GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the RBC Canadian Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jun 7, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads up north to Toronto this week for the RBC Canadian Open. Oakdale Golf and Country Club will be the host, and measures as a 7,264-yard par 72 with a mix of Bentgrass and Poa greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Eric Cole ($7,900 DraftKings)

This is a misprice on the part of DraftKings. Cole’s posted three top-25 finishes across his past four starts, which includes last week’s T24 at Memorial and a T15 at the PGA Championship in two of the toughest fields we’ll see all season. His lone missed cut in this stretch was pretty easy to see coming at Colonial the week after Oak Hill. Guys do not play well in their debut at Colonial, especially the week after a surprising T15 at a major. He was an easy fade that week.

However, we will be hopping right back on the Cole train this week at his $7,900 price tag. There’s no way you can tell me guys like Adam Svensson or freaking Ludvig Aberg should be $500 more than EC this week. I’m not buying it. Dating back 24 rounds in this field, Cole sits sixth in Total Strokes Gained, behind just Hatton, Fleetwood, Conners, Rory, and Fitz. C’mon man.

In that 24-round stretch, his game’s been as well-rounded as you can get, sitting 10th from tee-to-green, 23rd in ball-striking and 28th in putting. He also just qualified for the U.S. Open on Monday, so you know his game is in strong shape. Cole does not seem like the type to look ahead, nor does he have that luxury, being a 34-year-old rookie.

Let’s ride, EC.

Mark Hubbard ($7,300 DraftKings)

Another blatant misprice is our boy Mark Hubbsy Hubbard. Guess who ranks No. 1 in this entire field in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds? You got it, Mark Hubbard!

Dating back to THE PLAYERS, he’s made eight of his 10 cuts, with six top-30 finishes in that stretch. Hubbard made the cut at this event last year, which I know was played on a different course, but should still play pretty similar, being that Stanley Thompson was the designer for both tracks. Either way, he should not be $7,300 with the way he’s been playing.

Hubbard fits any type of roster construction you’re looking for this week, and he will be on my single-entry team, almost certainly.

Shane Lowry ($9,400 DraftKings)

I think Lowry might go a bit overlooked with Cam Young for $100 less than him. Both guys have had their struggles putting, but the main difference between the two has been Lowry’s elite iron play. The Irishman ranks No. 2 in this field (behind Hubbard) over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach.

He’s coming off back-to-back solid finishes at the PGA Championship and Memorial and has played insanely well in each of his past two trips to Canada. Lowry finished runner-up to Rory in 2019 at Hamilton CC and then posted a T10 last year at St. Georges. I really don’t see him playing poorly this week, which is something I’m not sure I can say about Young.

This wasn’t meant to be a shot at Young, by the way. He’s still a massive talent and is definitely priced fairly — if not underpriced — at $9,300, but I imagine his ownership is going to end up north of 50% in high stakes stuff. There’s still a chance I run both, of course, but I will wait to see exactly how ownership shakes out late Wednesday night before I decide how to play this.

Regardless, Lowry is checking a lot of boxes and is a great play in all formats.

Young has remained elite off-the-tee over his past two starts but has really struggled with his short game, which led to back-to-back missed cuts. Theoretically, he should shred this place, but it’s a little worrisome. His Vegas numbers all look great, which makes him a huge value at $9,300 as well.

If you decide to eat his ownership, make sure you differentiate your roster elsewhere.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I will not be playing Rory McIlroy this week. I normally don’t love paying $11,500 for any golfer not named Scottie Scheffler, and especially when we are in a field like this that’s so incredibly top heavy. Playing Rory means if you try and roster a $9K player with him, you’re either ending up playing some random $6K loser OR two players in the low $7K range. That’s also when you already have guys like Hubbard on your roster already. If you feel comfortable rostering Dylan Wu, Carson Young, or Akshay Bhatia, by all means, jam Rory and someone else at the top, but I just do not like how that build looks.

Matt Fitzpatrick was very close to making my conviction plays, but I went with Lowry instead. I still plan on playing Fitz, as I loved the way he played at Memorial last week and that he finished T10 in Canada last year. If you throw out his first round last week, Fitz gained 8.8 strokes from tee-to-green and 4.8 on approach over his final three and shot up the leaderboard for a T9 finish. He simply fits my roster build, and I prefer him over Justin Rose, Corey Conners, and Tommy Fleetwood.

Unlike most weeks, the $8K range seems pretty gross to me this week. I have almost no interest in paying up for either of the Canadian Adams (Hadwin or Svensson), nor am I playing these Euro clowns Meronk/Hojgaard. This is not the DP World Tour, kids. It’s the big leagues. Fading DPWT players at PGA TOUR events very rarely costs you anything, I promise. Meronk, I’m sure, is supremely talented, having won three starts ago and finishing T5 in his last start. He’s also 45/1 on Pinnacle, but I still have no interest. Hojgaard’s only good finish on TOUR this year came at a resort course in Punta Cana. Let others chase.

The one guy who stands out to me is Nick Taylor at $8,100. He’s finished T28 and T27 at the last two editions of this event and seems incredibly safe this week. He does not really hurt you in any area, and his long-term rolling numbers are elite in this field. He ranks fourth, ninth, 18th, 12th, and 24th, respectively in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48, 36, 24, 16, and 12 rounds. Taylor is coming off back-to-back missed cuts at the PGA Championship and at Colonial, but I firmly expect him to get back on track in his home country this week.

The upper $7K range is also pretty barren this week, although I know my nemesis Aaron Rai is going to play well. If he does, it won’t be for my team.

I do think Lee Hodges is a good play at $7,500, however. He’s been hitting it really well of late and coming off back-to-back strong finishes at Colonial and Memorial. He’s also made six of his past seven cuts while making the cut at this event last year as well. I think he’ll end up highly owned in higher stakes stuff.

I also like Vincent Norrman a decent bit at the same price as Hodges. The Swede is a supremely talented ball-striker that cannot putt, like many other young players. He ranks 14th in SG: Ball-Striking and 25th in Total Strokes Gained across his past 24 rounds, which at $7,500 makes him a pretty strong play.

The bottom of the $7K range is my preferred area, especially Canadian Mackenzie Hughes at $7,400. My man loves the Canadian Open, having finished T28, T14, T8, and T32 over his past four starts at this event. I think the big thing many people fail to realize about DFS golf is that these guys are not robots. I’m not entirely sure why Mac Hughes always plays well at this event, but he simply does, and that’s good enough for me. Call that lazy analysis; I don’t care.

His T28 last year at St. Georges stands out the most to me among his finishes because, as previously stated, Oakdale should play quite similarly this week. Don’t forget that Hughes won on TOUR earlier this season at the Sanderson Farms in September. He’s missed four of his past five cuts, but still strikes me as too cheap at just $7,400. If it’s any consolation, he gained 2.6 strokes on approach during his second round at Memorial last week and missed the cut on the number. I think that bodes well for his chances this week.

Also, just as a cherry on top, Pinnacle has Hughes at 70/1 to win this week. That’s shorter than guys like Michael Kim, Nico Hojgaard, Adam Svensson, and Nick Taylor. I will gladly take my chances here.

Ben Martin is another play down here that I don’t mind at $7,300. He had been playing really well earlier in the season before coming back down to earth a bit recently. He still ranks ninth in SG: Ball-Striking in this field over his past 24 rounds, and he made the cut at St. Georges last year. You can do worse for the price.

If you like this content, please follow me on Twitter, as I usually post late-week thoughts on the slate.

Best of luck this week!

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