GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jun 28, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Detroit, Michigan, for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Detroit Golf Club will be the host and measures as a 7,300-yard par 72 with Bentgrass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Tony Finau ($10,900 DraftKings)

Let’s begin with the defending champion of this event, Big Tone, aka Jabari Parker’s cousin. Full disclosure, I’m an atheist, but I will be praying to whoever wants to listen that Finau comes in lower owned than he should be this week because of both his recent form — and the fact that, for whatever reason, people want to jam in Rickie Fowler/Collin Morikawa.

In case you’ve been living near the Titanic wreckage these past two years, Finau has gone from someone we play at majors and tougher events to someone we strictly roster at easy tracks/birdie fests. He got his first win since 2016 back at the 2021 Northern Trust, where he outlasted Cam Smith in a playoff. That seemingly opened the floodgates for Finau, because he’s since won four times over the past 11 months. It all started at the 3M Open last July, where his score of 17-under-par was good enough to beat the field by three strokes.

Then, one week later, at the 2022 edition of this event, Finau won at a whopping 26-under-par and lapped the rest of the field by five strokes. Fast forward to this past April in Mexico, where he would take down the Mexico Open at 24-under par and beat World No. 1 (at the time) Jon Rahm by three strokes. Just to keep track, three of Finau’s past five wins have come at 20-under-par or better. The man feasts on easy courses.

His form leading into Mexico also was not great, much like his form leading into this week is not. I would not worry one bit about it, and I firmly expect him to flip the switch. As bad as he’s looked since his win in Mexico, Finau still ranks fourth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in SG: Ball-Striking, and sixth in SG: Total. Fade him at your own risk.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I have no interest in anyone else in the $10,000 range this week. Sure, you could chase Morikawa’s second round at Travelers or JT’s random strong performance, but if you do so, you’re likely fading Finau, and obviously, that’s not how I am building. The same goes for Rickie Fowler, as I just cannot pay $10,400 for him. He’s been absolutely fantastic all year, I get it, but I refuse to play someone who’s won five times in 14 years over a guy who’s won four times in the past 11 months. And sure, while you can theoretically jam in one of these $10k guys with Finau, you’re drawing extremely thin for the remainder of your roster. That’s simply not how I build.

Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im are the only two guys in the $9k range who I am interested in. Matsuyama has been amazing all season despite his neck injury, which seems to keep his ownership down every week. He’s missed just two cuts in 16 standard PGA TOUR events and has posted five top-16 finishes across his past eight starts. In that stretch, he ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking, while sitting fifth in SG: Total. He’s played Rocket Mortgage three times and posted a T21 and T13 in two of those.

Sungjae has been absolutely awful of late. Even last week, where he opened with a 65 and look primed to contend, he shot 67, 67, and 69 over his final three rounds and was forced to settle for a T29. Now, there’s nothing wrong with a T29, and it was definitely a step in the right direction after missing three of his past four cuts prior, but if I’m paying $9,400 for you, I have to be sure you have a ceiling.

The numbers do not support this, but I firmly believe he will bounce back in a big way this week. He’s played Detroit Golf Club three times and finished T8, T53, and T21, so he’s had success here before. In addition, the talent level in this field legit drops off a cliff once you go below Sungjae. You’re going to have people chasing Keegan Bradley’s win last week for $9,300 or Stephan Jaeger’s T5 here last year for $8,900. If you spend up a little more, you get to Sungjae, who’s in a class of his own. That’s just how I’m viewing this range.

In the $8k range, there are quite a few options. It’s hard to deny what Ludvig Aberg has been able to do in his brief time on TOUR. His T24 at Travelers last week marked his third top-25 finish in four career starts. He’s an absolute menace off the tee and can hit the ball a mile, which will come in handy this week at a course that rewards distance.

This 23-year-old Swede is a phenom and almost certainly the next big thing in professional golf, and while $8,700 is no bargain, he’s absolutely on the list this week. Since earning his TOUR card, which stretches across two starts, Aberg ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 13th in SG: Total.

