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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the World Wide Technology Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Nov 1, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship. El Cardonal at Diamante will be the host and measures as a 7,452-yard par 72 with Paspalum greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

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PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Ludvig Aberg ($11,200 DraftKings)

If you’ve read any of my content this fall, you will not be surprised to see Aberg featured in this spot once again. It’s especially true this week, as this field does not leave much to be desired. Aberg, Cam Young, and Sahith Theegala are in a tier of their own (with Aberg the clear cream of this crop) before a pretty substantial tier break, which begins with Steph Jaeger at $10,200. You are likely going to want to start your teams with one of these top three, and it’s the Swedish prodigy that stands out to me.

Aberg has been lighting it up on both the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR since the end of the Summer. He finished T4 at the Czech Masters in late August before winning the Omega European Masters one week later. He added another top 10 in Europe before taking his talents back to the States, where he finished runner-up to Luke List at the Sanderson Farms and posting a T13 at the Shriners. Simply put, the man is dialed in, and the numbers bear that out as well.

Aberg only has 43 measured rounds in his brief PGA TOUR career but ranks No.1 in this field in SG: Total during that time frame. He’s a no-brainer spend-up option this week.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I do like some other $9k options this week, starting at the top of the range with Beau Hossler, who’s been on a tear of late. The former Texas Longhorn has posted back-to-back top-seven finishes, including a runner-up at the ZOZO in his last start. Hossler has an elite short game, which is what he usually leans on. However, he’s been hitting it really well over this recent stretch, ranking 23rd in SG: Ball-Striking over his past eight rounds. With another likely birdie fest on tap, Hossler remains an elite play, even at this elevated price tag.

Anytime we head to a course with Paspalum greens, Emiliano Grillo has to be in consideration. Prior to last season, when Grillo was one of the worst putters on TOUR, paspalum was the only surface where he wouldn’t lose 1,000 strokes with the flat stick. Now that Grillo has become (dare I say) a decent putter, this could be used as a big advantage, especially since we know how deadly he is as a ball-striker. Grillo has always dominated at events like Punta Cana, which is a resort-style course featuring paspalum, so I firmly expect him to play well this week. He’s also coming in with strong recent form, having finished T10 at the ZOZO.

We’ll round out the $9ks with J.J. Spaun and Chris Kirk. Spaun’s recent play has been hard to ignore, as he’s made all three of his cuts this fall, with a T11 finish at the Fortinet and T6 at the ZOZO in his last start. He’s still not a great putter, but ranks fourth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over this stretch and absolutely has to be in consideration at $9,400 in this field. The same goes for Chris Kirk, who feels a bit underpriced for his talent in this spot. However, this will be his season debut, so who really knows how rusty he might be.

The $8k range is not as appealing to me as it usually is, but there are still a few names that stand out.

We’ll start with Mark Hubbard at $8,500. I just can’t ever quit this guy. It’s hard to give up on someone who’s literally one of the best iron players on the planet. If you run this field back 48 rounds, Hubbard sits No. 1 in SG: Approach by a pretty substantial margin over Lucas Glover, who ranks second. He also ranks seventh from tee-to-green and third in SG: Total during the same time frame. You know the drill with Hubbard by now, target him when he’s in good form, which thankfully is right now.

Lucas Herbert is also finally priced at a palatable number this week at $8,400. He’s consistently in the $9k range, which of course, is due to his immense talent, but it just seems to never work out for him during PGA TOUR events. He’s still living off that 2021 Bermuda Championship paycheck. However, with his price finally dropping, we’re not asking for a top-10 finish here; just a made cut with potential for a top-25 should do the trick, and I firmly believe that’s in his range of potential outcomes this week. The Aussie missed the cut at the Shriners but finished in the top 30 at both the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms.

We’re going right back to the Davis Thompson well. So far, in three starts this fall, he’s yet to finish worse than T35 while ranking seventh in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 13th in SG: Total. This is only his second year on TOUR, and he could absolutely emerge as a real player this year. Regardless, at this $8,300 price tag, he should be rostered in any type of cash game format.

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Moving to the $7k range, Cameron Champ will start us off, although I know I’m fully asking for it here. I missed out on Champ’s two breakout performances at both the Sanderson Farms and Shriners and instead rostered him at the ZOZO, where he finished 59th in a field of about 70. Run worse.

Regardless, this course should theoretically set up well for him, as it’s on the longer side with wide fairways. If he doesn’t completely implode on the greens, he should continue his run of strong form this fall. At $7,800, he’s worth the risk, being that he could easily win an event like this.

K.H. Lee has had a strong Fall Swing thus far as well, making two of three cuts with a pair of top-14 finishes at the Fortinet and Shriners. He’s a two-time PGA TOUR winner for $7,800 in one of the weaker fields of the season. It’s not rocket science really.

This one pains me even more than the Champ recommendation, but Davis Riley is somehow in play again at $7,700. He’s coming off back-to-back top-31 finishes at the Shriners and ZOZO and has looked pretty good in the process. There is a cut this week, which is always scary when rostering Riley, but he’s shown enough lately to warrant consideration from us.

Callum Tarren should not be $7,600 in this field with the way he’s playing right now. The Englishman, who’s known to be erratic at times, has made three of three cuts this fall, with three top-31 finishes. During this stretch, he sits seventh in the field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total.

Nick Hardy is perennially in play at these types of events, even if he doesn’t possess the highest of ceilings. He’s usually good for a made cut, which is more than okay at $7,400. He’s one of the best putters in this field as well, ranking ninth in SGP over his past 48.

Chad Ramey always goes overlooked despite being a PGA TOUR winner, but he’s been quite strong to start the new campaign, making all three cuts this fall and ranking 23rd in the field in SG: Ball-Striking and 15th in SG: Total. Keep in mind his lone win on TOUR came in Punta Cana, which should resemble this week’s event. At $7,400, you can do worse.

My rule for Brandon Wu is simple, if we are at Pebble Beach OR outside of the continental United States, he’s 1000% in play. Luckily for us, Mexico is indeed not in the U.S., meaning Wu should be on our radar. You might laugh at this narrative or call me a fish, but I don’t care. I don’t make the rules, and this is a real data point. Go look at Wu’s best finishes on TOUR and see for yourself.

Greyson Sigg is also having himself a nice Fall Swing and is very Nick Hardy-esque in that he usually doesn’t boast the highest of ceilings, but we can expect a made cut out of him. So far, he’s finished T28 and T25 in two of his three Fall starts while ranking 34th from tee-to-green and 29th in Total Strokes gained. Sigg is not flashy, but he gets it done.

Best of luck this week!