GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Aug 10, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Memphis, Tennessee this week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. TPC Southwind will be the host course and measures as a 7,243-yard par 70 with Bermuda greens. This is the first round of the playoffs, so we have a 70-man, no-cut event on tap.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Scottie Scheffler ($12,100 DraftKings)

Pretty easy one here as DraftKings did not make Scheffler’s salary too high to where it would be tough to fit him. With his price actually sitting $400 cheaper than he was at The Open and this being a no-cut event, it just becomes a plug-and-play situation. You could easily make the argument for Rory or Rahm, but I am siding with the best player on the planet here.

Scheffler finally looked human at Royal Liverpool, finishing T23, but he still gained a ridiculous 7.5 strokes on approach and 4.06 more off the tee. We say it every week about his atrocious putting, but there’s gonna come a time when he simply doesn’t lose four strokes on the greens and wins a tournament by eight. That could very well be this week, and I will not be missing out on it.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Scheffler is the only guy I have true conviction in because I believe he’s going to win the tournament.

As mentioned above, I certainly would not talk you off of Rory or Rahm, but even with this being a no-cut event, you’re likely only playing one of these three, and I simply prefer Scheffler.

Moving down the board a bit, Viktor Hovland stands out in the $10K range. He’s played this event three times and has improved his finishing position each time, including last year’s T20. A poor final round at The Open prevented him from truly contending, but he still gained 7.4 strokes ball-striking for the tournament and remains dialed in that department. Dating back 48 rounds in this field, only Scheffler, Rory, Rahm, and Cantlay rank higher in SG: Ball-Striking than Hovland. He makes for a really strong second golfer, even if you start with Scheffler.

Anytime Patrick Cantlay is under $10,000, you have to take notice. He’s not been at his best lately, but he’s never really been a huge links guy, so I am not too worried about it. Now that we are back in the States and at a ball-strikers course, Cantlay could easily just light it up this week.

Collin Morikawa‘s price immediately stood out to me as being too cheap at just $9,000. Despite what feels like a bit of a down season, Morikawa still sits third in this field in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds. He was also just a couple of bounces away from winning the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks. In three career starts at TPC Southwind, Morikawa has yet to finish worse than T26 and posted a T5 last year. He’s on a lot of sharp peoples’ betting cards this week and can absolutely contend here.

Sam Burns is the only golfer in the $8k range who I am currently eyeing. He’s played very well at this course with a T2 and T20 over his past two starts. He’s also coming in hot after gaining 4.7 strokes on approach and 4.1 more on the greens last week at the Wyndham.

At just $8,100, he’s a pretty strong value here.

The $7K range is littered with strong options, but the ones that are in my player pool as of now consist of Russell Henley, Benny An, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Stephan Jaeger, Emiliano Grillo, and Harris English.

Henley is coming off a great week at the Wyndham, where he should have won but coughed it up late due to some awful bogeys. Nonetheless, he still gained 5.8 strokes ball-striking and has eight top-20 finishes across his past 11 starts. He has no chance of missing the cut this week and has a T7 finish at this track back in 2016. Henley is absolutely in play.

For the same reasons Henley is in play, so is Corey Conners. He made the cut in both starts in Europe and now has four top 20s over his past eight starts. He’s never missed a cut at this event before, which obviously won’t matter this week, but still means he’s been pretty consistent here over the years. I do not expect him to truly contend, but he could easily finish inside the top 10 and only costs $7,600.

Benny An has quietly been on a tear of late with a T2 last week at the Wyndham and a T3 back at the Scottish Open three starts ago. He was no slouch in between those two starts, either, with a T23 at The Open Championship. During this stretch, An ranks seventh in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and fourth in SG: Total. He’s played this event twice, missing the cut once and posting a T12 in his other start. At $7,500, with the way he’s been playing, An is a very strong option this week.

Speaking of guys being on a tear, no one has been hotter on TOUR than J.T. Poston, who’s posted four top-seven finishes across his past five starts. During this run, it’s largely been the short game that’s carried Poston, but over his past two starts, he ranks fourth in this field on approach, so he’s really putting it all together right now. The other thing working in his favor is history at TPC Southwind, where he’s finished T30 or better in three of four starts. I see no reason to not go back to Poston this week at this very reasonable $7,300 price tag.

Stephan Jaeger is really having a massive season and has become one of the premier cut makers on the PGA TOUR. He’s made the weekend in 25-of-28 starts this year, including 17 of his past 18. The last time he failed to make a cut was the RBC Heritage back in April. He’s still a horrible putter but is a real maestro from tee to green, ranking 13th in that department over his past 24 rounds. He also ranks second in this field in total birdies made in that same time frame, trailing only Lucas Glover.

Emiliano Grillo and Harris English round out the $7K range for me this week. Grillo somehow has become one of the better putters on the PGA TOUR after struggling for many years, which has really catapulted him to a massive 2023 season year. In addition to his win at the Charles Schwab, Grillo has six additional top-10 finishes as well, including two over his past two starts at the 3M and The Open. He’s only played this event once, finishing T32 here last year. With the way his game is clicking right now, this $7,100 tag is a massive bargain.

Finally, English is sort of a bet on course history play, as he’s historically done well at TPC Southwind over the years, posting a win and two top 10s in seven career starts. He’s coming off a T33 at the Wyndham last week, where he gained six strokes on approach. Unfortunately, he lost three strokes around the greens, but that feels like an anomaly. I expect a strong performance out of the veteran this week, and he’s quite easy to fit at just $7k flat.

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Some names in the $6K range that stand out are J.J. Spaun, Lee Hodges, and Andrew Putnam. Spaun was on his way to a top-10 finish last year before a final-round 78 dropped him all the way to T28. He’s played well of late, making six of his past seven cuts with a T10 at the Barracuda.

Hodges is coming off his first career PGA TOUR win at the 3M, so it remains to be seen how he plays in his first start since. However, he cannot miss the cut as we know and should score enough to justify this $6,500 price tag. He also finished a very strong T13 here last year.

Putnam has been a really solid cut maker and has finishes of T2, T24, and T5 in each of his past three starts at TPC Southwind. He’s accurate off the tee and is a great putter, which is a recipe for success here. He’s also been strong with his irons of late, ranking 14th in the field on approach over his past 24 rounds.

Best of luck this week!