The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
Swing season is underway, and the fields are weak, but golf is back!
Let’s dive in.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics in our PGA Models to discover those that have been the most valuable at Country Club of Jackson. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 52.87 DraftKings points and a +2.62 Plus/Minus with a 54.8% Consistency Rating to the field.
Metrics that tested with at least a +2.00 Plus/Minus:
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +8.85
- Recent Eagles: +6.75
- Long-Term Eagles: +6.74
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +4.81
- Recent Putts Per Round: +3.68
- Recent Driving Distance: +3.66
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +3.56
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.18
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +3.12
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +2.86
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +2.85
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +2.67
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.60
Key metrics: Greens in regulation, birdie or better scoring, par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2019 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
Core Plays
Kyle Stanley ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) has had some time off, but he was in good form at the end of the season, ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds. Additionally, his 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is the eighth-best mark in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 24 golfer. His price should work in just about any roster build you’re looking to do this week.
Sepp Straka ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel) missed the cut by just one stroke last week. If it wasn’t for a disastrous hole in the first round, he likely would’ve been just fine. Straka gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach, but lost 3.5 strokes around the green. He still managed to hit 72.2% of GIR, and I’ll be going back to the well with him this week.
Kevin Streelman ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) is another golfer who missed the cut by just one stroke at Greenbrier. His ball-striking was still solid last week, hitting 80.6% of GIR, but his putter held him back in a big way, averaging 32 Putts Per Round (PPR). Streelman has missed the cut in his last three events, but over his last 12 and 24 rounds, he still ranks seventh and second in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Tournament Targets
Andrew Landry ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) isn’t popping in our models but over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He was around 13% owned on DraftKings last week at the Greenbrier and missed the cut, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that number even lower this week.
Denny McCarthy ($8,900 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) isn’t somewhere I’d go in cash games at his price, but his 14.3 birdies per tournament ranks seventh in the field, and he’s one of a handful of golfers who’ve gained strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s over the past 75 weeks.
Since most people aren’t keen on targeting golfers after a win, Joaquin Niemann ($11,300 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel) will likely have lower ownership, especially at his high price tag. Granted, at this high of a price, you’ll need some placing bonuses for him to hit value.
Quick Hits
- Sungjae Im ($10,500 DraftKings; $11,600 FanDuel) has been piling up strong finishes despite ranking 85th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds. Things will have to click at some point for this guy. He’s been excellent over the last 75 weeks, averaging -5.5 adjusted strokes on par 5s and averaging 0.5 eagles per tournament.
- Scottie Scheffler ($9,900 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel) is another guy I’m drawn to. He’s been dominant in the long term, averaging an absurd 1.2 eagles per tournament, including -2.1 and -6.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s.
- Vaughn Taylor ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,300 FanDuel) has been incredibly consistent with his last missed cut happening at The Heritage in April. And over his last 24 rounds, he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach.
- Aaron Wise ($8,500 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) has the fourth-best LT Adj Rd Score (69.3) in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 20 golfer.
- Sebastian Munoz ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) continues to be consistent. His last missed cut was at the Rocket Mortage Classic, and he turned in a seventh-place performance last week. Additionally, his 14.3 birdies per tournament is the seventh-best mark in the field, and he’s been solid on par 4s and 5s, averaging -0.8 and -4.9 adjusted strokes on them over the last 75 weeks.
- I’ll go back to the well again with Lanto Griffin ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) after he churned out a 13th-place finish last week. His long-term form has been great, hitting 69.5% of GIR while averaging 0.8 eagles per tournament and averaging -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s.
- We have a really small sample for Harry Higgs ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) so his metrics are off the charts. But, looking at his Strokes Gained data from last week, he gained strokes in every facet except for around-the-green.
Anti-Course Fits
Luke List ($8,000 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) finished second here in 2016, but his ball-striking has been awful of late, ranking 143rd and 108th in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. And in the long-term, he’s averaged an abysmal +1.8 adjusted strokes on par 4s and just 11.2 birdies per tournament.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Scottie Scheffler
Photo credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
