GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the American Express

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jan 18, 2024

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

The PGA TOUR begins its California swing this week with the American Express. This tournament features a three-course rotation, but the Pete Dye Stadium Course will be played once during the first three rounds and then again during the final round. It measures as a 7,187-yard par 72 with Poa greens. Unlike most weeks, there will be a 54-hole cut this week after the third round, meaning we can potentially be a bit more aggressive with our player selection.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Adam Hadwin ($8,300 DraftKings)

Hadwin is the Stadium Course king. In eight starts at this event dating back to 2015, the Canadian has two runner-up finishes, a T6, T3, and a pair of top 25s, all while failing to miss a single cut. Among golfers who have made more than two career starts at the Amex, only Si Woo Kim, Sam Burns, and Lanto Griffin average more total strokes gained per round at the Stadium Course.

I’m convinced that if Hadwin did not miss the cut last week at Waialae, he would be $9,000 this week and not $8,300. He only had one bad round last week, so I am not going to overthink this one bit.

Hadwin is an elite play at this price point.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000+ Range

You could really make a case for any of Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, or Xander Schauffele above $10,000 this week, as there’s a clear tier gap after this triumvirate. I obviously will always lean Scottie in a spot like this, but he is $600 more than Cantlay and $500 more than Xander, both of whom have a really strong course history here.

After it looked like Scheffler might have solved his putting woes, he went out and lost 2.64 strokes on the greens at the Sentry, which was incredibly frustrating. However, he did gain over eight strokes of ball-striking, which somehow has become commonplace for the No. 1 player in the world.

Scheffler has a third-place finish here in 2020, with an MC, T25, and T11 each of the past three years, respectively. Cantlay has the best history of the range, posting two ninth-place finishes and a runner-up in 2021. Xander has only played this event once since 2017, which came last year when he finished T3.

My order for the three quite obviously is Scottie, Cantlay, and Xander, but really, you can’t go wrong with whoever you choose. I will also say it’s not THAT hard to jam in both Cantlay and Xander, with everyone getting three rounds this week.

It’s harder to do with Scheffler but still doable.

Player Pool: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele

DraftKings $9,000+ Range

I am not too enamored with this range, but the three who stand out the most to me are Justin Thomas, J.T. Poston, and Chris Kirk. I would not play JT in any type of cash game setup, but I do believe that he’s rediscovered his game and is ready to have a massive 2024 season. He smashed all three fall events he played, posting three top fives, and also looked good at the Ryder Cup. During this stretch, only Scottie ranks higher in SG: Tee-to-Green, while only Xander ranks higher in Total Strokes Gained.

Poston has been scorching hot to begin the season, finishing T5 at the Sentry before a sixth-place finish last week at the Sony. He also posted a T3 at the Shriners back in October, so his game has been in a really good place for months now. JTP ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 16 rounds and has gained 2.9 or more strokes putting in each of his past four starts. He’s also gained on approach in four of his past five as well. In seven career starts at this event, Poston has two top sevens and a T25. He’s a former winner on TOUR and is playing the best golf of his career right now, making him a strong value at just $9,100.

Speaking of red hot, Chris Kirk is maybe the hottest player on the planet right now. If not for a poor putting performance last week at the Sony, he might have won back-to-back titles. Kirk gained 7.7 strokes on approach and 4.2 more off the tee at Waialae last week, which was on the heels of his win at the Sentry. He would ultimately settle for a T18 because his short game failed him, but make no mistake. This man is dialed in right now.

Kirk is also coming off a T3 at this event last year, which marked the best finish of his career in La Quinta. It’s really hard to say anything negative about Kirk right now, and when you factor in price, he might be the safest play on the board.

Player Pool: Justin Thomas, J.T. Poston, Chris Kirk

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DraftKings $8,000 Range

What’s there left to say about Eric Cole? All this guy does is play every week and post top-20 finishes. He was at it again last week at the Sony, where he finished T13, which was on the heels of a T14 at Sentry, which was on the heels of three consecutive top-three finishes in the fall. The man is just really good at golf. I’ve mentioned this before, but only Scottie Scheffler ranks higher in SG: Approach over the past 48 rounds than Cole, while only Scottie, Xander, Cantlay, and J.T. Poston rank higher in Total Strokes Gained over the same timeframe. The run he is on is insane.

