GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Sanderson Farms Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Oct 4, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Jackson, Mississippi, for the Sanderson Farms Championship. The Country Club of Jackson will be the host and measures as a 7,461-yard par 72 with Bermuda greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Ludvig Aberg ($10,900 DraftKings)

Despite this being just his 10th PGA TOUR start, Aberg is the odds-on-betting favorite to win this week. It’s pretty hard to argue what he’s done in his short career thus far, especially coming off his first professional win at the Omega European Masters a few weeks back.

Over his past 24 rounds, the Swede sits behind only Eric Cole and Stephan Jaeger in Total Strokes Gained but would easily rank ahead of them if you include his numbers on the DP World Tour. He does, however, rate out as the best driver of the golf ball in this field over that time frame, ranking No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee, while also sitting fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

With the way he can score in bunches, It’s hard to get away from Aberg in any format this week, and there’s a chance he could simply run away with this event.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

If you choose to fade the likely chalk in Aberg, both Stephan Jaeger and Eric Cole make fine pivots. Jaeger ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking, and SG: Total over his past 24 rounds, all while making a whopping 25 of his past 28 cuts.

Putting has been the bugaboo for the German, but he still posted nine top-25 finishes and two top-10s last season and has played this course well over his career, finishing inside the top 30 three times in six starts. He’s probably the least likely to win this event among him, Aberg, and Cole, but he’s almost a lock for another top 30.

Cole boasts a lethal combination of strong iron play and elite putting, making him a very strong play at a weaker field, birdie-fest type of event like this. He ranks fourth on approach and sixth with the flat stick over his past 24 rounds and is coming off a T5 his last time out a the Fortinet, where he gained 6.2 strokes with his irons.

Cole, despite playing his rookie campaign at age 34, feels very much like an up-and-coming talent, and I am confident he will find the winner’s circle this season. Also, if you take a longer-term view (48 rounds), you’ll see that Cole leads this field in birdies made. Getting the $600 savings from Aberg could be important this week, and we already know Cole has a sky-high ceiling. Run him out confidently.

I don’t mind Emiliano Grillo one bit as a bit of a “pay-up-slightly-less to be contrarian” play at $10,100. He won on TOUR earlier this year and is four-for-four in made cuts at this event, including a career-best T5 finish last year.

The $9k range feels like a bunch of dudes who are insanely overpriced, so I will be staying away.

The $8k range is one to attack, however, with Mark Hubbard, Ben Griffin, Lee Hodges, and Garrick Higgo all standing out to me.

Hubbard is an incredibly streaky player who we need to attack when he’s in form. Thankfully, he’s coming off a T17 his last time out at the Fortinet, where he gained 5.9 strokes ball-striking. Hubbard had five top-10 finishes last season, including a T5 at this very event. He also ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach over his past 48 rounds. I like him quite a bit this week.

Griffin is someone who struggles off the tee but is good both on approach and with his short game. This is a bit more than I would prefer to pay for him, but this field is so weak that it’s actually not that big of a deal. He finished T24 here last season and has three top-25 finishes over his past five starts.

Hodges has remained pretty consistent even after his first career victory at the 3M this past Summer, finishing T31 and T45 in his subsequent two starts. ironically enough, in two career starts at this event, he has finishes of T30 and T45 as well. That’s obviously nothing to write home about, but for just $8,200, we can roster someone with clear win equity who’s in form.

Higgo has had quite a rough go of it since winning on TOUR back in 2021. However, he might have found something this past season, especially toward the tail end. The South African closed his campaign by making four of his final five cuts with three top-21 finishes. His iron play has been a bit shaky, but he sits 12th in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in SG: Putting over that stretch. Higgo also finished solo third at this very event last season in his first career start at Jackson CC. I believe he will a resurgent season this year, and that starts this week at a course he’s already taken a liking to.

As usual, the $7k range is littered with solid options this week. Since we are already over 1,000 words in, I will try and condense this as best I can.

Don’t forget to check out the intriguing PGA pick’ems at Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks using our PrizePicks referral code and Underdog Fantasy referral code.

All of Nicholas Lindheim, Mac Hughes, Sam Stevens, Dylan Wu, Kevin Streelman, Callum Tarren, Nate Lashley, Hayden Buckley and Kevin Yu will be in play for me.

Starting at the top, Lindheim has been crushing on the Korn Ferry Tour, with a win and four top 10s over his past eight starts. He also finished T27 at the RBC Canadian Open in his last PGA TOUR start. Despite being 38 years old, Lindheim’s recent play cannot be ignored, and he’s def on the radar this week, even at $7,900.

Mac Hughes is the defending champion at this event while posting finishes of T35 and T26 in his other two starts here as well. He had a relatively poor 2023 season after this win but has made three of his past four cuts coming into play this week. He’s likely not going to make my main build, but I never discount a defending champion at any PGA event, especially when they cost just $7,700.

Sam Stevens never plays well when I roster him, but still boasts a ton of talent for just $7,600. He’s also under 50/1 on most sports books this week, which is in the same range as guys like Adam Svensson and Tom Hoge, who are $1k+ more expensive.

Dylan Wu is a birdie machine who is always too cheap in events like this. He ranks fourth in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds and fifth in total birdies. He misses his fair share of cuts, but in this field, at this price, he’s still a massive value. He’s also in that 50/1 range with Sam Stevens and company.

Kevin Streelman is a grizzled veteran who makes his money at events like this. Over his past seven starts at this course, he’s posted two top 10s and two top 25s.

Tarren and Yu are two insanely good ball-strikers who are awful in every other facet of the game but boast elite upside in this spot. Hayden Buckley also comes with plenty of risk, as he missed the majority of last season due to injury, so we really don’t know what version of him to expect this week. However, he’s finished T4 and T19 in his past two starts at this event, so it’s quite possible he plays well.

Finally, Nate Lashley has been playing really good golf of late, making nine of his past 11 cuts. He ranks fifth on approach and 16th in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds and has two top-20s at this event in five starts. He’ll be in consideration for sure.

Best of luck this week!