GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for The RSM Classic

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Nov 15, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to St. Simons Island, Georgia this week for the RSM Classic. Sea Island Resort will be the host and measures as a 7,005-yard par 70 with Bermuda greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

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PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Taylor Pendrith ($7,600 DraftKings)

This price makes absolutely no sense, as Pendrith has been crushing this fall. He’s coming off a T8 last week in Bermuda, a T15 at WWT Championship, and a T3 at Shriners. It’s not entirely surprising that the Canadian is playing this well because he’s always been a huge talent. The caveat is that he’s finally healthy for the first time in a while.

In two career starts at Sea Island, Pendrith has finished T26 and T15, which only adds to this hype train. He’s also made a whopping 69 birdies over his past 12 rounds. Pendrith about $1K too cheap at the minimum in this spot and should be on every cash game roster.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Russ Henley was extremely close to being a conviction play, but I also like Ludvig Aberg quite a bit as well this week. The point, however, is that Henley is far too cheap for both his floor and ceiling in this spot. He’s somehow $1,000 cheaper than Cam Young, which makes literally zero sense. You can’t even tell me with a straight face that Young is a better golfer than Henley because he’s not, so why is he $1K more expensive at a course Henley has played eight times over the past 10 years?

Among those eight starts, Henley has a T10, T6, and T4, along with a pair of top 30s as well. He’s a Georgia boy born and bred and played his college golf at UGA. This tournament obviously means a lot to him. Oh, by the way, he ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds. It’s not every week you can play the best golfer in the field for $9,700, but that’s what we have here.

As for Aberg, I don’t think you need me to explain anymore. This kid will be mentioned with the Schefflers and Hovlands of the world in pretty short order. He’s a true prodigy and has not finished worse than T13 in each of his past six worldwide starts. Aberg is the most expensive golfer in the field, and his best weapon — his driver — will be a bit muted this week due to how short Sea Island is. Even having mentioned all that, he has to be in the conversation, regardless.

We will round out the $9K range with another machine, Eric Cole. You simply cannot fight it anymore. Cole cannot hit the ball straight, ranking 131st in driving accuracy and 116th in SG: Off-the-Tee over his past 48 rounds in the field, but he’s elite at everything else. He ranks No. 2 in SG: Approach, No. 9 in SG: Putting, and 16th in SG: Around-the-Green. So far this fall he’s finished fourth, T3, and T2 in four starts. Cole is absolutely going to win this year, and it could very well come this week. Either way, he finished T39 at Sea Island last year and should easily build on that this week. Getting him at $9K right now feels like stealing.

Matt Kuchar currently lives on St. Simons Island, Georgia, and has played this event for nine of the past 10 years. His record here is actually not as good as you’d expect based on what we know about his skillset. However, he has made the cut six times in those nine starts while finishing no worse than T37 in those six starts, with two top 25s and a T7.

Kuch will be coming in with some strong form this year, having just finished T2 at the WWT Championship in Mexico in his last start. He would have won if not for some insanely bad luck, as he made a ridiculous quadruple bogey during his third round and ended up losing by two strokes because Erik Van Rooyen shot eight-under on the back 9. Regardless, Kuch is a rock-solid play this week at $8,900 and even has some win equity.

We have not seen Denny McCarthy since the summer, but let’s not forget what kind of season he had in 2023. The 30-year-old posted seven top-10 finishes, including almost winning the Memorial if not for the brilliance of Viktor Hovland. This feels like another misprice by DraftKings here at $8,700 based on what we know about McCarthy’s upside. He also has really strong course history at Sea Island, posting two top 10s and three made cuts over his past four starts.

I have a thing for defending champions, no matter which course we are at, but especially if that defending champ is coming in with good form like Adam Svensson is. The Canadian started off the fall hot by posting top-18 finishes at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms. He then finished a middling T41 and T44 at the ZOZO and WWTC but did close with a final-round 67 in Mexico. Only six players in this field rank higher in SG: Total than Svensson since the Fall Swing began, and at $8,600 coming off a win last year, I like him to play well again this week.

We have no data for the DP World Tour really, but Billy Horschel seems to have found his game overseas. He’s finished T20 or better in each of his past three DPWT starts, which have all come over the past eight weeks. In two starts at Sea Island this decade, Horschel has an MC and a T2. This course should absolutely fit his game, and $8,400 is rather cheap for his potential ceiling.

We’ll round out the $8k range with J.J. Spaun, who’s made all four cuts so far this Fall, with a T11 and T6 in that stretch. He ranks fifth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green during that time as well. Spaun also has a strong history at this coastal track, having made six of seven cuts with a T2 and two top 16s. The field being a bit better this week pushed his price down to $8,000 flat, which puts him firmly in play in all formats.

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Outside of Taylor Pendrith, who we already hit on, there’s not a ton to love in the $7k range this week. The few names that stood out, however.

Taylor Montgomery is still having trouble with his ball striking, but he can really score and is one of the best putters in the field when he’s on. He finished T15 here last year in his lone start at Sea Island and is having a pretty resurgent Fall Swing, having finished T35 or better in each of his past three starts. The price is pretty palatable here at $7,600.

I really thought Ben Griffin was going to pack it in for the fall after getting his heart broken by Luke List at the Sanderson. He has bounced back nicely, however, finishing T23 and T37 over his past two starts in Bermuda and Mexico. He now comes back to Sea Island, where he finished T29 last year in his first since 2018. Griffin is brutal off-the-tee, but the lack of distance at this course will mute most of that, and we know how lethal he can be on approach and with the putter. Sign me up at $7,500.

We have to keep riding Adam Long while he remains this hot. After hitting 100% of his fairways en route to T23 finish in Mexico two starts ago, Long followed that up with T13 in Bermuda and has now finished T35 or better in each of his past four starts. Overall, he’s been pretty good at Sea Island during his career, making three of five cuts with a T16 mixed in there. The wheels could come off any week now, but I am willing to give him another shot here in the final event of the year.

Finally, we will round things out with Matt NeSmith, who has finished T29, T15, and T14 in three of his four starts at Sea Island. He’s also been playing pretty well this Fall, finishing T25 at the Sanderson Farms and 15th at the ZOZO in his most recent start. NeSmith sits 25th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in the rounds that we have data on this fall, and that’s more than good enough for me to want to roster him at $7k flat.

Best of luck this week!