Cole’s biggest bugaboo is his off-the-tee play, but he gained over three strokes in that department last week. If he repeats that performance this week and doesn’t uncharacteristically lose 1.8 around the greens again, he’s got easy top-10 upside, if not top-five. Also, unlike last week, we can roster him at $8,800 and not $9,700.

How ’bout my boy Taylor Montgomery? Sometimes, you can just see stuff coming, and that’s how I felt with T-Mont last week. He put on a clinic at Waialae, gaining 7.1 strokes on approach en route to his T13 finish. It would have been much higher, except one of the best putters on earth forgot how to putt for a week. That might be pushing it because Montgomery did technically gain strokes on the greens, but he left plenty out there.

DraftKings gave him a full $1,000 price bump after last week’s performance, but with the field being so top-heavy this week, he absolutely belongs in this low $8,000 range. In his lone start at the Amex last year, T-Mont finished solo fifth and averaged 1.5 SG: Putting per round at the Stadium Course. If he repeats that this year, we’re looking at another strong result.

Andrew Putnam rounds out the range, but I gotta say, there’s always something about playing this guy that worries me. Last week, he was pretty poor with his irons, losing 2.9 strokes on approach. He more than made up for it, though, gaining 6.3 strokes putting, which is something we know Putnam can do whenever. He also boasts elite history at this event, making each of his past six cuts in La Quinta with three top-21 finishes and a T10 as well. After his T10 at the Sony last week, Putnam got a $500 price increase but still remains firmly in play here.

Player Pool: Eric Cole, Adam Hadwin, Taylor Montgomery, Andrew Putnam

DraftKings $7,000 Range

As per usual, there are a ton of interchangeable options in the $7,000 range.

Stephan Jaeger made another cut and posted another top-20 finish last week. I love this guy. He’s what feels like a poor man’s Eric Cole right now, minus the massive ceiling. Jaeger is a literal cut-making machine that seems to lack that extra gear. However, when he’s priced at just $7,900, like he is this week, we do not care nearly as much about his ceiling.

After his T18 last week at the Sony, DraftKings decided to drop his price by $200 for reasons unknown. Jaeger was actually bad with his irons last week, overall, but he finished strong by gaining 1.4 strokes on Sunday. He also gained strokes putting for the week, which is always a nice surprise. He played here last year and posted a T36, which he should absolutely build on this week. This price is just silly to me.

Beau Hossler is always going to be in play when he’s priced in the $7,000 range, as he’s really become a more consistent golfer over the past year. He had a monster Fall Swing, making five of five cuts with a runner-up at the ZOZO, T7 at the Shriners, and T15 at the World Wide Technology Championship. As a result, he ranks 13th in the field in Total Strokes Gained over this stretch and is a massive value this week.

Alex Noren continued his strong play last week, although a poor final round dropped him to T42. Nonetheless, he gained strokes both off the tee and on approach and has a pretty decent history at this event. He’s now made seven of his past eight cuts across both the PGA and DP World Tour.

Keith Mitchell did what he always does last week, which was gain strokes off the tee and lose strokes on approach. He also gained quite a bit around the greens, and his game looks to be in pretty decent shape heading to an event where he finished T22 last year.

Davis Thompson had a really strong Fall Swing and finished runner-up here to Jon Rahm last year. He made the cut last week and gained strokes both on approach and on the greens.

I never know what to make of Thomas Detry, but he did finish T26 here last year and ranks 37th in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 48 rounds.

It looks like Adam Schenk is rounding into form after struggling to begin the fall. He finished T29 at the Sentry, and his long-term rolling numbers look great. This $7,600 price is very fair.

Erik Van Rooyen has been rolling as well. He won his second career PGA TOUR title at the World Wide Technology Championship in the fall and ranks second in this field behind only Scottie Scheffler in SG: Ball-Striking over the past 24 rounds. EVR finished T6 at this event last year and is a strong play once again.

Ben Griffin continues to play good golf after his T30 last week. He usually thrives during this part of the calendar and finished T32 at this event last year.

Alex Smalley has a pair of top 25s here over the past two years, and despite missing the cut last week, has looked pretty good this fall. Smalley just couldn’t make a putt last week but gained over four strokes ball striking. I will go right back to him.

Player Pool: Stephan Jaeger, Beau Hossler, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson, Thomas Detry, Adam Schenk, Erik Van Rooyen, Ben Griffin, Justin Suh, Alex Smalley, Patton Kizzire

Best of luck this week!

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