GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Farmers Insurance Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jan 24, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR remains in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines will be the host and has two different courses that will be in play this week. The South Course, which will be played in three of the four rounds, measures as a 7,765-yard par 72 with poa greens. The North Course, which will be played just once over the first two rounds, measures as a 7,258-yard par 72 with bentgrass greens.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Keegan Bradley ($8,900 DraftKings)

Torrey Pines is the ultimate Keegan course. Putting is usually muted a bit while hitting the ball, both long and straight, is paramount. If you don’t know, Keegan does, in fact, have an elite history at Torrey, having posted three top fives and two T16s over his past nine trips. He’s also just missed one cut over those nine starts as well.

Keegs is coming off an elite performance at the Sony the last time we saw him, finishing T2 and gaining 5.5 strokes ball striking in the process. He’s far too cheap in this spot at just $8,900, and I fully expect him to continue his strong play at this event.

Sepp Straka ($8,600 DraftKings)

People still do not realize how good of a golfer Straka is. The big fella from Austria is quietly up to No. 17 in the world and is still continuing to improve. Straka won his second career PGA TOUR title last July at the John Deere Classic and has played the best golf of his career since. He’s now finished T12 or better in five of his past nine starts, which include a runner-up at the Open Championship, T6 at the TOUR Championship, and then another runner-up at the Hero.

If you run back this field’s past 48 rounds, Straka ranks ninth on approach, 28th in putting, and 15th in Total Strokes Gained. Oh, by the way, he’s got a very strong history at Torrey, making 3-of-4 cuts with a pair of top-16 finishes. He’s checking quite a few boxes for me this week at a very strong price.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

I believe you can make a case for anyone in the $10,000 range this week. However, I will not be playing Patrick Cantlay after he melted down on Sunday at the AMEX. I don’t know what’s wrong with him right now, but something is off. All of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa make for outstanding plays this week.

I would rank Morikawa No. 1 among that trio, with Xander next and Homa very slightly behind. Morikawa has a pair of top-four finishes at Torrey, which include both last year’s Farmers and the 2021 U.S. Open. He finished T21 in his first start here back in 2020 as well. No one in this field gains more strokes per round from tee to green than Morikawa does, as he’s averaging 2.41 over his 10 career rounds.

Morikawa ranks No. 1 in this field over the past 48, 36, and 12 rounds in SG: Ball Striking and has now finished T7 or better in each of his past three starts. He’s also from California and putts his best on poa. Play him.

Schauffele started his career not playing well at Torrey but has quickly turned that around these past few years, finishing T2 in 2021 and then T13 last year. He’s coming off a pair of top 10s to begin his 2024 season and looks incredibly healthy at the moment after dealing with a back problem for a decent stretch of 2023. I explained how Morikawa ranks No. 1 in SG: Ball Striking over the past 48 rounds, but Schauffele ranks No. 2 in the same time frame but ranks No. 1 in Total Strokes Gained as well. He’s the best golfer in this field and is also from California, so his putting splits on poa are strong.

Homa is the defending champ at this event and is becoming a serial winner. He took down the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour back in November and now has seven worldwide wins to his name, six of which have come on the PGA TOUR. The man is a killer, and I think he’s going to win a major this year.

Homa has virtually zero weaknesses, as he’s a phenomenal ball-striker with an even better short game. He ranks fifth in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds, and just like Morikawa and Xander, is a Cali kid who loves to play in his home state. In addition to last year’s win, Homa has a T18 and T9 as well over his past four trips to Torrey.

Player Pool: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa

DraftKings $9,000+ Range

I really don’t like much in the $9,000 range this week. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with Sungjae Im at $9,900, but I would just prefer to get up to one of the $10,000 guys if paying up. He does have a strong course history, though, and has opened the season hot with a T5 and T25.

After waxing poetic about Ludvig Aberg for months now, he’s been rather mediocre to begin 2024, and I highly doubt I go there at $9,700 this week. HOWEVER, his skill set should absolutely play at Torrey, as no one hits it longer or straighter off the tee than the Swede. He’ll definitely be low-owned this week and obviously has the talent to win at any course on this planet.

Jason Day would be my preferred option at $9,500 this week, as no one on Earth likes Torrey Pines as much as the Aussie. Day has SIX top-seven finishes over his past 10 starts at this event, including two wins in 2015 and 2018. He looks healthy right now and has been playing well, so if you want to roster him, this is certainly the time to do so.

Player Pool: Sungjae Im, Ludvig Aberg, Jason Day

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

I already touched upon Keegan and Sepp above, so we’ll start with my next favorite play in this range — Sahith Theegala.

