GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Sony Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jan 11, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The TOUR finishes up its Hawaii swing with the Sony Open in Hawaii. Waialae Country Club Resort will host and measures as a 7,044-yard par 70, featuring Bermuda grass greens. After last week’s smaller field no-cut event, we are back to a standard full-field tournament with a 36-hole cut.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Taylor Montgomery ($7,100 DraftKings)

I am honestly not sure how contrarian this will be, but I absolutely love Montgomery this week. After having a horrid 2023 season, he really got his act together in the Fall, and in a big way. He missed the cut at the Fortinet but then went T35 at the Shriners, T16 at the ZOZO, T31 at the World Wide Technology Championship, and finally closed out the year with a T8 at the RSM. We only have strokes gained data for two of those four events (RSM/Shriners), but we can safely assume he struck the ball pretty well at both ZOZO and at the WWTC.

He gained 2.6 strokes on approach at the RSM, which I would have to assume was his best output of any tournament in 2023. This is the skeleton key for T-Mont because he is undoubtedly one of the five best putters on the planet right now, even with all of his other shortcomings. He ranks fifth in the field in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds, so even when he couldn’t make a cut to save his life, he was still putting the lights out.

The difference now is that he’s clearly fixed something with his swing, and the results bear that out. The other important nugget here is that he made his debut at Waialae last year and finished T12 while gaining over six strokes putting for the week.

At one point, Montgomery was considered one of the game’s next superstars, and while I’m not sure if that’s still on the table or not, I do know he’s one of my favorite plays on the board this week at $7,100.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

It’s really hard to parse through the top of the board this week, as you could really make a case for any of Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, or Matt Fitzpatrick. None of them have played this event before, and despite last week’s blip from Aberg, all three have been playing really solid golf of late. Obviously you know my stance on the Swede, he’s destined for superstardom and might already be there. After closing a really down week at the Sentry with a bogey-free 10-under-63 on Sunday, I’d say he’s very much in play this week.

The chalk will come right from this upper $9,000 range this week in the form of Corey Conners and Russell Henley, both of whom possess outstanding course history at Waialae. Conners has made all five of his cuts here, with three top 12s and a T3 in that stretch. Henley has been slightly more erratic, missing three cuts over his past 10 trips, but also posting a runner-up to Hideki in 2022, along with three other top-17 finishes.

I have a love/hate relationship with Conners. He helped me take down the beverage cart on DraftKings last April at the Valero, which kickstarted what turned out to be a $200,000 heater on my end. However, he’s burned me plenty in the past as well.

He’s one of the game’s premier ball-strikers but is truly one of the worst putters on TOUR. This was again on display just last week at Kapalua, where he gained 5.98 strokes ball-striking but lost 5.23 putting. Historically, he’s gained about half of a stroke putting per round at Waialae for whatever reason, so he definitely has to be in consideration this week when you factor in his course history and recent rolling stats.

Henley, on the other hand, is more of a blind bet on course history because he was brutal in all facets last week at Kapalua, losing 4.8 strokes on approach alone. Maybe you can chalk this up to a fluke and just shaking off some rust, but color me frightened. I am writing him up here because, of course, he’s in play at $9,600 in this field, both at a course he’s had success at and theoretically SHOULD have success at.

DraftKings $9,000 Range

Much like the $10,000 range, you could for sure make a case for anyone in the $9,000 range, basically outside Will Zalatoris. Brian Harman has been rolling and just finished T5 last week at Sentry, but there’s just something in me that won’t let me play him at $9,900. He hasn’t missed a cut here in 10 straight starts dating back to 2014, however, and is playing the best golf of his life. Harman is firmly in play in all formats.

Chris Kirk has very hit-or-miss course history here as well, having missed four cuts, but also boasts a top 10 and three top-three finishes since 2014. He’s coming off a win last week, which could be viewed as either a positive or negative. Everyone responds differently the week after a win, and just for some context, Kirk finished T35 and then missed a cut the two weeks after his Honda Classic victory last February. I likely won’t end up here myself, but I have nothing negative to say if you like him this week.

As you know, I love Eric Cole, but I am not sure I end up there this week at $9,700. It’s still early in the week, however, and we will see on that because he truly is such a monster and absolutely deserves to be priced here. It’s still some pricing psychology seeing his name near Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick. Cole did his thing again last week tho, gaining 1.6 strokes on approach and 4.1 putting. He finished T61 at Waialae last year in his lone start, and I have a hard time seeing him not building on that.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Moving to the $8,000 range, Si Woo Kim was solid but not spectacular last week at the Sentry. He did gain strokes both ball-striking and from tee-to-green, which certainly is a positive sign as he attempts to defend his title this week. In addition to last year’s win, Si-Woo has made four of five cuts with a T25 and solo fourth in his other starts. He’s one of the best middle-iron players in the world and absolutely is in play for me this week, especially at $8,600.

Cam Davis burned me hard last week, and although we need to have extremely short memories in this silly game we play, I cannot in good conscious go back there this week.

The rest of this low $8,000 range, however, has a litany of good options. All of Denny McCarthy, Harris English, Justin Rose, Stephan Jaeger, and my dear friend Keegan Bradley are in play this week.