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Both Byeong Hun An and Sepp Straka stand out in the low $9,000 range. Straka is a former PGA TOUR winner who has been crushing the ball of late, ranking 13th in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds. He sits 18th in SG: Total in the same time frame. He’s known to be quite volatile, and while that’s still the case, the big fella from Poland has now made four of his past five cuts. He’s also coming off a final round at Travelers, where he gained 1.48 strokes off-the-tee and 1.57 on approach, which bodes extremely well for his prospects this week. He’s played this event all four times it’s been held and has a pair of missed cuts (one of which was right on the number) and a pair of top-11 finishes in the other two. He’s a strong play at $8,300.

Very quietly, Benny An is having a great bounce-back season after losing his TOUR card last year. He’s already played 23 events this season and has made the cut in 17 of them with a pair of top 10s and six additional top 25s. Over his past 24 rounds, An ranks second in this field in SG: Ball-Striking behind only Hideki Matsuyama. He’s made the cut both times he’s played this event and posted a T13 here in 2019. His success here shouldn’t come as a big surprise, considering An is one of the longest hitters on TOUR. He’s also a bit underpriced based on his 45/1 odds to win.

Finally, Austin Eckroat stands out at $8,000 after the way he’s been playing of late. His T24 last week at Travelers marked the fifth time over his past five starts where’s finished inside the top 30. The only two golfers in this field to gain more total strokes than him in that span are Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. He might be good at golf.

I’ve written like 1,200 words already and only discussed a handful of guys, so we’ll fire through the $7,000 range.

The list of players I will be selecting from in this range include: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, J.J. Spaun, Brandon Wu, Taylor Pendrith, Sam Stevens, Lee Hodges, S.H. Kim, and Harry Hall.

Bez is an easy-course specialist who has been playing poorly of late but is underpriced for his talent at $7,700. Prior to his past couple of starts, he had been crushing with his irons, and he’s one of, if not the best, bentgrass putter in this field.

Spaun has made the cut in all four starts at Detroit Golf Club with a T13 and T8 mixed in. He’s a former PGA TOUR winner who has immense talent when he feels like showing up. It appears he likes showing up in Detroit for some reason.

Wu lights it up at non-elevated events/majors. He finished T30 here last year and this season has gone T9 in Canada, T23 at Byron Nelson, solo third in Mexico, and T2 at Pebble Beach. He also posted a T8 at the Wyndham Championship last year, which is a Donald Ross design — much like Detroit Golf Club.

Pendrith finished runner-up here to Tony Finau last year and absolutely torched DGC in every facet. He’s having a horrible season, but I still believe he’s a massive talent and will find his game sooner rather than later. He missed the cut at Travelers last week but shot a 66 on Friday and gained 2.3 strokes from tee-to-green and 1.93 ball-striking. He’s also from Ontario, Canada, which is about a three-and-a-half-hour drive from Detroit and will have family and friends in attendance to watch him play. Just wanted to throw that nugget in there.

Stevens is a bomber who also dominates at easy courses. He posted a T15 in Puerto Rico, T3 in Punta Cana, and a solo second at Valero already this season. He’s another one who missed the cut at Travelers but played great on Friday, as he gained 2.8 strokes ball-striking (I made a mistake in my tweet where I said he gained 3.4 strokes, please disregard). His $7,300 price tag is quite reasonable for his upside this week.

Hodges had been crushing prior to last week, making the cut in eight of his previous nine starts with four top-29 finishes. He also made the cut at this event last year and finished T44. He’s in play at $7,200.

Finally, both Kim and Hall are easy-course specialists who are a bit underpriced for that exact reason. Kim has top-25 finishes at both Valero and Mexico, while Hall has top-13 finishes in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Punta Cana. He’s also made 10 of his past 12 cuts. Both of these gentlemen are fine plays.

That’s all I got this week. If you like this content, please follow me on Twitter, as I usually post late-week thoughts on the slate.

Best of luck this week!