PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Cognizant Classic

To kick off the Florida swing, we head to PGA National (par 71, 7,147 yards, Bermuda greens) in Palm Beach Gardens for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. This event is formerly known as the Honda Classic, and PGA National has been the home of this PGA TOUR stop since 2007. The Cognizant Classic is a field of 144 players, and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Russell Henley ($10,200)

With a second-shot course that features Bermuda greens in PGA National on the menu this week, Henley is an easy choice. Four of the past five winners at this venue have finished the event top seven in SG: Approach. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Henley ranks sixth in the metric.

Furthermore, the veteran is a true Bermuda specialist, ranking 10th in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at tracks that feature this type of putting surface. Three of Henley’s four PGA TOUR victories have come at courses that are home to Bermuda greens, including a win at PGA National in 2014. Overall, in nine appearances at the difficult par 71, the 34-year-old has made eight cuts and produced three top-10 finishes.

Henley has made nine straight cuts coming into this week – which is a run that includes four top-10 finishes – and carries the fifth highest Perfect% in our PGA models.

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Mathieu Pavon ($8,700)

Pavon should make some serious noise in his first attempt at PGA National this week. This track requires elite work with your irons if you want to contend, and no player on the PGA TOUR this season has gained more strokes on approach than Pavon. Plus, the French professional ranks seventh in par-3 performance when we compare this field’s recent form in our PGA Models, which is very encouraging for PGA National, where three of the past five victors have finished the tournament top-six in par-3 efficiency.

Pavon is fresh off a T3 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which comes after he secured the first PGA TOUR victory of his career at the Farmers Open. The 31-year-old has only missed one cut in his last 11 starts worldwide and has impressively notched seven top-10 finishes during this run. Despite carrying the seventh-highest Perfect% in our PGA models, Pavon is only the 17th most expensive option on DraftKings, showing you he is vastly underpriced for his upside.

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Adam Svensson ($7,700)

Svensson is a sensational target at this salary – he boasts the 17th-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 27th most expensive golfer on DraftKings. Svensson is coming off his best finish of the season with a T10 at the Genesis Invitational, in which he generated 6.7 strokes from tee to green. The Canadian has been very consistent, only missing two cuts in his last 17 starts, and has racked up seven top-25 finishes over this span.

Svensson has never missed a cut at PGA National in three tries at the track – most notably with a T9 two years ago – and brings great upside relative to his affordable price tag. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Svensson presents +4000 odds to win the Cognizant Classic, which are better odds than Denny McCarthy, who is far more expensive for DFS purposes at $8,900 on DraftKings.

Thorbjorn Olesen ($7,700)

Disregard that Olesen missed the cut in his lone start at PGA National and attack the Dane with confidence at this price point. Olesen’s missed cut at PGA National came a decade ago, and he should redeem himself with a high finish at the Florida venue this week.

The 34-year-old is a full-time player on the DP World Tour, and he notably leads the entire circuit in scoring average this season. When we exclude his withdrawal from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October, Olesen has carded six top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts worldwide, including a dominating six-shot win at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship at the end of last month, which marked the eighth DP World Tour title of Olesen’s career.

He ranks third in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models and he shouldn’t come with much ownership this week, given his lack of history at PGA National and that Olesen is a player that doesn’t compete on the PGA TOUR often.