GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for The Sentry

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jan 3, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

And just like that, we are back!

The 2024 PGA TOUR season tees off this week with its yearly two-week stint in Hawaii. Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) will host The Sentry (formerly known as the Sentry Tournament of Champions), which measures as a 7,596-yard par 73, featuring Bermuda grass greens. Kapalua is the only par 73 used on the PGA TOUR, and it boasts 11 par 4s, four par 5s, and three par 3s.

The reason this event is not called the Sentry TOC anymore is that they have changed the qualifications to play in this event. It used to be any golfer who had won a PGA TOUR event in the previous calendar year, but it has since been changed to any previous winner and any additional golfer who finished inside the FedEx Cup top 50.

This year, the field will consist of 59 golfers, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm (obviously) the only two notable names not in attendance who fit the criteria.

As is usually the case with The Sentry, we have a no-cut event in play this week, so all golfers get four full rounds.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Scottie Scheffler ($11,000 DraftKings)

New Year, but nothing has changed. Scheffler was featured in this article quite a bit last season, and you can fully expect that to remain the same in 2024. The world No.1 lapped the PGA TOUR, and more specifically, this field, in virtually every major category outside of putting last season.

Over his past 48 rounds (about 12 tournaments worth), Scheffler ranks No. 1 in the field in SG: Tee-to-green, SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green, and Total Strokes Gained. During that stretch, he sits 58th (out of 59) in SG: Putting, besting only Si Woo Kim.

Scheffler finished 2023 with three wins but finished inside the top five an additional 10 (!) times. It bears repeating that if he even had putted simply mediocre instead of astronomically bad, he could have won an additional seven or eight events. The scary part about all of this is that Scheffler just won the Hero World Challenge last month by three shots and gained strokes putting for the week. If this is a harbinger of things to come, it’s going to be a historic season for the 27-year-old.

I think most people understand that Scheffler is the best player in the world, but I don’t think many people understand just how much better he is from tee to green than literally anyone else on the planet. At one point last season, Rick Gehman of Golf Digest posted one of the most outrageous tweets I’ve ever seen, which explains how there were only 23 PGA TOUR golfers at the time who had gained over 50 strokes from tee to green for the season. Scheffler was the only one who had gained over 100 strokes, and he had gained 186.05. It’s almost not real.

That brings us to this week, where Scheffler will be teeing it up at Kapalua for the third time, having improved on his finishing position in each subsequent start. In 2021 he finished T13 before posting a T7 last year. He’s probably going to win this week, so you’re going to want to have him in your lineup.

He should be priced over $12,000 on DraftKings right now, and especially in a no-cut event, there’s zero penalty for punting with a low $6,000 player. It might be a different conversation if Rory or Rahm were in the field this week, but below Scheffler right now is Viktor Hovland — who’s great, but not someone I am willing to fade Scheffler for right now — and then an out-of-form Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.

Fade Scottie at your own risk.

Ludvig Aberg ($8,700 DraftKings)

I promise we are going to be able to tell our grandkids about the time we got to roster Aberg at just $8,700 in the first event of the 2024 season. This is arguably the most egregious misprice of the week and potentially the biggest we will see all season. At just 23 years old, Aberg is already a bonafide superstar and will be priced above $10,000 in fields like this by the time we get to Augusta, if not sooner.

It took a little bit for Aberg to get going in his rookie season, but after the John Deere Classic, he’s been one of the five best players in the world, and the numbers bear that out as well. He ranks No. 2 in this field in Total Strokes Gained behind only Viktor Hovland over his past 24 rounds and has already shown to be the best driver of the golf ball on earth, ranking No. 1 in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee in the same timeframe, besting Scottie Scheffler — who ranks second — by over .16 strokes per round.

Aberg caught fire at the tail end of the Summer and has remained on a heater since, finishing no worse than T13 in any worldwide start since late August. He won the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour before finishing runner-up at the Sanderson Farms and then capturing his first career PGA TOUR victory at the RSM Classic in mid-November. He didn’t just win the RSM, either. He fired back-to-back 61s over the weekend to clear Mackenzie Hughes by four strokes and Eric Cole by seven. Utter domination.

Aberg has never played Kapalua, but I would not rule out him winning here in his first career start, something that has never been done at this event. I don’t know how else to explain how talented this Swedish phenom is, but I can assure you you’re gonna want to roster him this week.

He’s on Scottie Scheffler-type trajectory, which is no hyperbole.

Eric Cole ($7,400 DraftKings)

Last year, I did not play Eric Cole enough, which is one of the few regrets I had in what was a massive 2023 season for me. We will be rectifying that this season, as I have zero doubt that Cole will win on TOUR in 2024. He was close to winning on multiple occasions this year, and then caught absolute fire in the fall, posting four top-four finishes in five starts.

Cole has shown he could compete at almost any course on TOUR, but his skill set is quite clear: he’s elite both with his irons and his putter. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, Cole ranks 10th in SG: Putting and second behind only Scottie Scheffler in SG: Approach.

