PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Sony Open

The PGA TOUR stays in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open, which will be played at Waialae Country Club (par 70, 7,044 yards, Bermuda greens) in Honolulu. This venue has been the only home of the Sony Open since this event was added to the PGA TOUR schedule in 1965.

Si Woo Kim is the defending champion, finishing at -18 last season, one shot clear of Hayden Buckley. After the limited field at the Sentry last week, there will be 144 players competing at the Sony Open, and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% — and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for The Sony Open

J.T. Poston ($9,100)

Poston closed the Sentry with an 8-under 65 on Sunday en route to a T5 finish, impressively marking his sixth top-10 finish in his last 10 starts. Poston’s recent success can be attributed to a truly elite combination of strong work with both his irons and putter.

The 30-year-old has collectively gained strokes on approach and with his putter in five of his last seven starts, setting him up perfectly for Waialae, which is a second-shot course that requires a brilliant showing with your flat stick if you want to contend. Seven of the past 10 champions at this par 70 have ranked top-three in SG: Putting during their wins, and Poston currently ranks 14^th on the PGA TOUR in the metric.

Poston posted a solid T20 finish at the Sony Open last season, but should outdo that performance and contend this weekend, with the 30-year-old heading to Waialae in arguably the best form of his career.

Poston boasts the eighth-best Perfect% in our simulations but is only the 11^th most-expensive option on DraftKings this week.

Byeong Hun An ($8,700)

An finished T12 in his Sony Open debut last season and brings similar upside this week. The 32-year-old shined at the Sentry this past week while ranking fifth in SG: Putting and sixth in both total birdies and par-four efficiency for the event.

An has now only missed two cuts in his last 12 starts and has racked up seven top-25 finishes during this time. Furthermore, he ranks sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green when we analyze this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models.

An ranks 12^th in Perfect% this week and is one of the better high-end values to consider for the Sony Open.

Cam Davis ($8,500)

Carrying the sixth-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models, Davis is an excellent value at this sub $9,000 salary. While the 28-year-old finished T52nd of 58 players at the Sentry last week, Davis posted a final round 8-under 65. Looking to build off this terrific round, the bomber should get back on track this week at Waialae, where he has made four consecutive cuts with no finishes worse than T31. Prior to last week, Davis was playing incredible golf, with seven top-12 finishes in his previous nine starts worldwide.

Davis ranks 17^th in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in bogey avoidance over his 50 rounds. Furthermore, he ranks fourth in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at course that are home to Bermuda greens. Davis brings great upside this week and could get overlooked coming off the lackluster showing at the Sentry.

Matt Kuchar ($7,800)

Kuchar loves teeing it up at Waialae. In his last 10 starts at the Hawaiian track, Kuchar has finished T13 or better eight times, including a four-shot victory in 2019 and back-to-back T7 finishes the last two years. Of all the players in this week’s field who have competed at Waialae more than once, Kuchar ranks second in Total Strokes Gained at Waialae via FantasyLabs’ PGA Models.

The veteran returns to Honolulu this week as the maker of nine straight cuts, with three top-20 finishes in his most recent five starts, most notably with a runner-up finish at the World Wide Technology Championship in November.

Kuchar has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts and has top-10 upside this weekend in this type of form as a ball striker.

The 34-year-old’s salary on DraftKings has notably decreased by $1,100 since his last start, and Kuchar ranks 15^th in Perfect% in FantasyLabs’ PGA Models but is only the 22^nd highest-priced player on the board.

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