Jim Herman capped off a phenomenal scoring weekend to secure the third PGA Tour win of his career last week at the Wyndham Championship. He held off one of our core plays, Billy Horschel, in a battle that came down to the last hole. The final putt at the Wyndham ended the PGA Tour’s 2019/20 season and we now head into the playoffs, where the top-125 FedEx point leaders make the trip up north to Boston.
We’ll take a look at what type of game these players need to bring this week to hoist the winner’s trophy.
Key Stats
TPC Boston will be home for 125 golfers this week and it will play as a par 71 from around 7,250 yards. Although we have only three par 5s this week, Par 5 Scoring correlated well with the top finishers of previous tournaments at TPC Boston. Ball striking (SG:BS) and greens in regulation (GIR) once again proves to be a key stat as these players will be hitting approaches to less than average size greens.
Birdies or better (BoB%), bogey avoidance (BA) and strokes gained: tee to green (SG:T2G) round out our key stats for the week.
Core Plays
No matter where you look, Jon Rahm ($10,000 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel) will be there this week. He has great form, which includes a win at the Memorial and a tie for 13th at the PGA Championship. He also has a great history, including a fourth-place finish at TPC Boston in 2017.
The No. 1 golfer in the world has his game firing on all cylinders as he comes into the week ranked fifth in SG:T2G. He’s one of the best Par 5 Scorers in the field, ranking sixth over the last 24 rounds. Rahm ranks 12th in both BoB% and GIR while ranking eighth in BA. He’ll have lots of birdie looks this week and will look to regain his putting stroke he had at the start of the year.
Daniel Berger ($8,900 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020. He has placed 13th or better in seven of his last eight starts including a win at the Charles Schwab and runner-up at St Jude. Over his last four starts at TPC Boston, he’s posted a T-12 and a T-35. Berger ranks seventh in the FedEx points race and will look to improve his starting position for the Tour Championship in the next two weeks. The Tour Championship will begin with 25 golfers receiving strokes for their play through the year with first place starting at -10.
The former Florida State Seminole ranks third in the field in SG:T2G, SG:BS and BoB% over the last 24 rounds. He ranks sixth in par 4 scoring 450-500 while ranking ninth in BA. Berger has gained 6.5 SG:T2G or better in four of his five starts since the restart.
It’s the perfect week for Berger to prove that he belongs in the discussion as one of the best golfers in the world.
Value Plays
Matthew Wolff ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) is coming off of three straight cuts made placing 22nd or better in each of the three. He finished with a closing round of 65 at the PGA Championship, where he picked up fourth-place honors. He has no history at TPC Boston, which could keep his ownership down.
The 21-year-old Oklahoma State product needed to improve his approach game to become a more consistent golfer. It seems he’s righted that ship as he has gained 1.8 SG:App or better in five of his last six starts, including 7.3 strokes gained at the PGA. Wolff ranks fifth in the field in BoB% and seventh in SG:BS. He also ranks 16th in both GIR and par 5 scoring while ranking 23rd in SG:T2G.
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Wolff
The young cowboy ranks 34th in the FedEx points race and will look to rise to the coveted top 30 over the next two weeks to secure a spot in the Tour Championship.
Russell Henley ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel) capped off a great week at the Wyndham with a final round 65 to finish ninth. He’ll need another top finish this week if he wants to make the field of 70 at the BMW Championship next week as he currently sits at No. 101 in the FedEx points race. Henley does have some history at TPC Boston as the runner-up in 2014.
The Georgia Bulldog has lit up the stat sheet, ranking first in the field in both SG:BS and GIR over the past 24 rounds. He also ranks second in both BA and SG:T2G, placing him as of the best plays of the week stats wise. Henley will look to continue his hot putting from last week where he gained 3.6 SG:P — his best putting performance in more than a year.
Sleeper Plays
Dylan Frittelli ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) has been playing some really good golf lately. Over his past four starts, he’s finished 33rd or better. Frittelli ranks 50th in the FedEx points race and will look to improve his position for a chance to play in the Tour Championship in two weeks.
The South African has gained 4.4 SG:T2G or better in each of his last four starts. He ranks second in the field in par 4 scoring 450-500 and 10th in SG:T2G. Frittelli ranks 27th in BoB% while ranking 35th in SG:BS. Like Henley, Frittelli will look to carry his putting performance over from last week, when he gained 3.2 SG:P.
Sam Burns ($6,900 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel) is another sleeper play with no course history, which should keep his ownership down. He’s made five of his past six cuts since the restart, finishing no worse than 32nd. Burns is ranked 103rd in the FedEx points race and will need a very high finish and some luck to move into the top 70.
The LSU Tiger has gained 4.2 SG:T2G or better in four of his last five starts, including 6.4 strokes gained last week. He ranks ninth in par 5 scoring and 17th in BoB% while ranking 27th in GIR. Burns has gained 3.2 SG:P or better in three of last four starts and will need to keep his putter hot for a chance to play at the BMW Championship next week.
Other Targets
- Justin Thomas ($11,300 DraftKings; $11,900 FanDuel) ranks first in SG:T2G, second in SG:BS, fourth in BA, seventh in par 5 scoring and 10th in BoB%. Won at TPC Boston in 2017.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel) ranks first in BoB%, fifth in par 4 scoring 450-500, 13th in SG:BS and 18th in GIR. Won at TPC Boston in 2018.
- Jason Day ($9,300 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) ranks third in par 5 scoring, seventh in BA and SG:T2G and 21st in BoB%. Three top-15s over his past five starts at TPC Boston. Four straight top 7s or better.
- Patrick Reed ($9,000 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel) ranks fifth in par 5 scoring, 13th in BA and 20th in BoB%. Three top sixes or better over last four starts at TPC Boston.
- Doc Redman ($7,400 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel) ranks third in GIR, ninth in par 4 scoring 450-500 and SG:BS and 25th in SG:T2G. Finished third last week at The Wyndham.
- Cameron Davis ($6,300 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel) ranks 16th in BoB%, 24th in SG:T2G and 35th in par 5 scoring. Two straight top 15s.
Pictured above: Jon Rahm (Warren Little/Getty Images)
