Click the link below for Chris Murphy’s Northern Trust recap detailing Dustin Johnson destroying the field at TPC Boston. He also previews the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club, host for this week’s BMW Championship:
Chris Murphy’s Recap and Course Preview
Using Chris’ preview, we have narrowed down what it will take to win this week to four key stats:
Key Stats
- Bogey Avoidance (BA)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG:OTT)
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG:BS)
One minor stat I will also be using this week is Par 4 Scoring 450-500.
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele ($9,900 DraftKings; $11,400 FanDuel) has been as solid as they come since his 78-shot opening round at the Memorial in July. Over his last four starts, Schauffele has finished no worse than tied-25 and has two top-10 finishes to his credit. The 26-year old phenom always has his game ready for the playoffs, and this season is no exception. He enters the BMW Championship ranked 11th in the FedEx points race with his Tour Championship ticket all but locked up.
Schauffele may not wow us with a ton of birdies, but he is exceptional at avoiding bogeys. He leads the field in BA over the last 24 rounds, due in large part to his accurate ball-striking: Schauffele ranks fourth in SG:OTT and ninth in GIR. The California native also ranks 11th in BS and 15th in par 4 scoring 450-500. Moreoer, Schauffele ranks second in both my stat model and the overall FantasyLabs model behind Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm, respectively. He is an absolute steal at his price.
Daniel Berger ($9,700 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel) earns a “run it back” from me this week after posting his fourth finish of third place or better in his last six starts. He has been on fire since February, totaling eight T-13s or better — including six top-five finishes in nine starts. To quote Tin Cup, “You ride her until she bucks you, or don’t ride at all.”
Berger comes into the week ranking fourth in SG:BS and ninth in BA. He also ranks 13th in SG:OTT and 17th in GIR over the last 24 rounds. His 10th-place ranking in par 4 scoring 450-500 was just cheese on top of the “berger” to make him our other core play of the week.
Value Plays
Paul Casey ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) posted a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship three starts ago, but he followed up that performance with a 31st-place finish and 49th-place finish in his last two events. Last season, he posted three top-25 performances during three playoffs starts, including a fifth-place finish at the Tour Championship.
Casey hits a ton of greens, ranking fifth in GIR and ninth in SG:BS. However, his downfall this season has been not making enough birdies: He comes into the week ranking 69th out of 70 players in BoB%. Luckily for him, BA outweighs BoB% by a large scale this week. Casey is one of the best players in the field at avoiding bogeys, ranking seventh in BA.
He currently sits in 64th-place in the FedEx points race and will likely need a top-three finish at Olympia Fields in order to jump into the top-30 FedEx standings and earn his spot in the Tour Championship next week.
Russell Henley ($7,800 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) seems to find his way into many of our recent DFS recommendations. He has posted two straight top-10 finishes and has three top-10s in his last five starts.
Henley ranks first in both GIR and SG:BS while ranking third in BA. He also ranks 21st in SG:OTT and 29th in par 4 scoring 450-500 despite being one of the shorter hitters on tour. Henley has battled putting woes for much of his career, but is in good recent form coming off back-to-back weeks gaining 3.4 SG:P or better. Like Casey, he will likely need a top-three finish to make the Tour Championship.
Sleeper Plays
Kevin Streelman ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel) has posted two top-10s since the restart, including a runner-up finish at the Travelers in late June. He ranks 28th in the FedEx points race and is looking for his first return trip to the Tour Championship since 2013.
Streelman ranks 12th in par 4 scoring 450-500, 28th in SG:BS and 30th in GIR over the last 24 rounds. The 41-year old PGA Tour veteran also ranks 31st in SG:OTT and 40th in BA. In order to find success at Olympia Fields, Streelman will need to find his putting stroke: He has lost SG:P in three of his last four starts.
Other Targets
- Jon Rahm ($11,000 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel) ranks third in SG:OTT, fourth in BA, 12th in GIR and 17th in SG:BS. He has finished tied for 13th or better in each of his last four starts — including an outright win at the Memorial.
- Collin Morikawa ($9,500 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel) ranks seventh in SG:BS, ninth in SG:OTT, 10th in GIR and 13th in BA. He has two wins in his previous five starts.
- Matthew Wolff ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) ranks fifth in both SG:OTT and SG:BS, eighth in GIR and 23rd in par 4 scoring 450-500. He has finished tied for 12th or better in each of his last four starts, including a fourth-place finish at the PGA.
- Abraham Ancer ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) ranks 10th in BA, 18th in GIR, 19th in SG:OTT and 21st in SG:BS. He has cracked the top-15 in four of his last seven starts.
