The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
This week should be a lot of fun with the field fairly strong once again.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics in our PGA Models to discover those that have been the most valuable at TPC Summerlin, host of this week’s Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 55.95 DraftKings points and a +8.35 Plus/Minus with a 53.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
Metrics that tested with at least a +2.00 Plus/Minus:
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +9.76
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +5.62
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +3.69
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +3.48
- Long-Term Birdies: +3.03
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +2.87
- Long-Term Bogeys: +2.46
- Recent Birdies: +2.30
Key metrics: Par 4 and 5 scoring, birdie or better scoring, greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2019 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Core Plays
Webb Simpson ($10,200 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) ran absurdly cold during the playoffs, but he checks too many boxes this week. For starters, his 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied with Patrick Cantlay for a field best. He also has plenty of upside considering his 0.7 eagles per tournament trails only Scottie Scheffer. Simpson is one of the best par-4 scorers in the field, averaging -2.1 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks.
Matthew Wolff ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) should be able to exploit an easy course like TPC Summerlin. He’s had some strong outings in his short career, and his metrics are excellent in the small sample we have from him. His eagles and birdies per tournament and his adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s all rank in the top five of this field.
There is nothing exciting about rostering Jim Furyk ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel), but he’s incredibly consistent, with his last missed cut at the PGA Championship back in May. And over his past 24 rounds, he ranks sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. At the very least, he looks like a safe bet to make the weekend.
Tournament Targets
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,700 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel) missed the cut last week, which normally doesn’t sit well with DFS players the following week. Deki still hit 77.8% of greens in regulation (GIR), but couldn’t get his putter going. Overall, he’s one of six players in the field who has averaged below-par average adjusted strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks. I’ve got him under tournament targets, but he’s usable in cash games too.
At the time of writing, Rory Sabbatini ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has a Buzz Score of just 3.3 in our Models, so there doesn’t appear to be much chatter on him at the moment. Sabbs has struggled at this course, but it’s mostly been due to a cold putter in those appearances. His last missed cut happened at the 3M Open in July, and over his past 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in the field in total strokes gained.
Gary Woodland ($9,600 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) hasn’t done much since his U.S. Open win in June, but he’s capable of nuking any course at any given time. Since Woodland hasn’t performed well for DFS players lately, I wouldn’t think he’d garner high ownership. Overall, his -5.9 adjusted strokes on par 5s is the third-best mark in the field, and his 15.1 birdies per tournament ranks ninth.
Quick Hits
- Patrick Cantlay ($11,100 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel) has played this course and finished second in 2018 and first in 2017. Course history aside, Cantlay is an excellent fit for the course, averaging -1.0 and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700 DraftKings; $11,600 FanDuel) has historically dominated here, finishing first, seventh, 36th over his last three appearances. More importantly, he boasts some upside with his eagles and birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
- Tony Finau ($9,800 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel) has the same exact marks as Cantlay when it comes to par-4 and par-5 scoring. He’s also coming off a tournament overseas where he hit 92% of GIR.
- Collin Morikawa ($9,500 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) gained 5.5 strokes on approach last week at Safeway and leads this entire field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler ($8,800 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) has averaged 1.2 eagles per tournament and -2.4 and -6.2 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the past 75 weeks. Yep, he’s pretty good.
- Brian Harman ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) doesn’t stand out in many of our metrics, but he’s in solid recent form, boasting a 68.4 recent Adj Rd Score.
- Bud Cauley ($7,400 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has averaged a respectable -4.6 adjusted strokes on par 5s over the past 75 weeks, and he ranks 13th in total strokes gained over his past 24 rounds.
- Sebastian Munoz ($7,400 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) didn’t show any signs of slowing down last week after he won at Sanderson a few weeks ago. His -1.2 and -5.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s are both exceptional marks.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Photo credit: Webb Simpson
