GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the AT&T Byron Nelson

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
May 10, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch will be the host and is a par 71, measuring at 7,481 yards. We will also be back on Bentgrass greens this week.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Seamus Power ($8,900 DraftKings)

I was waiting for Power to show us some sign of life so that we could feel comfortable rostering him this week in Texas, and he delivered. The Irishman finished T18 last week at the Wells Fargo and did so by gaining strokes in every department. He’ll now be making his third career appearance at TPC Craig Ranch, with the first two resulting in T17 and T9 finishes. This is not entirely surprising for Power, who makes it a habit of lighting up easy courses.

It was just seven short months ago when he won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He then followed that up with a T3 at Mayakoba and T5 at the RSM Classic.

Obviously, we are not getting a massive bargain here at $8,900, but I feel extremely confident that Power will build on last week’s success and continue his strong play this week in Texas.

Stephan Jaeger ($8,200 DraftKings)

This is a rinse-and-repeat situation, as Jaeger, yet again, is a bit underpriced for the way he’s been playing. He rarely contends due to an egregious putter, but his ball-striking has been superb this season. Jaeger ranks sixth in this field in that department over his past 24 rounds while sitting an even more impressive third in SG: Tee-to-Green in the same time frame.

The man simply does not miss cuts, as he’ll enter play this week having made 14-of-17 on the season. Despite only one top-10 finish this year, Jaeger does have six top 30s, including each of the past two weeks at Quail Hollow and in Mexico. He played this event last year and finished T38, so he does have some familiarity. With the way he’s been playing this season, I like him to improve on that and contend this week.

He’s a massive bargain at $8,200.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000 DraftKings)

Bez will not be highly owned this week, especially in high stakes stuff. However, you can almost assuredly pencil in a made cut with a chance for more beyond that. I love targeting the South African on easy courses, as they, more times than not, turn into putting contests, where we know he thrives. He finished runner-up last season at the John Deere and finished T12 at this very event.

He’s as sold a cut-maker as you’re going find on the PGA TOUR for the most part, and he should not cost $800 less than Maverick McNealy or $500 less than Benny An in this spot.

He will be on my single-entry roster more than likely.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Obviously, the big question of the week is what to do with Scottie Scheffler. I really, really do not like paying for $12,000 (11.9K) golfers that often, and it’s even more concerning that this is one week before a major. Obviously, Scheffler is by far the most talented player in this field, and his odds of winning have gotten even better after Jordan Spieth withdrew. However, as I always say, nothing is done in a vacuum in DFS, and by rostering Scheffler, you have to stomach quite a few volatile plays in the $7,000 range.

You can easily start with him and make a good team, just know these birdie-fest events get a bit wonky, and Scheffler’s putter has not been great all year. Even if he wins, you still need to get 5/6 through the cut at the minimum to make money in tournaments. I personally will be fading him, but I cannot fault you for going to him this week.

The question for me this week is whether to start with Tom Kim, K.H Lee, or Matt Kuchar. I most likely will be rostering one of them on my main team, and Kuchar was my initial lean, but the roster I liked most with him had J.J. Spaun on it, and he’s since withdrawn. The other roster I liked had Tom Kim but also had Mark Hubbard, who also withdrew. So we are basically back to the drawing board.

You can make significant cases for all three, though. Kuchar has the least amount of win equity among the trio. My favorite would be Kim, who won twice on TOUR last season, both at birdie fests and is coming off a strong performance at Wells Fargo, where he finished T23 and gained 6.7 strokes ball-striking. It’s hard not to love K.H Lee, who’s won this event each of the past two years. He also played well last week with a T8. He’s very much in consideration. Kuchar always plays well in Texas and has had a T17 and T12 at this course for the past two years. He’s been playing great this season with three top 10s already on the year, including most recently at the Valero (Texas), where he posted a T3.

My next big decision point is between Taylor Montgomery and Tom Hoge. There’s also a slight chance I run both of them, but if that happens, that’s a five $8K player build, and I’m not sure that’s what I want to do. Hoge rates out as the best iron payer in this field long term, ranking No. 1 in SG: Approach over his past 48 rounds.

He also finished T17 here last year and is a big Texas guy, having played his college golf at TCU. Montgomery, on the other hand, is an easy course specialist, which isn’t surprising since he’s such an elite putter. He has no course history here, and he missed two straight cuts in his past two starts, but I think he plays really well this week.

Joseph Bramlett is my favorite $7,000 player on the board this week. He’s crushing it with his ball-striking right now and has made the cut at this event each of the past two years, including a T7 in 2021.

Sam Stevens might catch some steam this week. He’s from Fort Worth and has been dialed in from tee-to-green of late, sitting 10th in that department over his past 24 rounds. He also ranks fifth in SG: Ball-Striking in that time frame as well. He misses too many cuts for my liking but is certainly in play this week.

No one is going to play Aaron Rai this week after his back-to-back missed cuts at Wells Fargo and Mexico, but it’s highly unlikely he misses three straight. He’s usually pretty reliable and finished T46 here last year. He’s not a bad play at $7,500. He ranks fourth in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 in this field.

Finally, Nate Lashley and Andrew Novak stand out for me at the bottom of the $7,000 range. Lashley usually plays well at easy tracks, evidenced best by his win at the Rocket Mortgage a few years ago. He’s been playing well of late also with three straight made cuts, including a pair of top-31s at the RBC and Wells Fargo. He also finished T17 here last year.

Novak is a short-game specialist that’s been making a ton of cuts this year, and if you need the salary relief feel free to play him. He made the cut here last year with a T46 and just finished T9 at the Valero a few weeks ago.

Best of luck this week!

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