PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The PGA TOUR remains in California for the third straight event with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. After being a full sized event since it was added to the PGA TOUR schedule, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will only feature 80 golfers this week and no cut as one of the PGA TOUR’s signature events this season. Plus, after featuring three-courses, this tournament will only feature two this week. Every golfer will play one round on both Pebble Beach Golf Links (par 72, 6,972 yards, POA greens) and Spyglass Hill (par 72, 7,041 yards, POA greens), and then the final two rounds will be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Xander Schauffele ($10,000)

Schauffele ranks second in our PGA models in Perfect% and is the best lucrative target for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The 30-year-old has been outstanding in the new year, carding three top-10 finishes. Schauffele hasn’t shot over par in 17 rounds, and during his T9 at the Farmers Open this past week, he led the field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and par four efficiency. Schauffele has only competed in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am once and missed the cut, but this came all the way back in 2017. More recently, the California Native teed it up at Pebble Beach Golf Links for the 2019 U.S. Open, when Schauffele contend for the major, finishing T3.

The former Gold medalist is a true POA specialist: He ranks second in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with this type of putting surface, including a victory at the Travelers in 2022, and he should be in the mix for a win come Sunday afternoon.

Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,100)

Hojgaard is in the midst of an outstanding run of golf. After finishing runner up at the Nebank Golf Challenge, the Danish professional went onto win the DP World Tour Championship by two strokes in November. Then, to begin the new year, Hojgaard has finished T25 at the Dubai Invitational, T7 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and last but not least, runner up at the Farmers Open last week, in which he only finished one stroke shy of winner Matthieu Pavon. During that near win at Torrey Pines last week, Hojgaard gained strokes in every major category and led the field in par four efficiency. This incredible five-start run has vaulted the 22-year-old up 54 spots in the world golf rankings to a career-best No. 30.

Hojgaard is severely underpriced for his current form and is one of the best values on the board this week despite this being his debut at Pebble Beach. Hojgaard carries the 16th-best Perfect% in our PGA models but is the 19th-most expensive option on DraftKings.

Byeong Hun An ($8,000)

After taking the fall off, An has looked sensational in 2024, finishing T4 at the Sentry and then runner up at the Sony Open. Notably, the 32-year-old gained strokes in every major category during both these finishes, and he shot under par in all eight of these rounds for an excellent average score of 66.1. Just these two starts alone have moved An up 21 spots in the world golf rankings, and he ranks seventh in 400-450-yard par four efficiency over his last 50 rounds, which bodes well for Pebble Beach Golf Links, where five of the 10 par fours fall in this range.

After finishing T16 at Pebble Beach for the 2019 U.S. Open, An carded a solid T37 finish at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In far better form this time around – he is 158 spots higher in the world golf rankings – An has the potential for a top-10 finish. While he is the 21^st most expensive player on DraftKings this week, the veteran carries the 18^th highest Perfect% in our PGA models.

Nick Dunlap ($6,900)

Dunlap is rating as an elite value in our PGA models this week. Despite being the 48th-most expensive player on DraftKings, the 20-year-old boasts the fourth-highest Perfect% of this 80-man field, which is a higher score than players like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Max Homa, just to name a few. Dunlap came on the scene two weeks ago, when he became the first amateur in 33 years to win a PGA TOUR event at the American Express. Included in this victory was a 12-under 60 at La Quinta Country Club during the third round, which is the lowest score ever posted by an amateur at a PGA TOUR event. Dunlap officially became a professional following his breakthrough win at the American Express, and he will now look to carry this momentum over to Pebble Beach.

While this will be his debut at the iconic track, Dunlap is the 72nd-ranked golfer in the world right now, and the reward extremely outweighs the risk with him priced this cheaply, especially with no cut to worry about this week. As an added bonus, FantasyLabs is expecting Dunlap to be a forgotten man this week, with our projections forecasting Dunlap to be less than a 1% owned on DraftKings.