The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA TOUR heads to Hoylake, England this week for the 151st Open Championship. Royal Liverpool will be the host course and measures as a 7,383-yard par 71 with a blend of fescue, bentgrass and poa greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Conviction Plays
Viktor Hovland ($10,000 DraftKings)
I almost never play Hovland despite always liking him on Monday when pricing comes out. I am rectifying that this week for better or worse. I firmly believe he’s in the tier directly after Scottie/Rahm/Rory, and it’s not long before we’re seeing him at close to $11,000 in these events. The Norwegian has quickly developed a persona of being a major killer, as he’s finished T7, T2, and T4 in three of his past four majors. The one where he didn’t post a top-seven finish was the U.S. Open just a few weeks ago, where he egregiously finished T19.
On the year, Hovland is 15-for-15 in making the cut and has eight top-10 finishes, including two wins. He’s also worked quite hard on his chipping, which has long been his biggest weakness. My thinking is simple here; Hovland has as much upside as literally anyone in this field and is arguably the safest play on the board when you factor in his likelihood of making the cut. He opened with a three-over 73 last week in Scotland to put this streak in jeopardy but then fired a 63 on Friday to remove all doubt.
His stoic nature on the golf course is very Brooks Koepka-esque, and I believe it’s only a matter of time before he wins a major. Being in the fairway is going to be quite important at Hoylake, with the tight penalty areas on six holes, so the fact Hovland ranks fourth in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee over his past 48 rounds is a pretty big boon to his value. His Open history reads T4, T12 in two starts, and we very could be adding a win to that come Sunday.
When you factor in price, recent form, major form, and rolling stats, Hovland is the best play on the board for my money.
Louis Oosthuizen ($6,900 DraftKings)
This is a classic case of out of sight, out of mind here with Oosthuizen. I went back and looked and found that Oosthy was $8,800 on DraftKings at St. Andrews for last year’s Open Championship. So basically, what you’re telling me is that his talent has evaporated enough to drop him nearly $2,000 in salary? I don’t think so.
Outside of a WD at the Masters in that monsoon, Oosthy is having a really strong season on the LIV circuit. He’s posted four top 10s on the year, including two over his past three starts. He even finished T10 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship back in December at St. Andrews.
Oosthuizen is an absolute grizzled veteran who’s been a mainstay at the Open for years now. He won this event back in 2010 and has two additional top-three finishes since then as well. I prefer him quite a bit to Robert Macintyre, who legit got his soul taken from him last week by Rory. My only concern with Oosthy is whether or not he’s gonna withdraw with some random injury, but that’s not a real concern.
Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts
I tried very hard to build teams I like with Scottie Scheffler, and I just can’t do it. You’re always left with some type of 2v2 with someone like Viktor and another mid-$9K player vs. Scottie and a $6K guy. You simply cannot punt off that final spot to jam in a $12,500 golfer. What Scottie is doing right now with his tee-to-green game has really not been done since prime Tiger, but even with that, the fact that he’s a ridiculous $2,500 more than guys like Xander Viktor and Cantlay and over $3,000 more than guys like Fleetwood Hatton, etc., make it nearly impossible to play him. He very well may win this week, and I look dumb, but remember, if he wins and you only get 4/6 through the cut, you’re not winning any money.
A similar sentiment can be made for Rory McIlroy at $11,900, although it’s a bit easier to build with him than Scottie. The fact remains paying $12,000 for a player in a field like this just is never sharp. You’re forced into fading too many guys who can potentially win. Of course, I think Rory is a smash play, however, and if you find a team you like with him, by all means. I just won’t be starting here and want to be fully transparent.
Moving down from there, we’ll start with Patrick Cantlay, who I think bounces back this week after royally screwing me last week in Scotland. Cantlay has top 15 finishes in all three majors this year and will likely play well this week. I’m playing Hovland over him, but for 1/4th of the ownership, Cantlay is a really sharp tournament play.
The sweet spot this week and where I will likely be finding my second golfer is from this low $9,000 range. Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry all stand out. I would prefer to get to Hatton, I think, but the build I am currently stuck on has Fleetwood on it, and I simply can’t spare the $100 anywhere else on that roster.
Hatton is having his best season on TOUR in 2023, having made 13-of-14 cuts with seven top-10 finishes (eight if you include his T7 in Abu Dhabi). Dating back 48 rounds in this field, only Rory Scottie and Rahm have gained more total strokes than Hatton. He’s a beast.
Fleetwood is having a great season in his own right after posting another top 10 last week in Scotland. His T6 at The Renaissance Club marked his third top-six finish across his past four starts and fourth over his past seven. The Open has been his favorite major over the years as well, and it really feels like he could win this week.