McCarthy looked really good last week with his irons, especially over the weekend, where he gained 2.5 strokes alone. Unfortunately, he could not get a putt to drop, which we know is obviously not going to stick. He’s played this event twice and made the cut both times, finishing T48 and T32. I am expecting a big year from McCarthy this season, and Waialae sets up as an optimal course fit for him as a short par 70 with Bermuda greens. I really like him this week and as an outright as well.

English looks to be healthy, having closed out the fall with a T28 at the RSM and then opening the new year with a T14 last week at Kapalua. His approach play still needs some refinement, but he’s gained over eight strokes putting over these past two starts and has made eight of nine cuts at this event dating back to 2014.

Rose was quite active this fall, playing both on the PGA and DP World Tour while posting some decent results. He opened the offseason with a T4 at the Betfred British Masters before then closing the year with a T8 at the Hero, albeit which is a 20-man field. He did gain over 4.1 strokes on approach in the Bahamas, however.

Last week was quite strange for Rose, as he lost strokes with his irons each of the first three rounds, before closing with a ridiculous 12-under 61 on Sunday. He, of course, gained two strokes on approach in that final round, with an additional 2.43 on the greens. In his lone start at Waialae this decade, the Englishman has a runner-up finish in 2017.

Jaeger, as you may be well aware, is another favorite of mine. The only golfer in this field who ranks higher than him in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past 36 rounds is… Lucas Glover. Considering he’s just $8,100 and the 19th most-expensive golfer on the slate, I’d say there’s some pretty decent value here. Jaeger likely can’t putt well enough to win, but he’s a cut-making machine and has easy top-25 upside in this spot.

Keegan has pretty meh course history here, but I mean come on. He should not be this cheap in a field like this ever. I realize this event is not elevated, but you cannot tell me with a straight face that guys like Benny An, J.T. Poston, or even Will Zalatoris should be that much more expensive than him. Keegs gained 3.7 strokes on approach last week but lost 5.9 putting. If the latter flips, he’s got clear win equity.

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DraftKings $7,000 Range

This has gone on pretty long so I will speed through the $7,000 range the best I can. The pool I will be fishing from here includes Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Adam Svensson, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, and S.H. Kim, as well as Taylor Montgomery, of course.

Todd is literally always in play at short par 70s that have Bermuda greens, much like Waialae. He’s missed just one cut here in seven starts over the past decade and has four top-33 finishes already this Fall, including a sixth at the Fortinet.

Svensson has not missed a cut since last June and has a pretty solid history at Waialae, with a T7 sandwiched between a T43 and T41. He ranks 10th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds as well and is definitely a bit underpriced in this spot.

Glover continues to show he’s one of the world’s best ball-strikers, gaining another 4.5 strokes with his irons at the Sentry last week and now ranks No. 1 in the field in SG: Ball-Striking over the past 48 rounds. He also sits third from tee to green in that stretch and ranks ninth in Total Strokes Gained. The problem here is that his solid putting he displayed over the Summer has since disappeared, as he lost a whopping 6.2 strokes on the greens last week. Glover missed the cut here last year but finished T5 in 2022. He’s obviously got sky-high upside, as we’ve seen, but his putting remains an issue.

Matty Kuch is, of course, a staple at Sony, having posted a T13, four top-eight finishes, and a win back in 2019. He could roll out of bed and shoot 65 at Waialae, and only Hayden Buckley and Justin Rose average more Total Strokes Gained per round at this course. Kuchar will likely be chalky, but $7,800 is an egregious price for him here.

Aaron Rai may not make my main team, but he at least has to be brought up when he’s $7,500. Only five guys in this field have gained more strokes from tee to green than Rai has over the past 48 rounds, and only 10 have gained more total strokes. He has a T61 and a MC in two career starts at Waialae, but that does not mean he can’t crush this week. Rai is also coming off a massive Fall swing, where he posted three top-10s on the DP World Tour and a pair of top-30s at both the Shriners and ZOZO.

Andy Putnam is next and is another guy always in play at short par 70s. He’s coming off a T4 finish at this event last year and had an additional runner-up back in 2019. His skill set is strong short iron play and elite putting, which he obviously plays at Waialae.

Benny Griff should have picked up his first career PGA TOUR victory at the Sanderson Farms, but he blew a three-shot lead and then lost in a five-way playoff to Luke List, of all people. Either way, he’s been playing some great golf these past couple of months and did this exact thing last year at this time when he finished T12 at this event. Griffin ranks 20th on approach, No. 1 in putting, and ninth in Total Strokes Gained over his past 16 rounds in this field. Pretty, pretty good for $7,400.

Finally, S.H. Kim rounds out the range. You never know what you’re gonna get from this guy, but at his best, he can be a real threat to top 10, which was on display at the Fortinet this fall, where he finished runner-up to Sahith Theegala. Kim is not a particularly good iron player, but he can putt and drive the ball really well. He finished T12 here last year as well, and anything close to that again this year would smash at this $7,000 salary.

Best of luck this week!