It’s the Dustin Johnson show through three rounds at The Northern Trust this week. DJ has built himself a five-shot lead going into Sunday’s final round after finishing with a ridiculous 40-foot eagle putt on his 18th hole on Saturday. This will be his third lead of 5+ strokes through three rounds in the last 10 years, and he did have one of those get away. Overall, leaders of this amount or more close at about an 82% rate on TOUR, so it is certainly Johnson’s tournament to lose.
The one that got away was a six-shot lead at the WGC-HSBC Champions in 2017. It was wind and weather aided, but also a round where DJ had no birdies and allowed Justin Rose to overtake him from eight shots behind. The precedent is there, but it’s still hard to see happening.
DraftKings Sunday Showdown contests will be really interesting this week, as you can take one of two sides. The first is to take DJ, because you know he will win and still attack to score enough birdies for Showdown. The other side is to fade him, not necessarily because you think he will lose some of his 13 first-place position points, but because you think he may play conservatively or “not to lose,” therefore not scoring enough birdies to be in an optimal lineup.
I honestly think you can play either side of that and it’s hard to argue one way or another. The way you will win tomorrow to me, is less about being right on DJ due to his pretty stable floor of points, and more about how you build out the other five lineup spots. My plays below will highlight guys with upside at lower ownership.
Justin Thomas $10,800
He’s a longshot play at this price, in 34th place currently, but to win the big $20 GPP on DraftKings for $100,000 you have to take some chances. JT, not DJ, is the highest priced player on Sunday’s Showdown Slate. He will be underowned and rightfully so, as many will quickly start their lineups with Johnson at $10,500. The argument for Thomas is that he has improved on his irons each day, peaking at 1.22 strokes gained approach on Saturday, which includes an ugly 18th hole. He lost 1.08 shots off the tee in the third round in addition to 2.74 shots on the greens. He was even par on the three Par 5s on Saturday, and just simply couldn’t score despite his iron play.
JT is a top-flight scorer, with a 62 in reach at any given moment, and I’ll take a gamble or two that he puts it all together on Sunday. He’s the best iron player in the field, and just needs to hit a couple more fairways and a few putts to be a standout in lineups with or without DJ. You’ll get him at around 5% ownership, and there’s enough value out there to fit the other players you need to win.
Daniel Berger $10,200
Berger has been an elite player since the restart and has continued that solid play this week. He is 8th in ball-striking and 12th tee-to-green on the week. He comes into the final round in fifth place, just three shots out of second. He has also shown the ability to score well in final rounds this season. Berger comes into the Sunday round at TPC Boston tied for the second-best Sunday scoring average this season.
I like the idea of pairing Berger with DJ, rather than the more popular DJ/Harris English pairing in this week’s Sunday Showdown. I expect Berger to stay on his game while those around him lack the pedigree to handle Sunday afternoon tee times.
Webb Simpson $9,500
Webb had a great Friday round, which propelled him up the leaderboard heading into the weekend. He started hot on Saturday with a 3-under front nine, but couldn’t get anything going on the final nine. He was 10th in the field tee-to-green in round three, but 56th in strokes gained putting.
Simpson comes into the final round tied for 15th, just three shots outside of the top five. He is tied with Berger for second in final-round scoring average this season and has the experience that many of the others lack on Sundays in this position. I am looking for him to continue to strike it well and bounce back with his putter on Sunday.
Bubba Watson $8,100
We always look to target Bubba on courses where he has historically done well. I overlooked his top-10 finish last year, and a couple of other decent finishes in prior years. Bubba has shown this week that he sees this course well and is striking the ball well enough to compete.
He has done it in all facets of the game, ranking fifth tee-to-green, but also in the top 40 in strokes gained putting. He comes into the final round in eighth place, five shots out of second, and has been scoring all week. He ranks seventh in birdies this week and is positioned to continue scoring well on Sunday.
Chez Reavie $7,200
As we close out the first playoff event tomorrow, many players will be jockeying for position into next week’s BMW Championship. Reavie is currently on the outside looking in, and needs a stellar Sunday to have any shot of playing next week. He will need enough points to move up six spots to secure a place in the second round of the playoffs next week.
I am going to leverage the good play from Reavie this week that has him 11th in ball striking and 17th tee-to-green alongside his motivation to hit the gas pedal on Sunday. I expect to see Chez finish move up the board quite a bit from this current 29th-place standing, and find his way into next week.
Corey Conners $7,000
Much like Reavie, Conners needs to, at the very least, maintain his current standing in order to play next week. He is tied for 34th place, but with the scores available at TPC Boston, he will have to be aggressive to be sure he doesn’t fall from his current 64th position in the FedEx Cup.
Conners has been solid this week at 28th in both ball-striking and tee-to-green. As is usual for his game, he needs to find a hot putter to keep or improve his overall standing. I like the form I have seen from him this week, on top of the fact he truly has something to play for on Sunday.