Tommy Lad finished T4 at St. Andrews last year and solo second to Shane Lowry at Royal Portrush in 2019. Throw in a T12 at Carnoustie in 2018, and you’d be hard-pressed to find someone with better recent Open history for the price. He’ll also have the English crowd behind him to hype him up.
Shane Lowry, of course, has to be mentioned in an Open Championship write-up. The 2019 Open champ loves playing on the links and has been incredibly steady all year. He’s finished T20 or better in all three majors so far in 2023 and ranks 12th in the field in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds — which dates back to the PGA Championship in mid May. Since winning at Royal Portrush in 2019, the Irishman has gone T12 and T21 in his two most recent Open starts and should, at the very least, split the difference this week and finish somewhere in the top 15. He may not win, but Lowry is as rock solid of a play as they come, especially in smaller field stuff where simply getting 6/6 through the cut is all that matters.
You could maybe talk me into Dustin Johnson, but outside of the guys I already mentioned, I have almost no interest in anyone until we get to the low $8K range.
Tony Finau and Justin Rose stand out as elite values. Finau especially, as this $8,200 price tag on him seems borderline ridiculous. I get he’s been horrible since his win in Mexico, but his Open history is as strong as anyone. In six career starts on the links, Finau has yet to miss a cut while posting finishes of T18, T27, T9, solo third, T15, and T28. If you go back 48 rounds, Finau sits fifth in this field on approach, sixth from tee-to-green, and 16th in Total Strokes Gained. If he misses his first ever Open cut this week at $8,200, I am okay with that, but he has to be played, in my opinion.
Rose at his peak is no longer as good as Finau at his, but nonetheless, $8,000 is a really strong price. The Englishman is having his best season in years and has been a stalwart at this tournament basically his whole career. Rose has five top-25s over his past seven Open starts and even finished T23 at this very course in 2014. Everything has been working for him outside of his off-the-tee game, but that’s a bit misleading because SG: OTT factors in driving distance. Rose actually ranks 18th in driving accuracy in this field over his past 48 rounds, and we know how important keeping it in the fairway will be this week. Much like Finau, if Rose misses the cut here at this price, there’s nothing we can do. I just know playing him is the right process.
Let’s speed through the $7K range. The pool I will be fishing from here includes Talor Gooch, Corey Conners, Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann, Brian Harman, and Honest Abe Ancer. This does not mean I have a problem with other players in the range; I will simply just not be playing them on my single entry team.
Conners, we know, is one of the best ball-strikers in the world and has back-to-back Open finishes of T28 and T15, which signals to me he’s pretty comfortable on links courses. After a final round 66 last week in Scotland, he appears dialed in.
Gooch is a monster that very few people are aware of because he went to LIV, but he’s already won a whopping three times this season over there, including at Valderrama, which is one of the toughest courses on the planet. In two Open starts, he’s made both cuts and finished T34, T33. He’s also one of the best wind players in the world, which should come in handy this week, especially over the weekend.
Patrick Reed comes off as one of the biggest tools in the sport of golf, but his talent is undeniable. He’s posted five top-five finishes on the LIV Tour already this year (including each of the past two weeks) and has made the cut in all three majors, including a T4 at Augusta and T18 at the PGA Championship. His Open history is a bit of a mixed bag, but he’s finished T20 or better in three of his past seven starts. With the way Reed is playing of late — and his penchant for showing up at big time events — I don’t see a reason to fade him at $7,600.
I like Niemann and Harman a bit less than the guys at the top of the range, but Niemann is still an elite ball-striker and cut-maker, and I think he finds the weekend this week. Harman has been in elite form of late with three top-12 finishes over his past three starts, including a runner-up at Travelers. After missing the cut at four of his five Opens, he’s finished T19 and T6 over his past two starts and seems primed to play well this week at Hoylake.
Chris Kirk would be the final guy I consider down here. His $7,000 price tag is pretty cheap for his talent level, and he’s been in good form of late with a T21 at the John Deere and T14 at Rocket Mortgage.
Finally, we have Bob Macintyre. He’s likely gonna be the mega chalk of the week after last week’s performance, but I really expect a bit of a letdown here, which of course, is all narrative nonsense. However, the only thing he was fading was an insanely tough birdie on 18 from Rory to win his home country’s open. Instead, from the rough, Rory fires a freaking 205-yard dart in the wind and drains an 11-footer to literally break Mac’s heart. I am not sure where you go from there. The numbers say Mac is a good play this week, and his Open history reads T6, T8, and T38 as well. It should be a layup at $6,800, but I am horrified he comes out flat after Rory stole his girlfriend last week.
That’s all I got this week. If you like this content, please follow me on Twitter, as I usually post late-week thoughts on the slate.
Best of luck this week!
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
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