He also ranks No.1 in the field in total birdies made in the same time frame. Simply put, Cole is a DFS darling and is farrrrr too cheap this week at just $7,400 based on how he’s been playing. Many people are going to put stock into the narrative that no one has ever won at Kapalua in their debut. However, that’s not something I’m weighing too heavily for guys in the $7,000 range. Cole is one of the game’s elite scorers and has just a good chance as anyone to top 10 this week.

He’s my favorite play below $8,000 this week, by far.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I mentioned above how Scheffler is the best play among any of the high-priced options, but I already know Patrick Cantlay is going to be chalky at $9,900, as he usually is. He’s absolutely fine to start rosters with, as is Viktor Hovland at $10,500, but I will 100% be playing Scottie, and it’s harder to jam either of them in once you start with an $11,000 golfer.

My favorite play in the $9,000 range is Collin Morikawa, who boasts a sterling record at Kapalua, having finished T7, T7, T5, and then runner-up to Jon Rahm last year. Morikawa should have won this event last year but egregiously choked away a seven-stroke lead on the back nine. After having somewhat of a down season, the two-time major champion found his game again this fall, winning the Zozo Championship and finishing T7 at the Hero. It’s hard to fade an in-form Morikawa at just $9,100 with his course history here.

Tom Kim is my favorite play in the $8,000 range, though I am not sure I can get to him because of Aberg. Kim had a really nice finish to the 2023 season, having finished runner-up at both the Scottish Open and Open Championship before repeating as champion at the Shriners back in October. His flat stick was a big reason for this heater, as he leads this field in SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds. Kim finished T5 at Kapalua in his debut last year, and I expect him to play well again this week.

I have a feeling the DFS pros will flock to $8,100 Sungjae Im this week, which on paper looks like a bit of a mis-price. Im has exceptional history at this event, having finished T5, T8, and T13 in three starts. My concern is that he’s coming off a really down year and currently ranks 50th in SG: Approach and 28th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds in this field. He did finish T12 at the Zozo, but until I see him start to play well consistently, I think I’ll be taking the wait-and-see approach. The fact remains, however, that he’s pretty cheap for his talent.

Moving to the $7,000 range, both Sepp Straka and Russ Henley are strong plays. Straka played very well at his most recent start at the Hero, where he finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler, and before that, he posted a T10 at the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour. The big Austrian had a really strong 2023 overall, winning the John Deere Classic back in July before finishing runner-up at the Open Championship and finishing T6 at the TOUR Championship. Straka has gotten himself up to No. 18 in the world and has a ton of upside at this $7,800 price tag.

Henley is the same old, reliable, boring play that he always is. There isn’t a ton to say about him at this point that you don’t already know. He’s an elite iron player and strong Bermuda putter, and when he’s priced below $8,000, he’s always in play. Only Eric Cole and Scottie Scheffler rank better in SG: Approach over the last 48 rounds than does Henley. His history at Kapalua is a mixed bag, but he does have a T3 back in 2015, which is his best finish in four starts.

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Denny McCarthy and Cam Davis are the next two plays who stand out to me in this range. McCarthy had his best season as a pro in 2023, where he posted seven top-10 finishes, including a runner-up to Viktor Hovland at the Memorial. He’s not the best ball striker, but he remains one of, if not the best putter in the world, which keeps him afloat from week to week. McCarthy has never played Kapalua before, but we know this event can turn into a putting contest, which obviously is up his alley. At $7,400, you can certainly do worse.

Cam Davis is next, and he might be my favorite play in the range outside of Eric Cole. The Aussie had a monster Fall Swing, finishing third at the Fortinet, T7 at the Shriners, and then T12 at Zozo. He also finished T7 at the Australian PGA Championship. Only Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg rank higher in SG: Total than Davis does over the past 24 rounds. He’s almost a plug-and-play at this price, especially when you factor in that he finished T10 in his lone start at Kapalua in 2021. For whatever reason, Australians have played well at this event over the years, and I firmly expect Davis to continue that trend this week.

Moving to the $6,000 range, my favorite play down here will likely be a bit contrarian, in the form of Tom ‘Hollywood’ Hoge. At his best, Hoge is an elite iron player and strong putter, and he always seems to play well at the beginning of the season. Last year, in his debut here, he finished T3 behind only Rahm and Morikawa. Hoge also holds the TPC Sawgrass single-round course record. He can nuke, and in a no-cut event, having guys on your team that can go super low is quite important.

The final two guys who are in play in this range for me are Vincent Norrman and Luke List. Norrman is another young Swede with tons of potential. He also picked up his first career PGA TOUR victory in 2023, taking home the Barbasol back in July. He hasn’t done a whole lot to speak of since, but he does rank 10th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over the past 24 rounds. In a no-cut event at $6,500, he’s more than okay to roster.

List is going to be mega chalk among sharp players at just $6,200. I still am not sure I’m ready to trust that he has turned a corner with his putter, but he did win the Sanderson Farms in October and ranks a very respectable 24th in SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds.

We already know about his ball-striking abilities, but it will always come down to the flat stick for List, who at times looks like a seven-year-old playing mini golf on the greens. All of that to say, he is still ridiculously underpriced in a no-cut event, sitting just $200 above the stone minimum.

Best of luck this week!