have a T2 and T8 sprinkled in there, but those finishes are very few and far between. Sedgefield theoretically would be the spot for Todd, who’s shorter than my sister off-the-tee, but is usually quite accurate and sound with the putter.

He finished T36 here last year and T10 in 2021 but missed three straight cuts before that. He’s going to be popular and **should** make the cut this week, but to be quite honest with you, I doubt you’ll regret fading him. What a ringing endorsement that was, I know.

Andrew Putnam is built in the same mold as Todd, incredibly short off the tee but an accurate driver who can putt. He posted a T27 here last year and has made nine of his past 11 cuts. Pretty good for $7,200.

Ben Griffin is my value play special of the week. He finished T4 here last year and gained over 10.4 strokes total on the field. That comes to an average of 2.59 per round, which — albeit in just one career start — leads this entire field. After having a really strong Fall Swing and a bit of a meh Winter/Spring, Griffin appears to be back on the right track again. He’s finished T33 or better in three of his past four starts while ranking 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 23rd in SG: Total in that stretch.

My guess is that he will not be popular, which makes it even nicer.

Best of luck this week!

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