Theegala has played Farmers twice in his career, finishing T25 in 2022 and then T4 last year. On paper, it does not appear that Theegala should be a good fit at Torrey, as he sprays the ball literally all over the place, but he gained 6.71 strokes on approach last year and was pretty neutral OTT. Theegala is another California guy, growing up in Orange County and going to college at Pepperdine, meaning poa is his favorite putting surface.

When Theegs pops, he really pops, and who am I to argue with his results at this event? Count me in at $8,700.

Hideki Matsuyama finally played decent in his last start at the Sony, and I MAY be back in on him. This is only because he’s been a fixture at Torrey Pines for a decade now, making 8-of-10 cuts with two top-16s, a T9 and a T3. Hideki gained both off the tee and on approach at Waialae, and we know he’s always been an elite long-iron player, which is precisely what Torrey calls for. I don’t mind him at $8,500.

I have no clue what to make of Justin Rose. I just think he’s over 40 now and will never be the player he used to be, but he can still play well any given week. Torrey has been one of the Englishman’s favorite courses on TOUR over his career, as Rose has a win, a T18, T8, T6, and T4 over his past six starts. He was not particularly good at Sentry or Sony, but he usually gets up for this event and is cheap at just $8,300.

Player Pool: Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose

DraftKings $7,000 Range

The $7,000 range is a mess this week. There are going to be A LOT of landmines coming from here this week, and if anyone tries to tell you they have conviction in any of these guys, just know they’re lying. Having said that, we all have to play a few of them, so let’s get started.

Shane Lowry feels way too cheap at $7,900, but we have not seen him much lately. The Irishman has not played this event in a while but did post a T7 and T13 here in 2015 and 2016. Lowry missed the cut last week at the AMEX but has been playing pretty well on the DP World Tour this fall, with two T18s and a T3 in four starts. I always trust Lowry on tough courses, and this week is no different.

Oh god, I am writing up Luke List. As much as I know I will regret this; List has been making cuts and even putting decent of late somehow. The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open Champion has six top-25 finishes across his past eight starts, which, of course, includes his win at the Sanderson Farms. List ranks fourth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in Total Strokes Gained over his past 24 rounds. I already know he’s going to revert back to his 2023 putting form this week, but he absolutely has to be in play at $7,800.

I am going right back to my boy Steph Jaeger this week after he had a poor Sunday at the AMEX and had to settle for a T52. Jaeger still struck it really well in La Quinta and ranks ninth in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds. That’s pretty darn good for a $7,800 golfer.

Ryan Fox is also someone who I think I trust on tough courses. He’s a better golfer than this $7,500 price tag would suggest, and he just finished T31 and T14 in Dubai these past two weeks, so his game is in pretty good shape. Fox has never played Torrey before but is quite long off the tee, so he should be able to hold his own.

Ryo Hisastune is not a household name but he is supremely talented. He’s made 21 of his past 28 worldwide cuts, with eight top-10s, including a T6 at the ZOZO back in October. Hisastune is also coming off a T11 last week at the AMEX, where he closed with a final-round, eight-under 65. He’s a really strong putter as well, gaining over 2.6 strokes over his two measured rounds last week and 6.95 at the Sony. He’s got a ton of juice for a $7,500 golfer.

Finally, we will round out the range with who’s who of names at the bottom of this range. All of Taylor Montgomery, J.J. Spaun, Taylor Moore, Alex Smalley, Davis Thompson, and Justin Suh will be in play for me this week.

T-Mont was not that great last week but made another cut and is 2-for-2 in that department at the Farmers, including a T11 in 2022.

Spaun has not hit the ball well lately but has four top-35 finishes at Torrey in seven starts. He’s not a great putter but has historically gained on these Poa greens at Torrey.

Taylor Moore is a great putter but not a great ball-striker. However, he’s finished T21 and T25 in each of his past two starts at the ZOZO and Sentry and posted a T11 at this event last year.

Davis Thompson has made seven consecutive cuts and finished T21 last week at the AMEX. He’s only played Torrey once, which came last year when he finished T69. He’s a much-improved golfer now and ranks 25th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds.

Alex Smalley is another strong ball-striker who cannot make a putt. He also finished T21 last week and is 2-for-2 at Torrey with a T37 last year. Smalley gained 4.4 strokes ball striking at the Sony and then 1.5 more last week in his two measured rounds in La Quinta. He SHOULD make the weekend in this spot.

Finally, I am begrudgingly going back to Justin Suh, as I just believe in his long-term talent despite missing each of his past two cuts. Suh finished T20 at Torrey last year and T37 back in 2021. This is a get-right spot for him.

Player Pool: Shane Lowry, Luke List, Stephan Jaeger, Ryo Hisastune, Taylor Montgomery, J.J. Spaun, Taylor Moore, Davis Thompson, Alex Smalley, Justin Suh

Best of luck this week!