The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and other industry metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. This should be a fun event with a much stronger field than the last few tournaments.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
I did a full breakdown of the course. Check it out.
Key metrics: GIR, birdie or better scoring, Driving Distance, par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Scores (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2020 Farmers Insurance Open
Core Plays
I’m making Driving Distance (DD) a priority this week, which puts me on Lanto Griffin ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) with his 311.1 LT DD over the last 75 weeks. Of course, that’s not the only reason to roster him. Griffin also smashes par 4s and par 5s, averaging -1.1 and -6.3 adjusted strokes on them over the same time frame. And since golfers here hit GIR at a lower clip than average tour events, targeting scramblers also makes sense. Overall, Lanto boasts a 63.6% scrambling rate when his shots miss the green.
I haven’t quite settled on a roster at the time of writing, but I’m trying to fit in Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel). Deki has the perfect game for Torrey Pines, sporting a 302-yard LT DD while averaging -1.6 and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s. He also ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. Deki has strong long irons, ranking 14th in proximity from 200-plus yards, which bodes well for this course since roughly 26% of approach shots will come from that range.
My preferred roster construction is two players from the $9,000 range on DraftKings, and I think you can make a strong case for at least four of them; it just depends on how the rest of the team pans out. Deki, Gary Woodland ($9,500 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel), Tony Finau ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,600 FanDuel) and Sungjae Im ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,400 FanDuel) are my preferred targets from that pricing tier when it comes to cash games or single- and three-entry tournaments.
I think they’re mostly interchangeable; which I slot in will depend on where I go elsewhere in my roster.
Tournament Targets
Matthew Wolff ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) has as much distance as anyone in this event, and his adjusted strokes on par 4s and birdies per tournament are top-six marks in this field. Given his ability to pile up birdies and nuke it off the tee, he’s a strong tournament play.
Collin Morikawa ($8,900 DraftKings; $10,300 FanDuel) has the eighth-best LT Adj Rd Score in this strong field, and he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. Granted, it’s a smaller sample size with Morikawa, but over his 18 PGA events, his 18.2 birdies per tournament leads the field, and he still hasn’t missed a cut.
Others: Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman
Favorite Values
Carlos Ortiz ($6,900 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) has made his last seven cuts and ranks 13th in Total Strokes Gained over his last 36 rounds. He’s decently long off the tee with his 303-yard LT DD and has the ability to scramble and save for par.
Bud Cauley ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) isn’t that long off the tee, but he’s made three of the last four cuts here, and he’s an excellent scrambler with his 64.9% rate.
The $7,000 range on DraftKings is filled with a few shorter guys off the tee I still like. One of them is Russell Knox ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel). He ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds, and even though he’s not long off the tee, Knox ranks third and 23rd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus and 200-plus yards, respectively.
Update: Harris English ($7,400 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) is also in play. I prefer him to the previously mentioned golfers with his edge in distance (303.5-yard LT DD) and ranking ninth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 12th in Total Strokes Gained over his last 50 rounds.
The Rest
Rory McIlroy ($11,600 DraftKings; $12,200 FanDuel) might be hard to get to on DraftKings depending on your roster construction preference, but he’s obviously an elite course fit. He’s averaged 315.2 yards off the tee over the last 75 weeks, along with -2.2 and -6.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the same time frame. Further, over his last 50 rounds, he ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in proximity from 175-200 yards.
Scottie Scheffler ($8,800 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) is also a strong course fit with his distance (311.8-yard LT DD), and he also ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. Scheffler’s -3.5 and -6.7 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s are top-two marks in the field.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,600 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) might go overlooked after his 57th-place at the Sony Open. However, his performance wasn’t as bad as it seems. He gained 6.9 strokes Tee-to-Green, including 2.2 strokes on approach, but his putter was a massive issue, losing 7.3 strokes.
Ryan Palmer ($8,000 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) has been solid of late, making every cut since the British Open last July, including four top-20 finishes in his last four events.
Byeong-Hun An ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) may go low owned this week since he carries a Buzz Score of just 2.0 in our Player Models right now. I bet him outright at 70-1, and I think he’s a good fit for this course, owning a 306.1-yard LT DD and ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 50 rounds. He’s also solid around the greens, evidenced by his 63.2% scrambling rate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ownership increase throughout the week, however.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Photo credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama
