The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and other industry metrics to highlight notable golfers.
It’s golf season again! The first event of the 2020 season will consist of a 33-player field of 2019 champions. This is a no-cut event at Plantation Course at Kapalua in Hawaii.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
I did a full breakdown of the course. Check it out.
Key metrics: Par-4 and par-5 scoring, birdie or better scoring, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Approach
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Core Plays
Starting your rosters with Lanto Griffin ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel) allows for great roster flexibility. He has a decent approach game, hitting 70% of GIR over the last 75 weeks. That said, GIR isn’t that important of a stat this week since golfers are hitting GIR at Kapalua at a 13% higher clip than average tour events. Golfers here have historically hit 78% of greens.
While putting has variance in the short term, Griffin has historically been an awesome putter; his overall short game is excellent. His 311.4-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) is also the third-highest mark in the field, giving him plenty of distance to take advantage of these par 5s. Overall, his 0.9 eagles per tournament mark leads the field, and he’s averaged -6.2 adjusted strokes on par 5s, trailing only Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland.
While Patrick Reed ($9,000 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) is surrounded by drama, my money doesn’t have any biases. His iron play was great towards the end of 2019, which is normally the worst part of his game. If his putting is on, he should do well here given how easy it is to hit both fairways and GIR. I’ve also placed an outright on Reed earlier in the week at 14/1.
Tournament Targets
Given Chez Reavie ($7,600 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) is one of the shorter hitters on tour, I’d expect his ownership to be relatively low for a small field like this; he has a low Buzz Score of just 2.3 in our Player Models at the time of writing. There are good marks, though: Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
The wide fairways should help negate Matthew Wolff‘s ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel) accuracy or lack thereof off the tee. His 16.4 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks rank sixth in the field, and he boasts a respectable -1.7 and -5.1 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the same time frame.
$10,000+ Thoughts
In a no-cut event, it’s not hard to get up to the top-priced golfers since there’s no fear of your values missing the cut. If you’re building around any of them in cash games, I’d favor Jon Rahm ($11,400 DraftKings; $11,900 FanDuel) or Justin Thomas ($11,200 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel). Otherwise, I’d lean towards Xander Schauffele ($10,600 DraftKings; $11,400) and Dustin Johnson ($10,100 DraftKings; $11,200) as tournament pivots.
Quick Hits
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,800 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel) would be one of my building blocks if looking for a balanced build. Cantlay leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 50 rounds.
- Paul Casey ($8,800 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) has a top-seven mark in adjusted strokes on par 5s over the last 75 weeks and ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. We just need his putter to show up.
- Collin Morikawa ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 50 rounds. Additionally, he ranks first in birdies per tournament and adjusted strokes on par 4s over the last 75 weeks. It’s possible to fit Morikawa, Cantlay and Casey on the same team this week.
- J.T. Poston ($7,400 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) isn’t the best ball-striker, but the high rate at which golfers hit GIR here should help mask that. He ranks in the top four in LT Putts Per Round (PPR) and boasts a top-10 scrambling rate.
- Dylan Frittelli ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel) ranks in the top half of the field in birdies per tournament and carries a top-eight scrambling rate.
- Sebastian Munoz ($7,100 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel) is close to a core play for me. He had an excellent Fall swing and ranks 10th in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 50 rounds.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Photo credit: USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Patrick Cantlay
