GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the PGA Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
May 17, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Rochester, New York, this week for the 105th PGA Championship. Oak Hill Country Club will host the second major of the year and looks to be an absolute mammoth of a course. It will measure as a 7,394-yard par 70 with Bentgrass greens. The rough is going to be a massive problem as well. The best players in the world are going to struggle to make par, and it’s going to be appointment television.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Scottie Scheffler ($11,200 DraftKings)

Scottie Scheffler wins this golf tournament. That’s basically all the analysis you need here. He gets the nod over Jon Rahm for me this week because of the short iron and around-the-green play, but obviously, it’s splitting hairs. I also don’t think Rahm is winning two straight majors because it’s just so freaking hard to do.

In case you were unaware, Scheffler is a machine, finishing worse than T12 one time all season. He’s posted nine top 10s in 13 starts and has two wins over his past seven starts. He also played horribly last week and still finished T5 at the Byron Nelson. We’re basically at the point where if he doesn’t putt well, he finishes T10, and if he does, he’ll either win or finish inside the top three.

The numbers are obviously off the charts as well, as Scheffler sits No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking, and SG: Total across his past 24 rounds. It’s all just laughable. The only one who has the floor/ceiling combo he possesses is Rahm, but I’m electing to take the $200 discount here.

There’s way too much value in the $7,000 range this week to fade Scheffler this week, and I will be rostering the betting favorite in all contest formats.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000 DraftKings)

Fleetwood might be my favorite play on the board this week, and was the first player I plugged onto my roster. He could have easily been priced where the Ty Hatton’s/Hideki’s of the world are priced, but DraftKings left him at $8,000. He’s having an amazing season and has really dialed in over the past month or so, posting a T3 at Valspar and then a T5 at Wells Fargo. Sandwiched between that was a T33 at Augusta and a T15 at the RBC as well.

He’s firing on all cylinders right now, ranking fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 13th in SG: Ball-Striking, 19th in SG: Putting, and third in SG: Total. Fleetwood finished T5 at last year’s PGA Championship and has made five of eight cuts overall at this tournament.

He will almost assuredly be on my single-entry roster.

Let’s go Tommy Lad.

Rickie Fowler ($7,600 DraftKings)

Fowler stands out in this loaded upper $7,000 range this week. He’s easily $500 too cheap and has been grinding all season long. In fact, he’s now finished inside the top 20 in seven of his past eight starts and has four top 10s on the season. Dating back 24 rounds, the former PLAYERS champ sits 12th in this field in SG: Total thanks to his incredibly well-rounded game.

Fowler’s PGA Championship record is pristine as well, even during the past few years when he’s been struggling. In 10 starts since 2013, he’s missed just one cut while posting three top 10s and two other top 20s. He’s always been strong on long, tough tracks and will be cement for me this week in single-entry contests.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

I have made it pretty clear above how I am going to be constructing my main roster this week, so that leaves only the $7,000 range to choose from for the remaining three spots. It just so happens that all the best plays on the slate this week come from this range, specifically from $7,600-$7,900.

Let’s begin with a trio of players that will all possibly find their way onto my roster: Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Patrick Reed. That meme with the chest X-Ray of the dog’s face can be applied to all three of these grizzled vets because they all have that dog in them. When we get to majors where the rough is as thick as ever, and par is a good score, I am absolutely riding with battle-tested veterans who have been there and seen all that over the years.

We can start with Scott, who has finally come to life of late, posting back-to-back top-eight finishes at the Byron Nelson and Wells Fargo. My favorite part about this mini stretch is that Scott’s putter has been scorching, sitting No. 2 in the field in SG: Putting over his past eight rounds. The Aussie has failed to miss a cut this year in 10 starts across both the PGA and DP World Tour, and there’s no way he’s breaking that trend this week. He would have been in play if he didn’t have this recent form, but now becomes one of the premier values on the slate at $7,800. He’s been playing PGA Championships for 100 years now and has a pair of top-fives at this event in his past five starts.

Rose is up next, and everything I just said about Scott can be applied to the Englishman. He’s had a resurgent season after winning at Pebble Beach and posting a T9 in Houston, T6 at THE PLAYERS, and T16 at Augusta. He’s not been red hot in any specific category but has been solid across the board, giving him a high floor almost every time he tees it up. Burying the lede here, but Rose’s PGA Championship history is ridiculous, even during the last few years when he was struggling. He’s posted three top-nine finishes — including twice in the past three years — and four additional top 25s since 2013. The man just knows how to play tough events, and he has my full confidence this week.

Finally, we have Patrick Reed, who is just the definition of a grinder. Every major you look up, and you’re like, how the hell did Patrick Reed sneak into the top 10? This, of course, happened again at Augusta last month, where he came out of nowhere for a T4 finish. Reed does not hit it long or particularly straight, but he’s got one of the best short games in the world and just absolutely finds another gear in these marquee events. It’s unexplainable through data, and he likely won’t project well this week, but I have zero doubt he grinds his way to another top-20 finish. At just $7,600, you’re getting a guy who has T5 upside while still being able to roster Scottie Scheffler. Not sure what else needs to be said.

Reed also has a pair of T3s and two other top-13 finishes over his past four starts on the LIV Tour.

I’m going back and forth on Joaquin Niemann. You can throw him in the same bucket as the previous three, as he’s a grinder who always finds a way to make the cut at these events. He’s a better bent grass putter and has played well recently on the LIV Tour with a pair of T8s over his past two starts. At $7,900, he’s 100% in play in all formats and will likely be popular in higher stakes stuff.

I don’t have a problem with Corey Conners either at $7,900. He’s an incredible ball-striker with a bad short game, so if he’s missing greens and fairways, he’ll implode. However, he can easily play well here and is on the radar.

I’m sure Wyndham Clark is going to be mega chalk at $7,500. Everything from the data to the betting odds would say this is a massive underprice, but I simply have no interest in rostering a guy coming off his first career win at a major championship in his next start. I’ll gladly side with the grizzled veterans right above him and watch the chalk fail.

The other $7,000 chalk will likely be Gary Woodland and potentially Mito Pereira, and while both are strong plays, I will be full fade. I simply do not trust Woodland’s short game, despite how good he’s been with his ball-striking. Pereira finished T3 last year and choked the trophy away to JT but remains too enigmatic to me in this field.

Best of luck this week!

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