GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the 3M Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jul 26, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Minnesota this week for the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities will be the host course and measures as a 7,400-yard par 71 with Bentgrass greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Cameron Young ($10,900 DraftKings)

I have been reluctant to play Young much this year because he’s really shown nothing outside of just a handful of events. He’s since corrected that over the past few weeks, posting a T6 at the John Deere before following that up with a T8 last week at the Open. Young put on an absolute ball-striking clinic last week in England, gaining a ridiculous 16.83 strokes, which was a full SIX strokes clear of Sepp Straka, who ranked second for the week.

Young simply stands out the most in the $10k range due to the lack of form from Tony Finau and Sungjae Im — although the latter has shown signs of life lately. Young should be able to overpower TPC Twin Cities, and if he simply gets a few putts to drop he’s very much live to win his first career PGA TOUR event. He’s by far my favorite play on the board and the only one as of now that will 100% be on my single entry team.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

You can make a good case for both Im and Hideki Matsuyama in this spot. Im has a really strong history at the 3M with a T2 last year and T15 back in 2019. It feels like he’s been broken for a while now, but has still posted three top-30 finishes across his past four starts. Obviously, you’re going to want better than a T30 if you’re paying $10,200 for someone, but he’s trending in the right direction at least and is coming back to a course that’s treated him well.

Matsuyama has been super steady all year but has really not shown much of a ceiling, posting just two top 10s since January. I prefer a little more ceiling for a $10,000 player, but this field is not great, so he could easily buck that recent trend.

Moving down a bit, I really do not see myself going to anyone in the $9k range. Emiliano Grillo has been really good this year, but I fear that the bottom could fall out at a moment’s notice, so at $9,700, that’s a pass. Same thing goes for Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka. It just feels like there’s a pretty sizable tier break below $10,000 this week, even if those guys are not in peak form. Also, I don’t think it needs to be said, but if you’re thinking of playing Justin Thomas, simply don’t.

I have almost no interest in the mid-to-upper $8k range either this week. Adam Hadwin seems to be the flavor of the week in the betting streets, but at $8,900, I simply cannot get there.

My favorite range of the week is the low $8,000s. I like all of J.T. Poston, Mark Hubbard, Lucas Glover (slightly less conviction here), Vincent Norrman, and Beau Hossler.

Starting with Poston and Hubbard both have a good history at this course, with Poston finishing T11 and T28 in the past two years and Hubbard posting a T16 in his lone start in 2021. Hubbard has four top-10 finishes over his past seven starts and ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds.

Poston, after being pretty hit or miss all year, has a pair of T6s across his past three starts and has really caught fire with his putter. When he starts rolling with the flat stick he becomes dangerous, and with his already strong course history here, the time to strike is now.

Glover is playing his best golf of the season by far, with three top-six finishes over his past three starts. In that stretch, he ranks No. 1 in all of the following Strokes Gained categories: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Ball-Striking, and Total. In addition, he sits 11th in SG: Putting during this run and has really caught fire. It’s hard to tell if he’s going to completely flame out this week or if he keeps this momentum going. In three starts at TPC Twin Cities, Glover has two missed cuts and a T7 back in 2019. If you told me he wins this event I would believe you just as quickly as if you told me he missed the cut. This makes him a pretty intriguing GPP play.

I am becoming a really big Vinny Norrman fan. This Swede can really play and is coming off his first career PGA TOUR win at the Barbasol two weeks ago. Keep in mind he is only 25 years old, so the fact he’s already winning on TOUR is a pretty telling sign. He followed up his win with a very respectable T25 at the Barracuda last week and has the luxury of not having to fly home from the Open Championship to play this week. Norrman has played really well at “easy tracks” this season, posting top-25 finishes in Punta Cana, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and at the Rocket Mortgage. Only Sepp Straka has gained more total strokes than Norrman has over the past 24 rounds, and at $8,100, I think his ceiling is too strong to pass up here.

Hossler is someone who always seems to project better than he should. However, he’s in the midst of a strong stretch of golf after a T26 at the John Deere and T6 last week at the Barracuda. He’s not the best iron player, but is pretty good in almost every other area, and $8,000 is a pretty fair price for him in this field. This will also be his fifth start at the 3M, with the first four resulting in two MCs, a T49 and T34.

Right below these guys is our Euro friend Nicolai Hojgaard. I can’t believe I’m writing up a Euro, but here we are. I really believe this 22-year-old is supremely talented, and the fact he’s playing on TOUR quite a bit this season speaks volumes about his skill. Hojgaard is coming off a T23 at The Open last week and a really impressive T6 at the Scottish two weeks ago. Sure, those were links courses that he’s probably more accustomed to than standard PGA tracks, but still impressive nonetheless when you consider the fields he was playing in. Prior to the two strong outings in Europe, Hojgaard finished T24 at the Rocket Mortgage as well, and I believe he’s finding himself towards the stretch run of the season here. Looking at his rolling numbers over this three-event run, the Dane ranks third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in SG: Ball-Striking, and fourth in SG: Total. Big fan this week.

I don’t care how good Aaron Rai projects or where his number sits in the outright market. I will not play that two-glove-wearing clown ever again. I don’t think in all my years of playing PGA DFS I have ever heard someone say once, “oh man, I can’t believe I faded Aaron Rai this week.” Even at the easiest of tracks, you could look up, and Rai will be +1 through 11 holes with zero birdies. He makes no sense and defies all logic based on how talented of a ball-striker he is, but he’s burned me way too many times, and I refuse to get hurt again.

Next, we have Ryan Fox and Austin Ecroat. Both of whom should project well. Fox seems like he’s way too talented to be $7,600 in this field, considering he was just $7,400 in a major championship field last week. However, he has zero top-10s on the season, which is a bit alarming. He’s certainly in play, but I am not sure if I end up there or not.

I really like Eckroat, who has made seven of his past eight cuts with five top-30 finishes in that stretch. He posted a T16 at this event back in 2021 and feels like a much more polished player now. He ranks seventh in the field in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds as well. At just $7,500, he’s a bit too cheap in this spot.

I have no problem with Garrick Higgo or Doug Ghim, as both have been playing really well for a good amount of time now, despite Ghim’s ugly MC at The Open last week. In three starts at this course, Ghim has a T16 and T18 sandwiched around an MC. Long term, he still rates out really well, ranking 10th in SG: Ball-Striking and eighth in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds.

Higgo has come on of late with a T21 at the John Deere and T19 in Scotland. People forget that he won on TOUR at 21 years old back at the 2021 Palmetto Championship. He’s obviously quite talented and is playing well right now for just $7,400.

Finally, I really like Greyson Sigg this week. He’s been making a lot of cuts lately and played outstanding at this event last year, posting a T7. Despite making only that lone start, only Lee Hodges and Kevin Streelman have averaged more SG: Tee-to-Green per round at TPC Twin Cities than Sigg. His $7,200 price tag is appealing.

Speaking of Hodges, he was miserable last week and is constantly a coin flip, but he shredded this place last year from tee to green en route to his T18 finish and is in play for those with strong stomachs.

That’s all I got this week. If you like this content, please follow me on Twitter, as I usually post late-week thoughts on the slate.

Best of luck this week!

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