PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Next up on the PGA TOUR calendar is the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Vidanta Vallarta (par 71, 7,456 yards, paspalum greens) has been the home of this tournament since it was added to the annual PGA TOUR schedule a few years ago. This is a field of 132 golfers, and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Stephan Jaeger ($9,800)

Jaeger has been excellent at Vidanta, finishing T15th in 2022 and then T18th last season. Now, the 34-year-old returns to the Mexican track as the maker of 20 consecutive cuts, which is a run that includes 13 top-30 finishes, most recently with a T3 at the Farmers Open last month.

Jaeger sits 69 spots higher in the world golf rankings than when he visited Vidanta last year and impressively ranks first in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds. Furthermore, he ranks 14th in SG: Off-The-Tee and ninth in par-4 efficiency during this time, making him a perfect match for Vidanta. Both of the first two winners at this par 71 have finished the event top-two in both SG: Off-The-Tee and pa-4 efficiency.

While Jaeger is the seventh most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, he boasts the third highest Perfect% in our PGA Models and is one of the best spends for the Mexico Open.

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Austin Eckroat ($8,000)

Coming off a missed cut at the Phoenix Open, Eckroat shouldn’t be overly popular, and Vidanta is a terrific place for him to get back on track. Eckroat had made six straight cuts before that speedbump at TPC Scottsdale, three of which were top-25 results. The 25-year-old is a top-notch driver – he ranks 12th in SG: Off-The-Tee when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models – and boasts a compelling resume at courses that feature paspalum putting surfaces. In five career starts at venues that are home to this rare green type, Eckroat has made four cuts, including a pair of top-12 finishes and a T49 in his Mexico Open debut last season.

Eckroat sits 100 spots higher in the world golf rankings this time around and should easily outdo himself with a much higher finish this week. Eckroat carries the ninth-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 25th most expensive player on DraftKings.

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Vincent Norrman ($7,600)

With Vidanta being a course that favors bombers, Norrman is a must-have value play at this affordable salary. The Swede ranks eighth in SG: Off-The-Tee in our PGA Models when we compare this field’s long-term form, and while gaining strokes in every major category, Norrman finished T18th at Vidanta in his Mexico Open debut last season.

The 26-year-old now returns to the venue 279 spots higher in the world golfing rankings, thanks to a very impressive run of golf over the last year. Norrman has advanced to the weekend in 12 of his past 16 starts worldwide, including wins at Barbasol Championship and Horizon Irish Open.

Norrman brings top-10 upside in this weak field and presents the 19th-highest Perfect% our models, but is only the 30^th most-expensive golfer on the slate.

Tyler Duncan ($6,900)

Duncan carries the highest Perfect% in our PGA Models among players priced under $7,000 and is an appealing punt play. Overall, the veteran ranks 24^th in Perfect% but is only the 45^th most-expensive option on DraftKings. Duncan missed the cut in his lone start at Vidanta two years ago but is a much more polished player now, sitting a whopping 194 spots higher in the golf rankings than when he made his Mexico Open debut in 2022.

The 34-year-old has made 10 of his last 14 cuts and has produced four top-20 finishes during this span. Plus, Duncan ranks fourth in par four efficiency and eighth in SG: Off-The-Tee over his past 50 rounds, and he owns a 9-for-12 record in terms of made cuts at courses that present paspalum greens for his career.

Duncan should, at the minimum, make the cut this week and is only expected to be around 4% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.